The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Phoenix Suns in NBA action on Friday night.
Despite heavy expectations, the Suns are currently sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference and could be headed to the play-in tournament. The Thunder have been everything that people expected from Phoenix and are just half a game away from first place, but will likely be missing superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight.
With that in mind, NBA odds have the Suns as 1.5-point favorites with the Over/Under listed at 227.5. Here are my best free NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Thunder on March 29.
Suns vs Thunder predictions
My best bet: Suns -1.5 (-110 at bet365)
At full strength, the Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly the better team, especially at home where they've gone 28-8 with an average scoring margin of +10.9 points per game. However, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is listed as doubtful with a quad injury and the All-NBA guard is a massive factor on both sides of the ball.
Not only does SGA average 30.4 ppg on 54% shooting, but he also adds 6.3 assists and a league-high 2.1 steals per game. Gilgeous-Alexander has missed just two games this season and the Thunder dropped both of them, falling to the Warriors back in November and losing to the Rockets 132-126 on Wednesday night.
Despite a disappointing record, the Phoenix Suns are catching fire at the right time The Suns have gone 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their last five games and are coming off a road victory against the defending champion Nuggets.
The Suns have ramped up the defensive intensity during that stretch, allowing just 104.8 ppg. That defensive improvement has also been evident over a larger sample size, with Phoenix ranking 13th in the league in defensive rating since the start of February. On the other side of the court, the Suns have been extremely efficient, entering tonight fifth in the league in effective field goal percentage (56.7%).
It's time for this Suns team to start playing with more fire, and since they're just half a game behind Dallas for sixth place in the West, winning this game is crucial to avoiding the play-in tourney. Look for them to take advantage of a Thunder team without SGA and back Phoenix on the spread.
Suns vs Thunder same-game parlay
Suns -1.5
Jalen Williams Over 29 points + assists
Bradley Beal Under 16.5 points
Jalen Williams dropped 23 points and added 10 assists without Gilgeous-Alexander in the lineup on Wednesday. He should continue to see his ball usage skyrocket in SGA's absence.
Bradley Beal isn't the No. 1 option that he was with the Wizards, and his role has really changed over the last few weeks. Beal hasn't scored more than 13 points in any of his last five games and he's averaging just 9.4 ppg during that span. Beal isn't taking many shots, which makes positive regression less likely. With the Suns playing well during this latest stretch, don't expect them to do anything different tonight.
Betting the Suns on the spread while backing Williams and fading Beal creates a nice multiplier for this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Suns vs Thunder odds and trends
Suns vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -1 | Oklahoma City +1
- Moneyline: Phoenix -120 | Oklahoma City +100
- Over/Under: Over 230 | Under 230
Suns vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns opened as 1-point favorites and this line moved as high as -2.5 before buyback on the home side brought it back to -2 at most books.
- The O/U opened at 230, but after the news came out the SGA would likely be out, it dropped as low as 225 before ticking back up to 227.5.
- The Suns were shaky at the start of the season, but since January, they've gone 26-15 while ranking seventh in the NBA in net rating (+4.7).
- The Thunder are 28-8 SU and 24-14 ATS at home, but they've had a tough covering spreads lately considering books aren't undervaluing them anymore.
Suns vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Thunder.
Suns vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Friday, March 29, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AZ Family Sports, KSBI |
Not intended for use in MA.
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