These plays were tweeted out this afternoon.I have finally gotten around to putting together my detailed analysis.You don’t have to agree. These represent my views and reasons.Whatever you bet, good luck to you all and enjoy what should be an exciting game. Due to space constraints in posts, there will be many pages to this analysis. Hope you enjoy the handicap.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
This game is going to be a dandy. Given that this is the crowning jewel for Europe, pardon the fact that this write up is going to be lengthy … given that my unit sizes are significant, I also want to make sure I’ve covered all my bases here.
Do not expect Bayern to sit back and take any defensive posture in this game.That is not their style. They certainly don’t want a repeat of last year’s loss to Chelsea, a game they thoroughly outplayed Chelsea in but were victim to missed opportunities and the dreaded penalty shootout. Expect Bayern to take the game right to Borussia Dortmund from the start and expect a free flowing open contest in this one between two teams that know each other well.
I love Bayern’s approach to their tactics this year.There are few teams that play the way they do, in which they utilize every square inch of the field in order to set-up plays and make room for their deadly crosses and to make space for the forwards with some excellent attacking ability up the wings.
Where most leagues and teams have gone to a tighter up the middle approach, Bayern, like Real Madrid, Chelsea, United, Spurs and a handful of others like to do, they like to create many of their chances from the wings and with creative play on the outside with deadly counters.They have an abundance of talent on the wings and I expect them to create many chances from the wings but be very mindful of attacking the Dortmund central defenders as well.
Borussia Dortmund is a team that I admittedly counted out from reaching the finals but as their second place showing in Germany showed and in the mere fact they made it to the finals by getting past Real Madrid (close I may add) they are truly a force that must be respected.
ROAD TO THE FINAL:
I believe that between these two teams Bayern Munich had the toughest path to the finals.Bayern had to come through Italian Champions Juventus (4-0 aggregate), Arsenal (3-2 aggregate at a time when Arsenal was surging in the EPL and arguably in the midst of their best form of the year and they thrashed tournament favourite and La Liga Champions Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate.
These plays were tweeted out this afternoon.I have finally gotten around to putting together my detailed analysis.You don’t have to agree. These represent my views and reasons.Whatever you bet, good luck to you all and enjoy what should be an exciting game. Due to space constraints in posts, there will be many pages to this analysis. Hope you enjoy the handicap.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich
This game is going to be a dandy. Given that this is the crowning jewel for Europe, pardon the fact that this write up is going to be lengthy … given that my unit sizes are significant, I also want to make sure I’ve covered all my bases here.
Do not expect Bayern to sit back and take any defensive posture in this game.That is not their style. They certainly don’t want a repeat of last year’s loss to Chelsea, a game they thoroughly outplayed Chelsea in but were victim to missed opportunities and the dreaded penalty shootout. Expect Bayern to take the game right to Borussia Dortmund from the start and expect a free flowing open contest in this one between two teams that know each other well.
I love Bayern’s approach to their tactics this year.There are few teams that play the way they do, in which they utilize every square inch of the field in order to set-up plays and make room for their deadly crosses and to make space for the forwards with some excellent attacking ability up the wings.
Where most leagues and teams have gone to a tighter up the middle approach, Bayern, like Real Madrid, Chelsea, United, Spurs and a handful of others like to do, they like to create many of their chances from the wings and with creative play on the outside with deadly counters.They have an abundance of talent on the wings and I expect them to create many chances from the wings but be very mindful of attacking the Dortmund central defenders as well.
Borussia Dortmund is a team that I admittedly counted out from reaching the finals but as their second place showing in Germany showed and in the mere fact they made it to the finals by getting past Real Madrid (close I may add) they are truly a force that must be respected.
ROAD TO THE FINAL:
I believe that between these two teams Bayern Munich had the toughest path to the finals.Bayern had to come through Italian Champions Juventus (4-0 aggregate), Arsenal (3-2 aggregate at a time when Arsenal was surging in the EPL and arguably in the midst of their best form of the year and they thrashed tournament favourite and La Liga Champions Barcelona 7-0 on aggregate.
Dortmund drew Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk and 2 Spanish sides Malaga (finished 6th) and Real Madrid in their knock out rounds.The Malaga win in the return leg of that tie was somewhat controversial as they needed a late winner after Malaga looked to be in the clear.The stoppage time winner was clearly offside.Then, they benefited from a penalty against Madrid to beat them at home 4-1 and almost lost that tie when Real Madrid came alive late in the return leg to win that game 2-0 and could very easily have scored a couple more. Real was also denied a penalty in that return tie.
Both teams are deserving to be here, don’t misunderstand me, but Bayern Munich had the hardest path to this final, beating two domestic title winners.Strength of opponent is always a factor in my handicap.
Experience counts for something:
Don’t look for Bayern to do what they did last year when they drew 1-1 after 90 minutes against Chelsea.When you look at the match stats you can see how ugly that game really could have been.Bayern had 13 first half shots but only got 2 on target.They came out and peppered Chelsea with 14 shots in the second half and only put 4 on target.Including extra time, Bayern Munich had 35 shots in that game but managed only 7 on target .. those are NOT typical Bayern conversion ratios. They could have destroyed Chelsea if they hit the target as they normally do.Do not expect them to miss as many chances should they be given them this time around.I also expect them to do the same today in terms of peppering the Dortmund goal with shots.
Bayern has been here before (2010 and 2012 – both losses) and will not be mesmerized by the big lights and atmosphere surrounding the final.Don’t kid yourself that this stuff doesn’t make a difference because it does.Most players on Bayern have been here and done this before. This is not so for Dortmund’s squad.This was noticeable in how Dortmund went into Madrid and lost 2-0.When Allegri fielded a young squad for Milan in Barcelona for the return leg of that tie, you could see the younger players on Milan get caught up in the tension and flare of the moment.THIS IS A FACTOR that I considered in the handicap of the match and made slight adjustments (minor in the grand scheme of rating numbers) to my spreadsheet parameters.
Dortmund drew Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk and 2 Spanish sides Malaga (finished 6th) and Real Madrid in their knock out rounds.The Malaga win in the return leg of that tie was somewhat controversial as they needed a late winner after Malaga looked to be in the clear.The stoppage time winner was clearly offside.Then, they benefited from a penalty against Madrid to beat them at home 4-1 and almost lost that tie when Real Madrid came alive late in the return leg to win that game 2-0 and could very easily have scored a couple more. Real was also denied a penalty in that return tie.
Both teams are deserving to be here, don’t misunderstand me, but Bayern Munich had the hardest path to this final, beating two domestic title winners.Strength of opponent is always a factor in my handicap.
Experience counts for something:
Don’t look for Bayern to do what they did last year when they drew 1-1 after 90 minutes against Chelsea.When you look at the match stats you can see how ugly that game really could have been.Bayern had 13 first half shots but only got 2 on target.They came out and peppered Chelsea with 14 shots in the second half and only put 4 on target.Including extra time, Bayern Munich had 35 shots in that game but managed only 7 on target .. those are NOT typical Bayern conversion ratios. They could have destroyed Chelsea if they hit the target as they normally do.Do not expect them to miss as many chances should they be given them this time around.I also expect them to do the same today in terms of peppering the Dortmund goal with shots.
Bayern has been here before (2010 and 2012 – both losses) and will not be mesmerized by the big lights and atmosphere surrounding the final.Don’t kid yourself that this stuff doesn’t make a difference because it does.Most players on Bayern have been here and done this before. This is not so for Dortmund’s squad.This was noticeable in how Dortmund went into Madrid and lost 2-0.When Allegri fielded a young squad for Milan in Barcelona for the return leg of that tie, you could see the younger players on Milan get caught up in the tension and flare of the moment.THIS IS A FACTOR that I considered in the handicap of the match and made slight adjustments (minor in the grand scheme of rating numbers) to my spreadsheet parameters.
Again, adjustments to reflect the emotional significance of this match were made to my power ratings. The edge in this match without a doubt goes to Bayern Munich.Bayern is looking to complete the TRIPLE for their departing manager.As you all know, ex Barcelona skipper Pep Guardiola will take over the team next year as we heard in an announcement that was made halfway through the season.The players love playing for Jupp Heynckes and news in January that he would be replaced by Pep Guardiola didn’t sit right with some of the players and fans. (Announcing a coaching change for 2013-14 halfway through the existing campaign. It was no secret that Heynckes disliked the announcement and the manner in which it was made but, the true professional he is, he continued to move his squad along to the point where they are today and more importantly, his team believes in him.I’ll bet my left arm had this occurred with another manager such as Mourinho the team would have fallen apart.However, Heynckes kept his emotions discreet and quiet and never let it affect the manner in which he managed and his team in return has given him their all.This is an intangible that cannot be handicapped but counts for a lot. EMOTION. Bayern have already qualified for the DFB-Pokal Final (German Cup) vsVfB Stuttgart, a game they lost last season to Dortmund, 5-2 admittedly after their hearts were broken after their Champions League loss.If Bayern can win today and win the German Cup they’ll complete the triple for their departing manager. Coincidentally, the last team to win a “continental” treble was Bayern Munich in 2001 when that year they won the Bundesliga, the Champions League and the German Cup.Like this season, they are 2 wins away from repeating that honour.These little facts are not lost on players.Only 3 teams have managed to win the league title, Champions League and the nation’s cup and Bayern is one of them (along with Liverpool and Real Madrid.No team has done it twice)
All this talk about Bayern and their manager is in no way meant to disrespect or undermine the admirable work done this year by Dortmund’s manager Klopp who has done an admiral job and is well loved by his players at Dortmund too.However given the situation as it exists, I have to give the emotional edge to Bayern.
Again, adjustments to reflect the emotional significance of this match were made to my power ratings. The edge in this match without a doubt goes to Bayern Munich.Bayern is looking to complete the TRIPLE for their departing manager.As you all know, ex Barcelona skipper Pep Guardiola will take over the team next year as we heard in an announcement that was made halfway through the season.The players love playing for Jupp Heynckes and news in January that he would be replaced by Pep Guardiola didn’t sit right with some of the players and fans. (Announcing a coaching change for 2013-14 halfway through the existing campaign. It was no secret that Heynckes disliked the announcement and the manner in which it was made but, the true professional he is, he continued to move his squad along to the point where they are today and more importantly, his team believes in him.I’ll bet my left arm had this occurred with another manager such as Mourinho the team would have fallen apart.However, Heynckes kept his emotions discreet and quiet and never let it affect the manner in which he managed and his team in return has given him their all.This is an intangible that cannot be handicapped but counts for a lot. EMOTION. Bayern have already qualified for the DFB-Pokal Final (German Cup) vsVfB Stuttgart, a game they lost last season to Dortmund, 5-2 admittedly after their hearts were broken after their Champions League loss.If Bayern can win today and win the German Cup they’ll complete the triple for their departing manager. Coincidentally, the last team to win a “continental” treble was Bayern Munich in 2001 when that year they won the Bundesliga, the Champions League and the German Cup.Like this season, they are 2 wins away from repeating that honour.These little facts are not lost on players.Only 3 teams have managed to win the league title, Champions League and the nation’s cup and Bayern is one of them (along with Liverpool and Real Madrid.No team has done it twice)
All this talk about Bayern and their manager is in no way meant to disrespect or undermine the admirable work done this year by Dortmund’s manager Klopp who has done an admiral job and is well loved by his players at Dortmund too.However given the situation as it exists, I have to give the emotional edge to Bayern.
Considering both these teams come from the Bundesliga it makes things a whole lot easier.
Like I already mentioned, these two teams finished the domestic campaign 1-2 with Bayern capturing the crown.
Domestically, Bayern Munich scored 98 goals in 34 games.An offensive machine averaging 2.88 goals per game on the year.Since this is a neutral venue, let’s look at their away scoring that saw them score 42 goals in 17 matches. Or 2.47 goals per game.Defensively, they only allowed 7 goals in 17 matches away from home in the domestic league and on the year allowed 18 goals in 34 games.Incredible.Their domestic games averaged 3.41 total goals per game.
As for Dortmund, they scored 81 in 34 matches domestically and allowed considerably more at 42 goals. On the season this represented a 3.61 total goals per game average.Away from home Dortmund scored 41 in 17 games, on par with Munich but allowed 23 v Bayern’s 7.
These were the two highest scoring German teams in the Bundesliga by a long shot with the next highest scoring team Bayer Leverkusen finishing with 65 goals scored, a full 16 goals behind Dortmund..This clearly shows the gap.
Turning to Champions League play,Bayern has 29 goals in 12 UCL games to lead all teams in the competition. (2.41 gpg).Dortmund ranked 3rd with 23 goals in 12 games or just under 2 per match on average.Dortmund was 2nd in shots on target (8.91) and Bayern was 3rd (8.66). Given that Bayern had 16.8 shots per game and Dortmund had 14.6 shots per game, both teams conversion rates of over 13% give us a good probability that both teams will find the back of the net. Edge goes to Bayern though as they scored more with fewer attempts on target. (2.4 goals per game to Dortmund’s 1.9.Defensively in the Champions League, just like the domestic league, Bayern owns the edge with just under a goal per game allowed and Dortmund averaging a goal a game allowed.It is also noteworthy that Bayern has scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 Champions League matches.
Dortmund has seen over 2.5 goals go 20-5 in their last 25 matches in all competitions. (83% of their matches in that span).Thanks to their superior defence, Bayern Munich has seen the over 2.5 go 13-12 in their last 25 matches in all competitions but here’s the difference; in those 25 games for Dortmund they kept only 6 clean sheets.
Considering both these teams come from the Bundesliga it makes things a whole lot easier.
Like I already mentioned, these two teams finished the domestic campaign 1-2 with Bayern capturing the crown.
Domestically, Bayern Munich scored 98 goals in 34 games.An offensive machine averaging 2.88 goals per game on the year.Since this is a neutral venue, let’s look at their away scoring that saw them score 42 goals in 17 matches. Or 2.47 goals per game.Defensively, they only allowed 7 goals in 17 matches away from home in the domestic league and on the year allowed 18 goals in 34 games.Incredible.Their domestic games averaged 3.41 total goals per game.
As for Dortmund, they scored 81 in 34 matches domestically and allowed considerably more at 42 goals. On the season this represented a 3.61 total goals per game average.Away from home Dortmund scored 41 in 17 games, on par with Munich but allowed 23 v Bayern’s 7.
These were the two highest scoring German teams in the Bundesliga by a long shot with the next highest scoring team Bayer Leverkusen finishing with 65 goals scored, a full 16 goals behind Dortmund..This clearly shows the gap.
Turning to Champions League play,Bayern has 29 goals in 12 UCL games to lead all teams in the competition. (2.41 gpg).Dortmund ranked 3rd with 23 goals in 12 games or just under 2 per match on average.Dortmund was 2nd in shots on target (8.91) and Bayern was 3rd (8.66). Given that Bayern had 16.8 shots per game and Dortmund had 14.6 shots per game, both teams conversion rates of over 13% give us a good probability that both teams will find the back of the net. Edge goes to Bayern though as they scored more with fewer attempts on target. (2.4 goals per game to Dortmund’s 1.9.Defensively in the Champions League, just like the domestic league, Bayern owns the edge with just under a goal per game allowed and Dortmund averaging a goal a game allowed.It is also noteworthy that Bayern has scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 Champions League matches.
Dortmund has seen over 2.5 goals go 20-5 in their last 25 matches in all competitions. (83% of their matches in that span).Thanks to their superior defence, Bayern Munich has seen the over 2.5 go 13-12 in their last 25 matches in all competitions but here’s the difference; in those 25 games for Dortmund they kept only 6 clean sheets.
Götzewill be out of this match for Dortmund.However, he only has 2 goals in 12 Champions League games this year so it is really debatable how big of a loss this will be for Dortmund whose offence clearly runs through Lewandawski. He leads the team with 10 goals in the UCL.The closest team mate is Reus with 4 goals.We then compare that to Muller (8), Pizzaro (4) then Kroos, Robben (3 each) and Gomez (2).Bayern Munich has more scoring threats.
Defensively, Dortmund is expected to start Lukasz Piszczek but take note that he is already scheduled to undergo thigh surgery this summer and his partner Mats Hummels was deemed fit but is still nursing a minor ankle injury. These two defenders, not at 100% will somehow have to try to keep the likes of Martínez , Schweinsteiger, Robben,Ribéry, and Müller Mandzukic (or Gomez) at bay. No easy task in such a big game.
At the end of the day, Bayern Munich has many more scoring options than Dortmund and as a result will be more difficult to defend. I don’t think these teams are going to clog the midfield and play a game of chess.I really think that these clubs will take it to each other and try to win the game from the get-go, confident in their abilities to go forward, especially, Bayern. An early goal will be nice for the overall pace of the game but not vital.These teams don’t need any feeling out period. They know each other so well from playing against each other domestically. I look for each team to go right after what they perceive to be the weaknesses in their opponents game. There is no “return leg” .. this is a one game wins all final.
Both teams play similar 4-2-3-1 formations and both have the tendency to revert to 4-3-3 formations in game and as such, both managers know how to exploit these formations. FYI, the last time these teams met on a neutral field, Dortmund won the game 5-2 (2012 DFB-Pokal final) however Bayern was off the loss to
Chelsea and had packed it in by that game.
I know that these two teams know each other very well and I’ve read some arguments that as a result, this will result in a tactical match that will present itself with very few opportunities at goal.I disagree. Munich lost last year’s Champions League final because it failed to finish its chances of which they had MANY.They won’t want to face the prospects of dominating the match and losing again.
I don’t expect Munich to take their foot off the throttle if they do go out in front much in the same way I don’t expect Dortmund to take their foot off the throttle if they are in the lead. Both teams have too much offensive ability (as we’ve seen all year with Bayern and with Dortmund’s ability to score goals in bursts and especially score them late).Both clubs have been a high scoring clubs in Champions League play and 1-0 won’t be enough.Expect the game to really open up once that inevitable first goal comes.
Götzewill be out of this match for Dortmund.However, he only has 2 goals in 12 Champions League games this year so it is really debatable how big of a loss this will be for Dortmund whose offence clearly runs through Lewandawski. He leads the team with 10 goals in the UCL.The closest team mate is Reus with 4 goals.We then compare that to Muller (8), Pizzaro (4) then Kroos, Robben (3 each) and Gomez (2).Bayern Munich has more scoring threats.
Defensively, Dortmund is expected to start Lukasz Piszczek but take note that he is already scheduled to undergo thigh surgery this summer and his partner Mats Hummels was deemed fit but is still nursing a minor ankle injury. These two defenders, not at 100% will somehow have to try to keep the likes of Martínez , Schweinsteiger, Robben,Ribéry, and Müller Mandzukic (or Gomez) at bay. No easy task in such a big game.
At the end of the day, Bayern Munich has many more scoring options than Dortmund and as a result will be more difficult to defend. I don’t think these teams are going to clog the midfield and play a game of chess.I really think that these clubs will take it to each other and try to win the game from the get-go, confident in their abilities to go forward, especially, Bayern. An early goal will be nice for the overall pace of the game but not vital.These teams don’t need any feeling out period. They know each other so well from playing against each other domestically. I look for each team to go right after what they perceive to be the weaknesses in their opponents game. There is no “return leg” .. this is a one game wins all final.
Both teams play similar 4-2-3-1 formations and both have the tendency to revert to 4-3-3 formations in game and as such, both managers know how to exploit these formations. FYI, the last time these teams met on a neutral field, Dortmund won the game 5-2 (2012 DFB-Pokal final) however Bayern was off the loss to
Chelsea and had packed it in by that game.
I know that these two teams know each other very well and I’ve read some arguments that as a result, this will result in a tactical match that will present itself with very few opportunities at goal.I disagree. Munich lost last year’s Champions League final because it failed to finish its chances of which they had MANY.They won’t want to face the prospects of dominating the match and losing again.
I don’t expect Munich to take their foot off the throttle if they do go out in front much in the same way I don’t expect Dortmund to take their foot off the throttle if they are in the lead. Both teams have too much offensive ability (as we’ve seen all year with Bayern and with Dortmund’s ability to score goals in bursts and especially score them late).Both clubs have been a high scoring clubs in Champions League play and 1-0 won’t be enough.Expect the game to really open up once that inevitable first goal comes.
Jurgen Klopp is likely to go with the same starting 11 that played (and lost) to lowly Hoffenheim last weekend but it is fair to suggest that Dortmund may have been looking forward to this match.As for Bayern, no significant team changes from the squad that scored 4 goals against Gladbach last weekend are expected.
Form: Bayern is exceptional form at the moment, going 21-1-1 in their last 23 games in all competitions.In fact they have only 2 losses since last October.Dortmund has slipped in form since beating Real Madrid at home 4-1.They have played 5 matches since that win BUT have only 1 win in that span with 2 losses and 2 draws rounding out the rest of those 5 games. (albeit one of those draws was against Bayern who rested many players)
These teams have played each other 4 times this season with 2 of the games ending 1-1 and Munich winning the other two by 1-0 and 2-1 scores. THIS IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST FACTOR why I think the line is where it is. However, in this winner take all game, things will be a tad different and I cannot overlook FORM as both teams get ready to enter this match. Bayern is the favourite for a reason and I believe we are getting a slightly good line on them to win it because of the tight matches these two have played against each other this year.Bayern though is the club with the invaluable experience on this stage and has far more attacking options.
PROP BET: A FULL 2 UNITS ON OVER 4.5 CARDS AT +105 ODDS
Factors to consider … these two teams hate each other and are each other’s biggest competition in Germany.They’ve played each other 4 times this season and emotions finally got the better of them in their last meeting, a very chippy affair that saw 7 cards and a sending off.I expect that chippiness to continue into this game as there is much more on the line.
This game will be officiated by Italian referee Nicola Rizzoli. He’s officiated 4 games in this year’s Champions League, all in the group stages. These games were Celtic v Benfica (6 yellow cards), Arsenal v Shalke (5 yellow cards), Braga v Galatasaray, (6 yellow cards) and Malaga v Porto which saw 7 yellow cards and a red for a total of 8.So, as you can tell, he doesn’t mind issuing the cards and while it is expected that he’ll let the teams play to start, he won’t hesitate to show cards to keep them in check,He officiated 5 Champions League games last year and averaged 5.6 cards per game.He averaged 5 cards issued per game in Serie A this season and in the 5 Coppa Italia games he refereed this season he issued an average of 7.4 cards per game. In Champions League play (both teams played 12 games) Bayern was carded an average of 2.3 per game. Dortmund, 1.1.Not a lot, but we must now factor into the equation that these two domestic rivals will play each other , the chippiness of their last match that should rear its head at some point and the fact that Rizzoli is not afraid to show cards.
Jurgen Klopp is likely to go with the same starting 11 that played (and lost) to lowly Hoffenheim last weekend but it is fair to suggest that Dortmund may have been looking forward to this match.As for Bayern, no significant team changes from the squad that scored 4 goals against Gladbach last weekend are expected.
Form: Bayern is exceptional form at the moment, going 21-1-1 in their last 23 games in all competitions.In fact they have only 2 losses since last October.Dortmund has slipped in form since beating Real Madrid at home 4-1.They have played 5 matches since that win BUT have only 1 win in that span with 2 losses and 2 draws rounding out the rest of those 5 games. (albeit one of those draws was against Bayern who rested many players)
These teams have played each other 4 times this season with 2 of the games ending 1-1 and Munich winning the other two by 1-0 and 2-1 scores. THIS IS THE SINGLE BIGGEST FACTOR why I think the line is where it is. However, in this winner take all game, things will be a tad different and I cannot overlook FORM as both teams get ready to enter this match. Bayern is the favourite for a reason and I believe we are getting a slightly good line on them to win it because of the tight matches these two have played against each other this year.Bayern though is the club with the invaluable experience on this stage and has far more attacking options.
PROP BET: A FULL 2 UNITS ON OVER 4.5 CARDS AT +105 ODDS
Factors to consider … these two teams hate each other and are each other’s biggest competition in Germany.They’ve played each other 4 times this season and emotions finally got the better of them in their last meeting, a very chippy affair that saw 7 cards and a sending off.I expect that chippiness to continue into this game as there is much more on the line.
This game will be officiated by Italian referee Nicola Rizzoli. He’s officiated 4 games in this year’s Champions League, all in the group stages. These games were Celtic v Benfica (6 yellow cards), Arsenal v Shalke (5 yellow cards), Braga v Galatasaray, (6 yellow cards) and Malaga v Porto which saw 7 yellow cards and a red for a total of 8.So, as you can tell, he doesn’t mind issuing the cards and while it is expected that he’ll let the teams play to start, he won’t hesitate to show cards to keep them in check,He officiated 5 Champions League games last year and averaged 5.6 cards per game.He averaged 5 cards issued per game in Serie A this season and in the 5 Coppa Italia games he refereed this season he issued an average of 7.4 cards per game. In Champions League play (both teams played 12 games) Bayern was carded an average of 2.3 per game. Dortmund, 1.1.Not a lot, but we must now factor into the equation that these two domestic rivals will play each other , the chippiness of their last match that should rear its head at some point and the fact that Rizzoli is not afraid to show cards.
I go to the extent of breaking down these matches because my units wagered are SIGNIFICANT. My units don’t represent $100.00.My units are my fixed wager amounts. They are considerable which is why I detail as much in my handicap as possible.
Therefore, as always, I want to make sure that any possible angle is covered.HOWEVER, this is not to say that things always work out the way they do.However, in the big picture, as I see it, Bayern Munich is the rightful favorite in this game and deserves to be backed are reasonable odds of -120 (that was the line when I locked it in earlier today when I tweeted it).Dortmund has attracted attention but I feel some of it was because of their late game heroics and the open style of football they play.However, the reality is, all my power ratings make Bayern the rightful favorite and the odds on favorite to win this match within the 90 minutes.(Watch … after all this, the game will probably end 0-0 lol).
I’ve continued to tweak and modify my ratings and spreadsheet models and have had enough time in between matches to update them as best I could entering this match with minor adjustments for the points I’ve highlighted in this write up.
Of my 4 models, I have a consensus on both the side and total. Something that has rarely happened all season.2 of my models make the game 2-1 Bayern Munich and the other two make the game 3-1 Bayern Munich.Statistically, these are the most likely outcomes according to my projections. I ran a fifth experimental model as well which delivered a 3-0 Bayern win and kept Dortmund off the score sheet altogether.
So, with all that said, please BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE because at the end of it all, the players need to execute for us no matter how we handicap the game. We could be dead on with analysis yet like last year, we may only see Bayern score 1 goal on 35 shots.Never bet beyond your means and please, just because this is along write up, don’t be afraid to go ahead and bet what you feel if you feel differently. After all, we’re here to beat the bookies not each other.Whatever your bets, it has been a fun and exciting European campaign this year and this match shouldn’t disappoint. Expect a game full of chances.The rest is up to the players. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
THE PLAYS:
1. Bayern Munich -120 To Win (90 Minutes) 2.4 units to win 2 units
2. OVER 2.5 -122 TO WIN 2 UNITS 2.44 units to win 2 units
I go to the extent of breaking down these matches because my units wagered are SIGNIFICANT. My units don’t represent $100.00.My units are my fixed wager amounts. They are considerable which is why I detail as much in my handicap as possible.
Therefore, as always, I want to make sure that any possible angle is covered.HOWEVER, this is not to say that things always work out the way they do.However, in the big picture, as I see it, Bayern Munich is the rightful favorite in this game and deserves to be backed are reasonable odds of -120 (that was the line when I locked it in earlier today when I tweeted it).Dortmund has attracted attention but I feel some of it was because of their late game heroics and the open style of football they play.However, the reality is, all my power ratings make Bayern the rightful favorite and the odds on favorite to win this match within the 90 minutes.(Watch … after all this, the game will probably end 0-0 lol).
I’ve continued to tweak and modify my ratings and spreadsheet models and have had enough time in between matches to update them as best I could entering this match with minor adjustments for the points I’ve highlighted in this write up.
Of my 4 models, I have a consensus on both the side and total. Something that has rarely happened all season.2 of my models make the game 2-1 Bayern Munich and the other two make the game 3-1 Bayern Munich.Statistically, these are the most likely outcomes according to my projections. I ran a fifth experimental model as well which delivered a 3-0 Bayern win and kept Dortmund off the score sheet altogether.
So, with all that said, please BET ONLY WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE because at the end of it all, the players need to execute for us no matter how we handicap the game. We could be dead on with analysis yet like last year, we may only see Bayern score 1 goal on 35 shots.Never bet beyond your means and please, just because this is along write up, don’t be afraid to go ahead and bet what you feel if you feel differently. After all, we’re here to beat the bookies not each other.Whatever your bets, it has been a fun and exciting European campaign this year and this match shouldn’t disappoint. Expect a game full of chances.The rest is up to the players. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
THE PLAYS:
1. Bayern Munich -120 To Win (90 Minutes) 2.4 units to win 2 units
2. OVER 2.5 -122 TO WIN 2 UNITS 2.44 units to win 2 units
Cheers guys ... Win or lose, it's been a highly profitable European campaign . Will tweak the spreadsheets over the summer and who knows I might start throwing some unders in the mix... Believe it or not I've been logging all qualifying plays that spat out unders and they would have gone roughly 55% on a very "rough" glance ... Cheers all and enjoy the game .... My fingers are going to be busy tweeting these lengthy names today so let's hope the shorter names do all the scoring lol
Cheers guys and thanks for the kind words. Let's beat the books!! Not each other.
Cheers guys ... Win or lose, it's been a highly profitable European campaign . Will tweak the spreadsheets over the summer and who knows I might start throwing some unders in the mix... Believe it or not I've been logging all qualifying plays that spat out unders and they would have gone roughly 55% on a very "rough" glance ... Cheers all and enjoy the game .... My fingers are going to be busy tweeting these lengthy names today so let's hope the shorter names do all the scoring lol
Cheers guys and thanks for the kind words. Let's beat the books!! Not each other.
Hey Fever, very nice write up I love those write ups and have a lot of respect. But today, I am going against you and bet: Borrussia dortmund to win the cup +200.
Hey Fever, very nice write up I love those write ups and have a lot of respect. But today, I am going against you and bet: Borrussia dortmund to win the cup +200.
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