Mike Watchmakers Analysis Notes: Derby Preps Monday Thread
Thoughts on Saturday’s three big Kentucky Derby preps:
I agree that if you were inclined to try Creative Cause without blinkers, the time to do it was Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby and not in the Kentucky Derby. But I must admit I still don’t at all understand the urge to try this colt without them. Creative Cause lacks focus. It’s obvious the way he has run in the past. Traditionally, blinkers help address that issue, and blinkers off does the opposite. So I wasn’t surprised to see Creative Cause hang late Saturday, and narrowly miss in a race in which he was likely the most talented horse by a clear margin. Anyway, I lost no respect for Creative Cause, and still regard him as a top threat to win the Kentucky Derby, just as long as he gets his blinkers back in Louisville.
And props go to I’ll Have Another, who was sharp winning the Santa Anita Derby off a two month layoff. At the same time, this was a hard effort for I’ll Have Another, off a two month layoff, and in only his second start in seven months. He seems very susceptible to a bounce in the Derby.
The Wood Memorial was oddly run in the sense that My Adonis was, for whatever reason, in a huge hurry to go after The Lumber Guy early. The impact of this was a quick early pace, Gemologist getting pushed four-to-three wide on the first turn, and Alpha getting knocked back on the rail into the first turn.
Credit goes to the first two Wood finishers. Gemologist was also caught three wide on the far turn, and yet he almost handily resisted when Alpha made a late run at him. Alpha, in addition to his early trouble, was coming off a two month layoff, and yet turned in a far more impressive performance than his two Aqueduct inner track stakes wins earlier this year. I don’t know why, but this Wood made me think of the 2003 Wood, in which Empire Maker handily turned back Funny Cide. But in Kentucky, Funny Cide turned the tables on Empire Maker in the Derby.
Done Talking, whose prior two stakes starts resulted in a fourth in the Remsen last fall and a distant 10th in last month’s Gotham, got himself a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby if he wants it with his off-the-pace victory in the Illinois Derby. I know Mine That Bird only happened a couple of years ago, but does Done Talking really have any shot at Churchill? How good a race could this Illinois Derby have been when Morgan’s Guerilla, coming off an Aqueduct inner track maiden win, has command in deep stretch and only succumbs late? And yes, I liked Morgan’s Guerilla Saturday, but as a bet, not as a Kentucky Derby candidate.