https://nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_halft ime
(Read the brief instructions)
Here's a sample college game from last night
https://nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_halft ime&task=load_magic&magic=1001
(Kentucky vs. Samford)
You’ll see that it lists the actual stats from the first half already filled in with the closing game line and 2h total. If you hit “Play” you'll see the display screen.
Take a look at it and let me know what you think. It takes the season averages of the teams playing and compares them to the actual 1st half results. It may suggest a play if all the game variables meet a criteria I set up (This particular game doesn't). Plus you'll be able to make your own plays using the actual number of possessions vs. projected, the line value, and if they shot better or worse in the 1h.
You'll see with the sample game above from last night (Samford vs. Kentucky). The pace of the 1H was statistically slower and both teams combined to shoot better than their overall season average. Two things I’ll look to have in my favor when looking to play a 2h under.
When looking at a potential 2nd half total play you'd have these three things in the predictor display to help make a decision.
1. Pace was slower than projected by some margin.
2. Line Value was pointing towards a possible over as the projection was 72.1 and the actual 2h line was 70.5
3. The combined shooting pct for the 1h was higher than projected. Meaning a regression towards the mean may lead to a lower scoring 2H.
There are other variables that may show up in the display, but this will give you an idea of what you'll see by inputting actual 1h stats into the blank text boxes.
Other items that may appear under other notes are:
1. If one team is way ahead or behind of another team and exceeding a pre-determined threshold, I’ve set up, based on the original line.
2. Another thing you may see if the two teams shot well below/above average in the 1h. You may need to look at the before deciding on a 2h half play.
3. You may see “slim line value in 2h”. That means the 2h total is within .5 points of the projected 2h total.
You’ll also see that if you change a number or numbers (for example if the 2h line moves) and hit PLAY you'll see the result will change. This feature was added just in case you’ve noticed an error on your original addition of the 1h stats or if the line moves, as it often does.
Try this: Change the 2h total to 73 from 70.5 and hit play on the sample Kentucky/Samford game. By doing that you'll meet all the criteria I’ve set for a suggested play of an UNDER.
I’m adding this to a “predictor” site membership, but wanted to share and have people try it. I hoped to have it done a week ago, but it just didn’t work out. I really think this is something that will help beat 2nd half totals. I’ve back tested almost 2 full nba seasons and a bunch of college basketball games and there is significant opportunities to make money using pace, line value and 1h shooting percentages to your advantage.
Most games you can get the halftime stats you’ll need to input in the empty cells once you select your teams and it should take less than a minute to get an idea of how the game may play out in the 2nd half. ESPN.com usually has the box scores and the 6 different stats for each team.
If you want to back test a game. Pick the two teams, find the 1h stats needed, closing lines and 2h totals and hit play. If you have any questions, comments or ideas let me know.