8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls Under 176 (-110)
The first game offered a total of 175 and rightfully so. I wrote in my playoff series breakdowns that the betting public is well aware that these two teams are defensive power houses and Vegas wouldn't make it easy for under backers to cash those obvious tickets. Now of course things didn't really go according to plan. Part of the reason for the relatively high scoring first game was above average pace for both teams. Another reason was an excessive amount of free throw attempts (55 in total). Even if Rose was still in the line-up I would expect the second game to be much lower scoring than the first. Now that Rose is out, it almost certainly will be. Vegas is giving us a gift by raising the total a point higher than where they set it for the first game and I'm absolutely going to take advantage of their generosity. When Rose is off the floor, the Bulls offense is significantly worse (by about 5 points per 48 minutes). However, they were able to maintain such a good winning percentage in the games he missed because their defense actually performs better without him (allowing about 3.5 points fewer per 48 minutes). All in all, without Rose in the line-up the total should drop 8.44 points. Again, thanks to the high scoring first game, Vegas foolishly raised the total. Factoring in the 8.44 point decline in scoring for both teams and my model now predicts an average score of 169.52 for the series. With the current total of 176 we're getting 6.5 points of value. All else remains the same for how these teams match-up defensively and you can read my write-up on the breakdown sheet for those key defensive metrics. I expect the second game to have a slower pace with elevated defensive effort, more possessions ending in jump shots and ultimately fewer trips to the line. Look for the final score to end up in the mid 160's. By the way, Bulls will still win this game and the series, but it looks like Vegas is right on with the new line - I don't see value on either side.
8:05 EST - Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls Under 176 (-110)
The first game offered a total of 175 and rightfully so. I wrote in my playoff series breakdowns that the betting public is well aware that these two teams are defensive power houses and Vegas wouldn't make it easy for under backers to cash those obvious tickets. Now of course things didn't really go according to plan. Part of the reason for the relatively high scoring first game was above average pace for both teams. Another reason was an excessive amount of free throw attempts (55 in total). Even if Rose was still in the line-up I would expect the second game to be much lower scoring than the first. Now that Rose is out, it almost certainly will be. Vegas is giving us a gift by raising the total a point higher than where they set it for the first game and I'm absolutely going to take advantage of their generosity. When Rose is off the floor, the Bulls offense is significantly worse (by about 5 points per 48 minutes). However, they were able to maintain such a good winning percentage in the games he missed because their defense actually performs better without him (allowing about 3.5 points fewer per 48 minutes). All in all, without Rose in the line-up the total should drop 8.44 points. Again, thanks to the high scoring first game, Vegas foolishly raised the total. Factoring in the 8.44 point decline in scoring for both teams and my model now predicts an average score of 169.52 for the series. With the current total of 176 we're getting 6.5 points of value. All else remains the same for how these teams match-up defensively and you can read my write-up on the breakdown sheet for those key defensive metrics. I expect the second game to have a slower pace with elevated defensive effort, more possessions ending in jump shots and ultimately fewer trips to the line. Look for the final score to end up in the mid 160's. By the way, Bulls will still win this game and the series, but it looks like Vegas is right on with the new line - I don't see value on either side.
I see it going over as well, Without Rose the last meeting the total was 169 so you are right there. But i dont see the bulls having another 11pt 1st qrt tonight. I also see alot of players stepping up tonight for the bulls, wanting to show they aren't nothing without Rose. BOL
I see it going over as well, Without Rose the last meeting the total was 169 so you are right there. But i dont see the bulls having another 11pt 1st qrt tonight. I also see alot of players stepping up tonight for the bulls, wanting to show they aren't nothing without Rose. BOL
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