The Arkansas Derby has emerged as the favorite prep among many followers of the Derby trail and why not? Since Smarty Jones won in 2004 using the race as his stepping stone to immortality and with a slot-fueled purse of one million bucks, there’s a lot for fans to notice at Hot Springs.
The winner in this 2011 Arkansas Derby field could emerge as a top contender, if not the winner of the big race on May 5. Even though talent, like Bodemeister, Secret Circle, Isn’t He Clever and Optimizer head the field, the second flight is pretty darned good too; Sabercat, Stat, Najjaar among them.
I see no clear cut winner. With the competition in this race, he who enters the winner’s circle should be given great consideration going forward.
NOTE this quote from Mike Watchmaker that appeared in an article in the Daily Racing Form this past week:
“There are only two truly major Kentucky Derby preps left, they being Saturday’s Blue Grass at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. And if one of these races is won by a horse who runs fast enough to earn a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, it would mark only the third time this year such a winning Beyer was assigned to a next-to-last round, or final round Derby prep.”
Those two prep race 100 Beyers’ include: Bodemeister at 101 in the San Felipe (Creative Cause ran a 102); Daddy Nose Best had a 100 in the Sunland Derby (Isn’t He Clever ran a 99 finishing second);
#11 Bodemeister…..Here I go touting the chalk again. Bodemeister is a very impressive animal and might be Baffert’s most versatile stakester. Mr. B has had great success in Arkansas the past few years and Saturday might be another huge day. Mike Smith rides and he recently won his 5000th career race! (PS: Bejarano moves to Secret Circle). The son of Empire Maker has raced just three times in his career (3/1-2-0 all of them at Santa Anita) and NEVER as a two-year old, which is a real red flag if he’s your early Derby pick. Not that I am still trying to figure out how he lost the San Felipe to Creative Cause, who got beat last weekend in the Santa Anita Derby to I’ll Have Another, I think Bodemeister just ran out of gas. He was run down by ¾ lengths by the horse that many will argue will be the winner of the Kentucky Derby, Creative Cause. Bode’s San Felipe performance made me question if he could get the distance. After viewing the race again, I think he can and will. Check the fractions of the San Felipe. It was a quickie. The post doesn’t scare me as my guess is that he’ll be out in short order. After watching Smith’s tactical efforts so many times, I think he can get this guy revved up after a tuck and stalk for the final surge. The 9-5 morning fave.
#6 Isn’t He Clever…..This is the guy who came up a point short of running a 100 Beyer in the Sunland Derby (G-III) when he finished second to Daddy Nose Best, who is one of my Derby Day dark horses at the moment. He’s done it all right so far for clever trainer Henry Dominguez with a record of 7/4-2-0 lifetime. The switch to Robbie Alvarado is a real plus. The Sunland is Clever’s only graded stakes and he lost by just ¾ to the charging Daddy Nose Best. This could be the horse on this track on this day. One more thing…..his daddy is Smarty Jones.