If I had told you in 2022 Yusei Kikuchi would be the Toronto Blue Jays best pitcher in 2024, you probably would have laughed me into oblivion.
Fast forward to May 21, and his play is one of the reasons I'm backing Toronto to win by two or more in my White Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction. Find out all you need to know in my MLB picks ahead.
White Sox vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays run line -1.5 (+110 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Last season left many wondering who the real Yusei Kikuchi was. His first four years in the big leagues resulted in a 5.02 ERA, and then last year, the hard-throwing southpaw pitched to a career-best 3.86 ERA.
Well, he’s basically spent the first two months of this season saying, “I’m here, and I’m for real!”
Kikuchi has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in seven of his nine starts, working out to a 2.74 expected ERA which ranks in the 88th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also ranks in the 79th percentile in strikeouts rate, punching out 26.3% of the batters he's faced.
Maybe most impressive of all is the dramatic turnaround in his control. Kikuchi has spent much of his MLB career battling his command, sporting a 12.8% walk rate in 2022 which was Bottom 3% of the league. This season it’s at 4.8% and in the 86th percentile.
All this to say, Kikuchi is going to be a problem for a Chicago White Sox lineup that really struggles vs. left-handed pitchers. The Pale Hose rank dead last in both OPS and wRC+ when facing lefties this season while also having the seventh-highest K-rate.
The White Sox counter Kikuchi with a southpaw of their own in Garrett Crochet. The 24-year-old has been nothing short of outstanding this season, pitching to a 2.20 xERA while limiting opponents to a .181 xBA with a big 33.7 K-rate.
Despite this, the White Sox have won just four of Crochet’s nine starts, partly thanks to a bullpen that ranks dead last in xFIP.
The starters should keep this one close for a while, but the Toronto Blue Jays handle lefties better than the White Sox and should take advantage of a poor Chicago pen to pull away late.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+150 at PROLINE+)
I wanted to take Kikuchi Over 5.5 strikeouts here, but it is heavily juiced. If you can find Over 6.5 at plus money I think there is some value there. Instead, I'm going back to the well with a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI.
The Blue Jays star first baseman came through for us yesterday, driving in a run in the third inning. Vladdy now has hits in 17 of his last 19 games, good for a .397 average and a .963 OPS while collecting 11 RBI.
Guerrero has been solid against lefties for most of the season, hitting .303 with a .863 OPS against them. That includes 10 of his 21 RBI this season in about a quarter of at-bats.
Our Covers prop projections have Vladdy sitting at 0.7 RBI for tonight’s matchup against the White Sox, so there is some value on the Over at this price.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
White Sox vs Blue Jays odds
White Sox vs Blue Jays live odds
White Sox vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-150) | Toronto -1.5 (+125)
- Moneyline: Chicago +145 | Toronto -170
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
White Sox vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as -170 home favorites, but that high price hasn't scared away early bettors, with the line now sitting in the -190 range.
- The White Sox have arguably been the worst team in baseball this season. Their 13 wins and -105 run differential are both the worst in MLB.
- The total hit the board at 7.5 and has been bet down to 7.0, but there are even some 6.5s out there now.
- The Blue Jays (19-27 O/U) and White Sox (21-26 O/U) have both been solid Under bets this season, but I am staying away from the low number considering this game features a pair of suspect bullpens.
White Sox vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the game total Under in 23 of their last 36 games for +8.50 Units and a 21% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs Blue Jays.
White Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCH, Sportsnet |
| White Sox starting pitcher: | Garrett Crochet (4-4, 4.18 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (2-3, 2.60 ERA) |
White Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
White Sox vs Blue Jays weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
