Dortmund to win by 2+ goals ? At this time ? I might be very stupid. But I have some good reasoning. Everyone knows that Dortmund has a team that is a few levels above Mainz, but it didn't mean anything in so many games this season for Dortmund - because of the situation, because of psychology. The biggest reason for me to take Dortmund is the day - Friday. I wouldn't touch this game if it's on a Saturday afternoon or Sunday afternoon. Why ?
I live exactly 16.5 miles away from the Dortmund stadium. In our area, Friday night Soccer home games mean very much to the people. The working week is finished, people can open the first beer and switch into Soccer mode, knowing they have the weekend ahead. The atmosphere is - usually - better than on Saturdays. And with the signing of Marco Reus until 2019, the atmosphere will be even better tonight. Dortmund are a special Friday night team. Take a look at their Friday night record since the 2010-2011 season:
8-2-0 at home, 23-7 goal ratio 6-0 on the road, 14-5 goal ratio
Of the two draws at home, one was a 4-4 shootout against Stuttgart in which Dortmund conceded a last-minute goal. The other one was a 0-0 against Schalke in a game Manuel Neuer had a one man show (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZIAPjJQwGc) - Dortmund SHOULD have won that game. So their home record could be 10-0.
Mainz are not a good team this season. All started when they lost in the first round of the DFB Pokal and didn't qualify for the UEL group stage against Asteras Tripolis. They have won just four Bundesliga games this season and just one on the road. Their road record is 1-6-3 with a goal ratio of 11 to 16. They can't execute on the road and when they played against teams who are able to execute at home, they lost 0-3 (Wolfsburg) and 1-4 (Schalke). Since mid October they have won just one single game, at home against Paderborn. Loris Karius is not allowed to play so they will send a 20-year-old goalkeeper into the game who has to keep the vision in frantic situations when Dortmund is in a classic home storm mode.
All in all, I can see Dortmund having no troubles beating Mainz at least 2-0. Good spot, good time. IF Dortmund changes the lineup dramatically and let Immobile and Mkhitaryan start, I will probably buy out. But I like the bet very much at this point.
Dortmund to win by 2+ goals ? At this time ? I might be very stupid. But I have some good reasoning. Everyone knows that Dortmund has a team that is a few levels above Mainz, but it didn't mean anything in so many games this season for Dortmund - because of the situation, because of psychology. The biggest reason for me to take Dortmund is the day - Friday. I wouldn't touch this game if it's on a Saturday afternoon or Sunday afternoon. Why ?
I live exactly 16.5 miles away from the Dortmund stadium. In our area, Friday night Soccer home games mean very much to the people. The working week is finished, people can open the first beer and switch into Soccer mode, knowing they have the weekend ahead. The atmosphere is - usually - better than on Saturdays. And with the signing of Marco Reus until 2019, the atmosphere will be even better tonight. Dortmund are a special Friday night team. Take a look at their Friday night record since the 2010-2011 season:
8-2-0 at home, 23-7 goal ratio 6-0 on the road, 14-5 goal ratio
Of the two draws at home, one was a 4-4 shootout against Stuttgart in which Dortmund conceded a last-minute goal. The other one was a 0-0 against Schalke in a game Manuel Neuer had a one man show (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZIAPjJQwGc) - Dortmund SHOULD have won that game. So their home record could be 10-0.
Mainz are not a good team this season. All started when they lost in the first round of the DFB Pokal and didn't qualify for the UEL group stage against Asteras Tripolis. They have won just four Bundesliga games this season and just one on the road. Their road record is 1-6-3 with a goal ratio of 11 to 16. They can't execute on the road and when they played against teams who are able to execute at home, they lost 0-3 (Wolfsburg) and 1-4 (Schalke). Since mid October they have won just one single game, at home against Paderborn. Loris Karius is not allowed to play so they will send a 20-year-old goalkeeper into the game who has to keep the vision in frantic situations when Dortmund is in a classic home storm mode.
All in all, I can see Dortmund having no troubles beating Mainz at least 2-0. Good spot, good time. IF Dortmund changes the lineup dramatically and let Immobile and Mkhitaryan start, I will probably buy out. But I like the bet very much at this point.
I guess alot of people like them as well. -1.5 is up to -113 on 5Dimes.
And Mainz ML moved up while Dortmund ML stayed the same or moved just slightly. I never try to read into line moves but for believer it seems like bookies try to get some Mainz money.
I guess alot of people like them as well. -1.5 is up to -113 on 5Dimes.
And Mainz ML moved up while Dortmund ML stayed the same or moved just slightly. I never try to read into line moves but for believer it seems like bookies try to get some Mainz money.
Thanks for the good write up....Dortmund seems like they've turned a new corner and should be fired up to play at home. I didn't know their play was that much better on Fridays.
Thanks for the good write up....Dortmund seems like they've turned a new corner and should be fired up to play at home. I didn't know their play was that much better on Fridays.
Thank you for this great writeup suuma I always like watching Dortmund matches but I am very sad with Immobile's use since he join your team. Do you think he was given the proper support to perform in a foreigh country?
Thank you for this great writeup suuma I always like watching Dortmund matches but I am very sad with Immobile's use since he join your team. Do you think he was given the proper support to perform in a foreigh country?
Thanks for the good write up....Dortmund seems like they've turned a new corner and should be fired up to play at home. I didn't know their play was that much better on Fridays.
They should be VERY fired up. An early goal is the best thing tonight to gain some confidence.
Thanks for the good write up....Dortmund seems like they've turned a new corner and should be fired up to play at home. I didn't know their play was that much better on Fridays.
They should be VERY fired up. An early goal is the best thing tonight to gain some confidence.
Nice to see you on the same pick, pretty sure we will cash this one tonight. Considered even higher spreads but why get greedy.
I've got the correct score at 3-0. If they score early, there is a good chance for higher spreads IMO. No Champions League game next week, they can go all in tonight.
Nice to see you on the same pick, pretty sure we will cash this one tonight. Considered even higher spreads but why get greedy.
I've got the correct score at 3-0. If they score early, there is a good chance for higher spreads IMO. No Champions League game next week, they can go all in tonight.
Thank you for this great writeup suuma I always like watching Dortmund matches but I am very sad with Immobile's use since he join your team. Do you think he was given the proper support to perform in a foreigh country?
I think the wrong thing was even getting him to Dortmund. Before the deal was finished, I screamed: "WRONG MOVE!". They bought him for 20M EUR, but why ? He had one good season in the Serie A in a team that adjusted their play style on him. With all respect for the Soccer-history of your country, the Italian league isn't any good at the moment. The Bundesliga provides way more individual quality on defense and Immobiel can't come up with that. He doesn't fit in the Dortmund system and from what I saw for now, he is not that good of a striker.
He had all the proper support. He got many chances in different systems (4-3-2-1 / 4-4-2) but just couldn't show up as the type of player Dortmund desperately needs. They are missing Lewandowski. Mandzukic would have been a much better fit than Immobile.
Thank you for this great writeup suuma I always like watching Dortmund matches but I am very sad with Immobile's use since he join your team. Do you think he was given the proper support to perform in a foreigh country?
I think the wrong thing was even getting him to Dortmund. Before the deal was finished, I screamed: "WRONG MOVE!". They bought him for 20M EUR, but why ? He had one good season in the Serie A in a team that adjusted their play style on him. With all respect for the Soccer-history of your country, the Italian league isn't any good at the moment. The Bundesliga provides way more individual quality on defense and Immobiel can't come up with that. He doesn't fit in the Dortmund system and from what I saw for now, he is not that good of a striker.
He had all the proper support. He got many chances in different systems (4-3-2-1 / 4-4-2) but just couldn't show up as the type of player Dortmund desperately needs. They are missing Lewandowski. Mandzukic would have been a much better fit than Immobile.
I agree with you that the Bundesliga is a stronger league than Serie A at the moment and Ciro only had one good Serie A season but at 24 years old it is not too bad especially that Torino was the first Serie A team to give him a chance to be a starter. I also have to disagree with you when it comes to the quality of defense in Germany vs Italy. Serie A is one of the strongest leagues in the world when it comes to defense. I think that your assessment of Immobile is quite wrong. He has maybe only scored 3 goals in 15 Bundesliga matches (of which he only started 9), but he did score 4 goals in 4 champions league matches and 1 goal in 1 cup game. 8 goals overall in 20 games including the super cup seems decent for a youngster who is playing for the first time for what we call in Italy a Big and in a foreign country
I agree with you that the Bundesliga is a stronger league than Serie A at the moment and Ciro only had one good Serie A season but at 24 years old it is not too bad especially that Torino was the first Serie A team to give him a chance to be a starter. I also have to disagree with you when it comes to the quality of defense in Germany vs Italy. Serie A is one of the strongest leagues in the world when it comes to defense. I think that your assessment of Immobile is quite wrong. He has maybe only scored 3 goals in 15 Bundesliga matches (of which he only started 9), but he did score 4 goals in 4 champions league matches and 1 goal in 1 cup game. 8 goals overall in 20 games including the super cup seems decent for a youngster who is playing for the first time for what we call in Italy a Big and in a foreign country
I agree with you that the Bundesliga is a stronger league than Serie A at the moment and Ciro only had one good Serie A season but at 24 years old it is not too bad especially that Torino was the first Serie A team to give him a chance to be a starter. I also have to disagree with you when it comes to the quality of defense in Germany vs Italy. Serie A is one of the strongest leagues in the world when it comes to defense. I think that your assessment of Immobile is quite wrong. He has maybe only scored 3 goals in 15 Bundesliga matches (of which he only started 9), but he did score 4 goals in 4 champions league matches and 1 goal in 1 cup game. 8 goals overall in 20 games including the super cup seems decent for a youngster who is playing for the first time for what we call in Italy a Big and in a foreign country
System-wise you may be right, but I said in terms of individual quality. There is no way the Serie A has better individual players overall on defense than the Bundesliga.
I don't only look at goals when analysing strikers. I have watched many Dortmund games this season and Immobile hasn't impressed in any way. He doesn't fit the system, misses big chances, runs the wrong paths and can't create some space in counter situations. All Dortmund fans I talk to tell me the same about him - he was a mispurchase.
I agree with you that the Bundesliga is a stronger league than Serie A at the moment and Ciro only had one good Serie A season but at 24 years old it is not too bad especially that Torino was the first Serie A team to give him a chance to be a starter. I also have to disagree with you when it comes to the quality of defense in Germany vs Italy. Serie A is one of the strongest leagues in the world when it comes to defense. I think that your assessment of Immobile is quite wrong. He has maybe only scored 3 goals in 15 Bundesliga matches (of which he only started 9), but he did score 4 goals in 4 champions league matches and 1 goal in 1 cup game. 8 goals overall in 20 games including the super cup seems decent for a youngster who is playing for the first time for what we call in Italy a Big and in a foreign country
System-wise you may be right, but I said in terms of individual quality. There is no way the Serie A has better individual players overall on defense than the Bundesliga.
I don't only look at goals when analysing strikers. I have watched many Dortmund games this season and Immobile hasn't impressed in any way. He doesn't fit the system, misses big chances, runs the wrong paths and can't create some space in counter situations. All Dortmund fans I talk to tell me the same about him - he was a mispurchase.
I understand your point about Immobile I only saw a few Dortmund matches this season so it is hard for me to fully analyze his play But nonetheless, the champions league numbers are quite impressive for such a young player who had never played a champions league match before this season. Also, I think that at least 2 (if not 3) of his 4 goals were the first goal of the match and therefore broke the ice for your team in such an important competition. I could be wrong but maybe if given more time to better understand the system he could become an important player for Dortmund.
I understand your point about Immobile I only saw a few Dortmund matches this season so it is hard for me to fully analyze his play But nonetheless, the champions league numbers are quite impressive for such a young player who had never played a champions league match before this season. Also, I think that at least 2 (if not 3) of his 4 goals were the first goal of the match and therefore broke the ice for your team in such an important competition. I could be wrong but maybe if given more time to better understand the system he could become an important player for Dortmund.
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