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Internacional v Atletico Paranaense over 2.5 -114 2 units
Inter has scored 9 and conceded 5 in their 4 home games for a 2.8 average. However, what caught my eye is that they are playing a team that has scored 12 and conceded 12 in 6 road games for an average of 4 goals per game on the road (Atletico Paranaense).
This can be deadly considering Inter has conceded 2 or more goals in 6 of their 11 games this season while at the same time managing only 3 clean sheets on the year.
As for Atletico PR, don’t bet the house on them keeping their opponent at bay in this one either given that they have only kept 1 clean sheet on the year and love to play a wide open style of football that creates many chances but at the same time, leaves a lot of opportunity for counters for opponents to exploit.
The over is (no surprise here) 5-1 in Atletico Paraense’s road games. This is in stark contrast to the lower scoring affairs they have at home. If you want to bet AP to go over, look for opportunities on the road. Under 2.5 is 4-2 in their home games. Quite a contrast of play considering most teams tend to open up at home and try to bar the door on the road. As for Inter, they are 2-2 on the o/u at home so nothing meaningful to take from that.
These two teams are 5th and 6th in the league table (tied with 19 points) AP is tied for 2nd in the Brazil Serie A for most goals scored so far this season while Inter is right behind them in 3rd. So we have two potent offenses going against each other in this one. AP has the 4th worst defensive record in Serie A and while Inter sits in the middle of the league pack in goals against, they must be mindful of a very dangerous Atletico PR attack.
Noteworthy for Atletico PR is that defensive midfielder Bruno Silva is suspended today and right back Léo is doubtful. As for Inter, Diego Forlan is not in the line-up (international duty) but new Argentine striker Ignacio Scocco is eager to impress in his first appearance and exciting attacking midfielder Alex looks to get the start (from everything I’ve read) so we should have an exciting game tonight in this fixture.
My 4 spreadsheets give me a cumulative total of 3.43 in this match with the most probable outcome 2-1 for Inter (one spreadsheet gave me 2-2) so I will not touch the side but instead go for goals.
Inter is not afraid to fire away. They have averaged 20 attempts at goal per game in their 4 home games and we know that Atletico PR’s isn't afraid to fire away either, averaging 17 shots per game on the road. If both teams play to their averages, we should see many attempts at goal tonight.
With both teams at conversion rates of slightly higher than 10% it means that if Inter can get to their average attempts, they should net 2. Statistical probabilities indicate if Atletico PR can reach their average they are good for 1. Inter allows 12 attempts at goal per game so like I said, if Atletico can reach that, (and I so no reason why they can’t, they should be able to convert on at least one)