Covers Posted YTD Soccer Plays: 29-20 +24.28 units
Finished the day at 2-2 yesterday losing 0.72 units but could have easily gone 3-1 if Juventus had capitalized on just one more of their staggering 30 attempts at goal (15 on target). Oh well .. sometimes you can handicap the game correctly but the players just don’t execute.
Time to move on to Wednesday’s action and my favorite group, and it’s not the group that boasts my favorite club, AC Milan. Nope, it’s group D! The so-called “group of death” at the start of the tournament.
My strongest play of the day comes from Group D.
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Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund over 3 +100 for 2.5 units
Real Madrid comes in to this one in first place in Group B with the full 6 points after two matches that included a 3-2 win over Manchester City at home and a 4-1 road beating of Ajax. Borussia Dortmund is 2nd in the group with a draw and victory with a 1-0 win over Ajax and a surprise 1-1 draw at Manchester City.
Madrid is without Marcelo, Alvaro Arbeloa and Fabio Coentrao at the back and as a result, is susceptible to allowing a goal this evening. In fact, my handicap has Borussia Dortmund scoring at least once. As such, for Real Madrid to win they will need to score at least 2 because I don’t see them keeping a clean sheet against Borussia Dortmund in this game. I also don't project RM to lose this one considering that Dortumnd have won only 1 of their last 6 matches in all competitions and is 0-5 in their last 5 at home vs. Spanish competition.
I’ve said this since the first game of the group stages; If you go all the way into the archives I said when I picked the over in Man City v Real Madrid that this group may very well come down to goal differential so I don’t see any side letting up if they get the lead and I don’t think that anyone will be playing for “draws” quite yet. So far, it has been a fairly entertaining and high scoring group.
Borussia Dortmund play a very disciplined “German” style game. Compact and organized but with a lot of pace up front in their attack. They possess a very fast counter. They have struggled domestically this season and like Real Madrid, will look to this Tournament to salvage some hardware, although highly unlikely.
A win for Real Madrid and they can significantly widen their gap at the top of this group. The greater the gap they build the quicker they can get down to business domestically and try to climb their way back to the top. Borussia Dortmund can take top spot in the table with a win here so they too are plenty motivated.
Borussia Dortmund have 11 goals in their 3 home games vs. 3 surrendered. Real Madrid also sits in 4th in La Liga after 8 games as well having scored 2 goals per game on average. Where they have struggled is on the road, going 1-2-1. Of note is that Real Madrid has conceded an average of a goal a game in all games this season.
Against Man City, Real Madrid took 35 attempts at goal with 12 hitting the target. Against Ajax, they also had 12 shots on goal on 21 attempts.
Borussia Dortmund had 23 attempts and 7 on target vs. Ajax and conceded 9 attempts and 3 on target. Against Man City they had 22 attempts and 10 on goal and they allowed 7 shots on goal on 12 attempts.
So, as you can see, both sides take a lot of shots, both sides love to attack and with Madrid suffering some health problems at the back and knowing they must net a couple to get the W, look for many chances in what could be a very open game.
My projections make this game 3-1 Real Madrid. I also had one of my projection models give me 2-2. I just don’t see these teams letting up and I see many shots on goal for both sides. It's OVER or nothing for me in this one.