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Author: [Other] Topic: Django's AFL 2012 thread
Django
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#151
Posted: 5/19/2012 2:36:05 PM
Selwood, Schofield and Naitanui back in for the Eagles.

Surprisingly, Eagles haven't beaten the Saints since 2008 but both sides are in different shape now. Saints finals window have closed and Eagles look to be a top 4 side as long as performances like last week at the G don't become the norm.

Eagles off a pretty poor performance against the Bombers on the Saturday, Saints off a Monday night game, Subiaco is a large ground, forecast is a sunny day and 25'c, considerably warmer than Melbourne this year, think Eagles will bounce back, come out extremely hard and run Saints off their feet who will tire from the short turnaround and could end up being a 10+ goal thrashing.

Eagles -17.5 2u @ 1.93 (pinnacle)

Adelaide are 1-9 from their last 10 at Docklands, last win being a 72 point win over Carlton in '09. Carlton were pretty poor last week, Adelaide beat Geelong handily. Think Blues get home in a reasonably close one, although with Adelaide's form an upset won't be a shock.

Carlton 1-39 .5u @ 2.36 (sportingbet)

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#152
Posted: 5/20/2012 5:20:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:



Eagles -17.5 2u @ 1.93 (pinnacle)

Carlton 1-39 .5u @ 2.36 (sportingbet)


YTD
34-39-0 | Multi 0-5
+0.72
quote
Django
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#153
Posted: 5/24/2012 8:28:38 PM
Cats 1-39 .5u @ 2.25 (sportsbet)
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Django
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#154
Posted: 5/25/2012 9:32:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Cats 1-39 .5u @ 2.25 (sportsbet)


YTD
35-39-0 | Multi 0-5
+1.35
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Django
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#155
Posted: 5/25/2012 3:28:27 PM
Forecast is woeful for Melbourne, 15'c, cloudy, scattered showers all day and fairly windy. Richmond have been fairly competitive, beating Sydney at the MCG albeit Sydney don't tend to play well there and they were without Goodes. Lucky not to cover/possibly win SU against the Bombers. I think Hawks get a close win here in an ugly game of wet weather football.

Hawks 1-39 1u @ 2.15

Saints off the road trip to WA on the Sunday game and off the Monday night game. Swans had a training drill against the woeful Demons. Swans won the last 2, their last encounter at Docklands in the Elimination Final by 25 points. Swans are one of the inform teams for the season, and running much more consistently than St.Kilda I expect the Saints to tire late in the game and Swans to get home comfortably, around 30-40 points.

Sydney Swans ML 2u @ 1.92 (pinnacle)

Port Adelaide off a miraculous 4th quarter comeback win against the Roos last week, think they'll be fired up for this game against Gold Coast, who pipped them by a few points at $15 dogs in round 5 last year. Port have turned their poor form from past seasons, while the Suns have shown glimpses of good football, being competitive with Freo (who can be poor away and were without Sandilands) North, (who suck) and Bombers (who took their foot off the pedal) then we have the Suns who were belted by Brisbane, lost to GWS, were lucky not to get thrashed by the Bulldogs in favourable conditions.

Port -12.5 1u @ 1.95 (pinnacle)

In the evening games, think Essendon will brutalise the Giants and the Crows get another respectable win over the Pies.


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#156
Posted: 5/25/2012 9:22:28 PM

like all of them. 

GC is missing plenty of players and port have close to everyone available. 

Also like Adeleiade. Think the Giants might cover. Stronger side this week and hard to see essendon getting up for this one similar to when they went to the GC, plus it is windy which should cut down scoring a bit.
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#157
Posted: 5/26/2012 12:29:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by binomial:


like all of them. 

GC is missing plenty of players and port have close to everyone available. 

Also like Adeleiade. Think the Giants might cover. Stronger side this week and hard to see essendon getting up for this one similar to when they went to the GC, plus it is windy which should cut down scoring a bit.


Hopefully I'm on the mark with em today, was a pain digging myself out of that hole, don't want to have to do that again this year.

Essendon aren't resting players and expecting to cruise to an easy win like friggen Carlton did. I think the GC let off was an anomaly. GWS got belted by Brisbane by 90 odd points, pretty sure the Bombers will be looking to stick it up Sheeds and get a good percentage boost. The conditions and GWS at home may very well lead to a closer than expected game, although I wouldn't bet on it. Bombers to cover, over and maybe a small shot on -99.5 for me.

Might make Adelaide a 4u play, depending on how I go this arvo. I really like them to belt Collingwood but that could be anti-Collingwood bias and a bit of bandwagoning. Replaced Murphy with Dangerfield in my fantasy team this week. Could go awry.

I thought I recognised your nick, I know you from somewhere else mate


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Django
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#158
Posted: 5/26/2012 3:12:05 AM
I'm too wasted to calculate my balance from the completed games. I will sort that later. Strangely enough I'm not too wasted to make some more bets.

Crows -13.5 2u @ 1.98 (pinny)
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#159
Posted: 5/26/2012 3:31:07 AM
Bombers -67.5 1u @ 2.01 (pinny)
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#160
Posted: 5/26/2012 5:34:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:



Bombers -67.5 1u @ 2.01 (pinny)

Hawks 1-39 1u @ 2.15

Sydney Swans ML 2u @ 1.92 (pinnacle)

Crows -13.5 2u @ 1.98 (pinny) 

Port -12.5 1u @ 1.95 (pinnacle)



YTD
37-42-0 | Multi 0-5
-1.69

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#161
Posted: 5/26/2012 6:13:17 PM
Just realised I made an error, didn't see the games last night, just checked the results properly and I see they failed to cover by  2 points assumed from my pinnacle balance Essendon bet won, but that was from something else.

Bombers -67.5 1u @ 2.01 (pinny)

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#162
Posted: 5/26/2012 8:09:09 PM
i like north melbourne and west coast today
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Django
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#163
Posted: 5/26/2012 9:14:26 PM
I'm a Lions fan and am of the mind I shouldn't bet on their games, I tend to pessimistically fade em and it never works out

North should def win SU and will most likely cover I would think North will be pretty pumped up after last week and Lions haven't shown anything to warrant backing.

Like the Eagles 1-39, not keen on a 20 point handicap after Eagles nearly getting run over last week. These derby/rivalry games can be close and Fremantle are much improved and with Ross Lyon, playing more accountable defensive/football, if Freo wasn't off a trip to Tassie I'd probably take them at +20

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#164
Posted: 5/26/2012 9:20:38 PM
think i'll multi the two moneylines with cowboys +12.5 in the footy
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Django
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#165
Posted: 6/1/2012 4:41:27 AM
Other than the draw last year Saints have had the wood over the Tigers, Saints off 3 consecutive 6 day breaks but they play Etihad better than Richmond.

St.Kilda ML 1u @ 2.00 (pinnacle)
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Django
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#166
Posted: 6/1/2012 7:35:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:



St.Kilda ML 1u @ 2.00 (pinnacle)



YTD
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-4.07

Going backwards again
Fucken Tigers, was a cracking game though.
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#167
Posted: 6/1/2012 7:46:10 PM
That was meant to be a
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#168
Posted: 6/1/2012 9:03:26 PM
Hey Django, keep up the good work given the lack of AFL contributors here, I'm sure you'll bounce back...

Could you accept my friend request because your setting is set so I can't PM...

Oh what do you think of Freemantle v Adelaide today? 
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Django
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#169
Posted: 6/1/2012 9:34:03 PM
Cheers mate. Hopefully I get it back this weekend. Past few weeks I had some bets I was really confident on and lowballed it with half unit bets being cautious not to dig myself into an even bigger hole get back in front, make some bigger plays on the next round games which seemed a bit iffy and not surprisingly, get burnt.

I'm sure it's the default setting on the forum, needing to be friends to PM. But I haven't received any friends request notification and I just checked my account, there are no friends requests pending.  Maybe covers is being derp?

I think Adelaide should bounce back off that unexpected loss to and win/cover. I'm glad I laid off taking the Eagles 1-39 as Fremantle are playing awful negative defensive minded Ross Lyon football and I don't see them kicking a winning score if Adelaide play true to form. Weather is fine in Perth and the total is 168.5, usually what totals are capped at for guaranteed Melbourne wet weather.
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Django
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#170
Posted: 6/1/2012 10:16:32 PM
GWS first trip to Geelong, North Melbourne and Brisbane had 7 goal first quarters against the Giants and Eagles kicked 11.
Geelong should definitely win the quarter by 3.2

Geelong 1Q Line -19.5 1u @ 1.90 (sportsbet)
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Django
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#171
Posted: 6/1/2012 11:20:47 PM
Pretty cold and miserable down in Tassie, North have played down there quite a bit and are familiar with the ground & conditions. Hawks should just get over the line, hopefully North don't go on vacation late in the game as they have a few times, think they will rectify that.

Hawks 1-39 1u @ 2.20
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Django
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#172
Posted: 6/2/2012 12:19:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

GWS first trip to Geelong, North Melbourne and Brisbane had 7 goal first quarters against the Giants and Eagles kicked 11.
Geelong should definitely win the quarter by 3.2

Geelong 1Q Line -19.5 1u @ 1.90 (sportsbet)


GWS come out on fire, kick the first 3 and end up drawing the 1Q at 4.2 apiece

YTD
36-45-0 | Multi 0-5
-5.07


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Django
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#173
Posted: 6/2/2012 2:32:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Pretty cold and miserable down in Tassie, North have played down there quite a bit and are familiar with the ground & conditions. Hawks should just get over the line, hopefully North don't go on vacation late in the game as they have a few times, think they will rectify that.

Hawks 1-39 1u @ 2.20


North Melbourne getting absolutely killed. Buddy has 11... Hawks likely to win by 139

YTD
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-6.07

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Django
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#174
Posted: 6/2/2012 2:35:35 AM
Crows -9.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet)
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#175
Posted: 6/2/2012 5:30:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Crows -9.5 1u @ 1.92 (sportsbet)


YTD
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-5.15
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