Covers Soccer Posted Record: 114-83 +63.19 units
Newscastle Uinited v Anzhi Makhachkala over 2/2.5 +105 2 units
I locked this play in last night AND TWITTR before I went to bed at +105. Had I waited I would have been able to get it at 4 cents better (+109) this morning. Oh well... them the breaks. For all I know it could have been at +100. Regardless... IF you want to tail this play you should get a better price but I still think the price moves higher as we approach game time.
Here’s what the public is focussing on in my opinion. 39! What the heck does 39 mean? It has to do with the fact that it took 39 minutes of play in the first leg between these two teams before the first shot on goal was registered! It’s no wonder the game ended 0-0 but if you saw what I saw, Newcastle started to find their openings and started to exploit them very late in the game. Add another 10 minutes to the match and we would have seen a goal in my opinion.
Expect the mood today at St. James Park t be electric as Newcastle got the result they wanted coming home. Newcastle and their fans also come in off a high after a dramatic late victory over Stoke on the weekend and with 6 straight EPL Wins under their belt and relegation drawing further away, Expect them to field a respectable lineup for this one with only tired players being subbed out. Cisse is expected to start up front which helps our cause. Newcastle came home with an acceptable 0-0 draw after the first leg they know full well goals are needed to progress. Being pretty much safe in the EPL should help get the players’ minds on today’s game for Newcastle. Look for a different mood today compared to game one.
ONE GOAL changes the entire complexion of this game. Any scoring draw an Newcastle is out. Anzhi knows this and will press for that opener.
I fully expect both teams to come out of their defensive mindsets in search of a goal. This will leave gaps at the back and gaps that can be exposed. This isn’t going to be Barcelona v Milan and I think you are going to have to wait until deep into the second half to cash this ticket but I am betting my numbers that have gotten me this far and going with this game to see 3 or more goals. For the record, my projections give me 2-1 Newcastle in 2 scenarios, 2-2 draw in the third and 2-1 Anzhi in the 4th so because I don’t have a unanimous on the side I will skip it to stick to the total instead. Gun to the head? I would bet Newcastle.
I project both teams to score. This is vital to the over because as I said, a scoring draw puts Anzhi through. Look for them to push high up the park in search of anything that would keep them in this competition next year because in order for them to remain in Europe next year, they have to win Europa (doubtful) but I’ve seen worse things happen.
Last 5 games (all competitions) Newcastle has scored 10 and conceded 7 for an average of 3.4. As for Anzhi, last 5 away games (all competitions) they have scored 5 and conceded 8 for a 2.6 average. Very simple averages math would therefore make this game 3. Of course I use many different parameters but you can see the point I’m making. Anzhi hasn’t scored in 2 games since their winter break. It’s not like they don’t have the firepower to do so. Coming to a warmer England with players hungry for goals, my friends, despite the first leg result, I expect something completely different today.
More to come ... really leaning on Inter but I have to complete my handicapping for validation.