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[Other] Topic: Django's AFL 2012 thread |
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Luckylunchbox |
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#101 Posted: 5/4/2012 1:27:30 AM  GL |
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Zman01 |
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#102 Posted: 5/4/2012 2:19:31 AM Pies win by 12 goals |
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#103 Posted: 5/4/2012 8:31:48 AM
YTD
20-26-0 | Multi 0-4
-1.28
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#104 Posted: 5/4/2012 10:44:44 PM
Last meeting at Docklands in 2010 was a 27 point win to Brisbane, in 09 a draw at the G and a 43 point win at home for the Lions.
Kind of same scenario as last night. Essendon coming off an extended break may be a little off and underestimate the Lions who are due to bounce back from some poor performances up forward, roof is closed at Etihad so weather is a non issue.
Although that tough game last week in the heavy wet conditions may cause some tired legs for the Lions late in the game. As a Lions fan my usual instinct is to lean against them. Bombers do have the capacity for a blowout here, but like last night the line is a little high to take with any confidence so I'm gonna chance the 1-39 and hope Lions show something today but don't bloody pull the upset of the round!
They have enough talent on the field to be competitive they just need to put it together for 4 quarters.
Bombers by 32 points.
Essendon 1-39 1u @ 2.40 (sportsbet)
Selwood and Lonergan late outs for Cats, line has dropped a few points, not sure about this game now. Melbourne have kept it close the past few weeks when they were expected to be blown out. Cats off that waterpolo game in Brisbane.
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#105 Posted: 5/4/2012 11:35:37 PM 
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yysmer |
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#106 Posted: 5/5/2012 12:18:38 AM
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Luckylunchbox |
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#107 Posted: 5/5/2012 12:21:22 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by yysmer:
what does 1-39 mean?
There winning margin |
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#108 Posted: 5/5/2012 1:05:20 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by yysmer:
what does 1-39 mean?
As LL said winning margin, we have margin props on AFL as well as the spreads. They are shown as 1-39 or 40+ basically a team winning margin over/under 6.5 goals
Aussie books offer them on NBA too 1-10 and 11+ they can be good value especially when the spread falls about halfway between them and the fave covering isn't feeling like a smart bet and the dog winning su is highly unlikely.
I think I may have cooked it today, should have gone on Lions pessimism instead of playing the stats.
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#109 Posted: 5/5/2012 2:25:50 AM 
Cats 1-39
YTD
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-2.68
Not the right games to take margins on.
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#110 Posted: 5/5/2012 2:38:41 AM
Dockers -36.5 1u @ 1.91 (sportingbet)
Freo by 55 points.
Swans 1-39 is almost becoming a cert play of the week, Crows usually match up well with Swans. I don't see Swans winning by much more than the 24 point spread. Swans by 16.
Sydney 1-39 1u @ 2.15 (sportsbet)
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#111 Posted: 5/5/2012 5:03:07 AM 
Hawks -23.5 1u @ 1.98 (pinnacle)
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#112 Posted: 5/5/2012 5:25:20 AM 
How the hell do Suns play like this without Ablett, arguably the best player in the comp and to rub it in on SEN as the game ends there's a plug for gamblers helpline. So I'm going to buy beer, come home and gamble some more.
Dockers -36.5 1u @ 1.91 (sportingbet)
YTD
20-29-0 | Multi 0-4
-3.68
Lets go Swannies and Hawks.
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#113 Posted: 5/5/2012 8:22:10 AM
Hawks 
YTD
21-30-0 | Multi 0-4
-3.7 
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#114 Posted: 5/5/2012 11:28:14 AM 
Blues -90.5 1u @ 2.10 (sportsbet)
Poo Power +5.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet)
Weagles 1-39 1u @ 2.25 (sportsbet) |
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#115 Posted: 5/5/2012 12:03:10 PM
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#116 Posted: 5/5/2012 12:03:49 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:
Carlton vs GWS Over 197.5 1u @ 1.90 (bet365)
fixed
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#117 Posted: 5/6/2012 6:52:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Django: Blues -90.5 1u @ 2.10 (sportsbet) Carlton vs GWS Over 197.5 1u @ 1.90 (bet365) Poo Power +5.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet) Weagles 1-39 1u @ 2.25 (sportsbet)
YTD
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-5.45
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#118 Posted: 5/11/2012 5:50:56 AM
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#119 Posted: 5/11/2012 8:43:54 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Django: Hawthorn 40-59 .4u @ 4.10
Hawks by 66
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#120 Posted: 5/11/2012 10:07:55 PM
Tigers -2.5 .5u @ 2.00 (bet365)
Crows ML .5u @ 2.23 (pinnacle)
Essendon -7.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet)
Collingwood -26.5 1u @ 2.01 (pinnacle)
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#121 Posted: 5/12/2012 8:16:50 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Django: Gold Coast Suns 1-39 1u @ 2.20 (sportsbet) Tigers -2.5 .5u @ 2.00 (bet365) Crows ML .5u @ 2.23 (pinnacle) Essendon -7.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet) Collingwood -26.5 1u @ 2.01 (pinnacle)
YTD
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-3.92
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#122 Posted: 5/12/2012 10:20:44 PM
Western Bulldogs +20.5 1u @ 1.97 (pinny)
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#123 Posted: 5/12/2012 11:04:25 PM
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#124 Posted: 5/13/2012 1:51:25 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Django: Western Bulldogs +20.5 1u @ 1.97 (pinny) Bulldogs ML .4u @ 4.29 (pinny)
YTD
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-1.63
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kiwipride1983 |
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#125 Posted: 5/13/2012 2:02:53 AM |
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