Covers Posted Soccer: 155-131 +44.35 units
USA v Germany over 2.5/3 -116 to win 2 units
Expect this game to see little tackling and a lot of open play as the United States continues to try and improve and use this game as preparation for the resumption of their World Cup qualifying campaign.
I would play this game at 3 as well but Pinnacle offered up a decent line on the 2.75 so I went with that instead of the 3 +108.
The United States lost 4-2 to Belgium in mid week play. Despite the fact that Germany is absent a lot of their first string players, they still represent a significant step up in class over the United States. Germany stormed out to a quick 4-0 lead over Equador mid week as well (by the 24th minute) and then took their foot off the pedal, coasting the rest of the way to a 4-2 win. Something people need to keep in mind is that despite many of the players on this German squad not being first team players, they are still playing to make an impression and as such, want to earn their spots for consideration on the A team or as substitutes. One star, Lucas Podolski, always a goal threat, will be on the side and should be looking to impress once again.
The United States looked horribly outclassed against Belgium and they won't get their ship corrected by today. Perhaps against CONCACAF teams they compete, but this group, aside from 2 or 3 players, doesn't stack up against the world's best.
Yes, it's a friendly match, but both teams are desperate to get the win for their own reasons. The USA to get back on track and Germany who has players looking to make the squad.
My power ratings make this game 4.12 with the most likely outcome 3-1 Germany according to my spreadsheet runs. (3-1 in 3 of my models, 4-0 in the other)
Germany is tactful and despite their FULL squad not available, They still have very capable names on the pitch. Julian Draxler, Lars Bender, Neustädter, Sam and Kruse, Klose and Podolski ready to take on the striker roles. That is one strong opponent.
Aside from World Cup Qualifiers, the American's last 3 friendlies were all high scoring ... a 4-1 loss to Brazil, a 2-2 draw with Russia and a 4-2 loss to Belgium.
Expect goals but, I won't be backing the Germans at this price in the event that the USA, on home turf, keeps it closer than expected. Aside from a 0-0 draw with Holland, the Germans have seen over 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 14 matches. They are a side that loves to attack and will play attacking football. This might expose a hole or two for the Americans to exploit.