1/23 Results: Butler falls, Iona falls, Valpo falls. Horizon is shaking up to be a mess outside of Cleveland State. Went 2-1, juiced.
Sides: 51-42, +0.80
Totals: 48-26, +24.00
DNP: 71-59
1/24 Notes: Georgia State had won all of their home conference games (including JMU and VCU) up until Saturday when they laid an egg against Delaware. Their lone road win came at Chattanooga who is an exact mirror image of Georgia State in terms of makeup, style, and juco talent. Other than that, they have been awful on the road including losses to McNeese State, Hampton, Georgia Southern, and UNC Wilmington. Their most recent three game road trip was a tough one with JMU, GM, and VCU back-to-back in a six day stretch. I’m not sure how it gets any easier as this will be their fifth game in 11 days, and only one day of prep with travel to Drexel. Then they have one day of prep and are back at it on Wednesday which is a lookahead to ODU. Drexel on the other hand, has taken care of business at home primarily b/c of their defense and that should help them tonight against a “juco-style” program. They don’t take chances, they stay in position and make you score out of your offense with very few transition opportunities. And it’s pretty much the same replica of defense they went against in Delaware last time out, which resulted in a home loss. In that game, they had 25 1H points, and had a late surge to end up with 62. In that game, they led with a few seconds remaining and fell at the buzzer to a three-pointer. Drexel’s defense is much better, and they bring in more length, and it’s hard to see Georgia State putting up anywhere close to that # tonight given the situational scheduling spots (too many game, too little prep time, road history, tough emotional loss) as well. They have yet to score 60+ on the road against a slow style all year in regulation. All in all, the two teams have different approaches. Georgia State plays ten players are aren’t afraid to sub and get them in. Drexel goes seven deep (no clue how CAA freshman of the year last year Fouch does not start). I would point under, Drexel’s offense doesn’t really scare me and their main focus will be defending. I’m eager to see the Pitt/ND game and see what each coach will do. Last year’s meetings were extremely slow paced, and Pitt has double revenge. In both wins last year, Notre Dame only made 18 and 22 shots. I think the verdicts still out on Notre Dame, they haven’t looked good on the road, and I’m not sure they’ve looked all that great at home, but they’re getting it done. They get a nice break here before going to Depaul which falls under Brey having more than a week to prep as I’ve mentioned before. Sandwich game for VCU on the second of a two-game roady as they just knocked off Old Dominion and Hofstra on deck. With that said, Towson is on its way to not winning a game in the conference all year. Their defense is flat out awful. B/c of that, I’d point over, but it’s risky with this VCU defense. James Madison and Hofstra should be a pretty good game between two of my projected uppers in the CAA. Situationally, it’s not a good spot for James Madison. They’re coming off consecutive losses to ODU and George Mason, and go back on the road against a Hofstra team that only has one conference loss. There are two keys here that point to the over. One, neither team’s defensive style is built to stop the opposing offenses. Traditionally, when I look at Hofstra, the first thought that comes to mind is their defense. It’s been awesome the past few years and that’s what has kept them competitive. However, they’ve taken more of an offensive approach this year. They’ve brought in some talent to surround Jenkins and it’s helped a large amount. At the same time, it’s hurt their defense. The defense is designed and has been designed to basically wreak havoc, produce steals, and get out in transition for some easy buckets. They’re still playing the same way, but outside of Jenkins, the experience factor is proving to be a bit too much. Their 7-1 conference mark is impressive, but they have played a majority of some of the worst teams in the conference to achieve that feat. Teams like James Madison will take advantage of this defense, whereas with some of the lesser, the weakness doesn’t really show up. Second thing pointing to the over is that both teams are coming off snail pace teams. Hofstra is coming off three of the slowest teams in the country, and James Madison has been playing snails all of January. Situationally, not a good spot for James Madison. But in terms of what they want to do, this is about as good of a spot as any to get out and go. Hofstra won’t shy away, they’ve shown no ounce of it yet this year against teams who like to get up and down. Coming off George Mason and Old Dominion is a tough thing for James Madison to bounce back from, but this will be one of the easiest defensive styles to do it against. There should be a bit of motivation here too, JMU hasn’t beaten Hofstra in years and they were blown out in a home game last year. No thoughts on ODU/UNCW. Tough spot for ODU to rebound from just two days after a tough loss, but I guess the little time might help. Northeastern and William & Mary are two of the under achievers thus far this year in the CAA. Both teams defenses are the culprit, especially playing as slow as they do game in and game out. If Bill & Mary hit their three-pointers, this game goes over. If they don’t, it stays under. It’s really the only option when looking at the total. With that said, Northeastern is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the three-ball. George Mason & Delaware get my vote for snooze-fest of the night. I can actually see GM struggling with Delaware’s defense which forces you to slow your offense down and work the ball around before attempting a shot. Two more underachievers in their conference, Kansas State and Baylor. I’ll sit on the sidelines for this one. Furman and Wofford could have potential to be a really good game. Both teams matchup exceptionally well, and both teams are similar in makeup. It’s probably a good thing for Morehead to get outside the OVC at this point in the season coming off of two straight losses. Now, they play someone they have never played before in Ball State, and the big problem will be familiarity...