Why is this line at 3.5 and why is it at plus money? Let's take a look at a few things
Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in 11 of 18 home matches this season (a big difference from their away form). The total from their home matches would have gone under this number 10 of 18 times, and 8 of the last 11 times.
QPR struggle to score away from home, they've been shutout 7 times and have netted only one goal 7 other times (14 of their 18 matches they've scored 1 or less goals). 11 of their 18 away matches have gone under 3.5.
Motivation will also play a big role in this match. Obviously, we all know that City need the win to secure title; they don't need a 5-0 win because they essentially have the differential locked up. QPR, on the otherhand, is playing for a draw. A loss and they have a chance to be relegated with a Bolton win. I expect them to imlpement a stingy game plan here, with the goal to be a scoreless draw. You should see a lot of players behind the ball, defending, and looking to counter.
Poetic justice, if you believe in it, could be served here. Mark Hughes was, in the opinion of many including myself, sacked rather unfairly by City a few years back. In came Mancini who promptly took them to a FA Cup title CL spot the following season. Mark Hughes would love nothing more than to steal a point here to ruin their season. This isn't a reason to make the bet, but any City fan is fully expecting a stumble on Sunday, it's what they've always done.
If City does take an early lead, do you see them opening up the game or sitting on the lead. I see the latter. Look for Nigel de Jong to be subbed in the middle of the second half to secure the midfield and sit on their lead, if they have one. I see a 2-0 type of game here but would not be at all surprsied by a low scoring draw. Regardless, this line is a half goal too high so you have to take advantage. No way you can convince me that this game goes over more than 55% of the time.
Why is this line at 3.5 and why is it at plus money? Let's take a look at a few things
Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in 11 of 18 home matches this season (a big difference from their away form). The total from their home matches would have gone under this number 10 of 18 times, and 8 of the last 11 times.
QPR struggle to score away from home, they've been shutout 7 times and have netted only one goal 7 other times (14 of their 18 matches they've scored 1 or less goals). 11 of their 18 away matches have gone under 3.5.
Motivation will also play a big role in this match. Obviously, we all know that City need the win to secure title; they don't need a 5-0 win because they essentially have the differential locked up. QPR, on the otherhand, is playing for a draw. A loss and they have a chance to be relegated with a Bolton win. I expect them to imlpement a stingy game plan here, with the goal to be a scoreless draw. You should see a lot of players behind the ball, defending, and looking to counter.
Poetic justice, if you believe in it, could be served here. Mark Hughes was, in the opinion of many including myself, sacked rather unfairly by City a few years back. In came Mancini who promptly took them to a FA Cup title CL spot the following season. Mark Hughes would love nothing more than to steal a point here to ruin their season. This isn't a reason to make the bet, but any City fan is fully expecting a stumble on Sunday, it's what they've always done.
If City does take an early lead, do you see them opening up the game or sitting on the lead. I see the latter. Look for Nigel de Jong to be subbed in the middle of the second half to secure the midfield and sit on their lead, if they have one. I see a 2-0 type of game here but would not be at all surprsied by a low scoring draw. Regardless, this line is a half goal too high so you have to take advantage. No way you can convince me that this game goes over more than 55% of the time.
QPR might be chasing it a bit, but I see Man City locking down more than they will be chasing. We saw how they played against United toward the end of the match; this game is just as, if not more, important. When it comes down to it, Mancini is Italian and he'd rather win 1-0 than win 5-0 if it risks the draw. Could they score 5? Of course. I just think the odds are in the favor of the under at that line and price.
QPR might be chasing it a bit, but I see Man City locking down more than they will be chasing. We saw how they played against United toward the end of the match; this game is just as, if not more, important. When it comes down to it, Mancini is Italian and he'd rather win 1-0 than win 5-0 if it risks the draw. Could they score 5? Of course. I just think the odds are in the favor of the under at that line and price.
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