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what are the odds?

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Posted: #1
situation is thus:   before the fact what are the odds of getting black kings 3x in a row.?     i have no clue ,i guessed 8000-1  the guy laffed, broke out his calc. and came up with  after the 1st one  1.7+million-1.  wow      was funny to see.
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #2
2,331473976 billion to 1 is my calculation.
 
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Posted: #3
I'm not math expert but I agree with 10.

1326^3 is what I came up with as well. It equals what 10 said. 
 
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Posted: #4
This is how you figure it out. It is simple.   

Let me give you an easier example first so you get it. Whats the odds of flipping a coin twice and getting  Heads Heads? It is 1/4
Here are the options

Heads then tails
tails then heads
tails then tails
heads then heads

Those are the only four options right? So its easy.   The math goes like this

1  X  1        1
2      2   =   4

See? It is 1/2 X 1/2 which is 1/4

Now to your question

Card one being a black king is   2/52 chance
Card two being a black king is    1/51 chance  ( cause one is gone)

So 

1   x  1 = 1
52 x 51 = 2652

So the odds of it happening ONCE is 1/2652.  

Then you have to MULTIPLY 3X to get the answer

1               1           1          1 
2652   x   2652 x  2652  =    18651791808

So the odds are  over 18.65 billion 
 
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Posted: #5
JamesD..
 
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Posted: #6
james d and 10 disagree... who am i to dispute either. i tend to go with james as he is more concise and clear, showing his dicipherable work to myself,work is shown none the less.   thank you both.  wow
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Posted: #7
@2+2

this is in dispute


52 x 51 = 2652  is really  1326  it is half they say for the blak  KK can come in any order
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #8
go to 2+2     search   for  ,     SHOESHINEBOX  ,   posts    U SEE  IT.
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #9
Look here fellas, thanks


https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/math-help-plz-whatter-da-odds-1339747/#post38814947
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by BIGfnPOO:

@2+2

this is in dispute


52 x 51 = 2652  is really  1326  it is half they say for the blak  KK can come in any order


Poo,

 I am so glad I jumped back in this thread. you are ABSOLUTELY CORRECT that the first number should be halved.  I was careless in the first calculation.  The formula is correct I just carelessy did 1/52 for the first card dealt and of course it should be 2/52 because when the first card is dealt there are 2 black kings available. After you get the first black king the second chance is 1/51 because one single black king remains and 51 cards remain.  I carelessly did 1/52 not 2/52 on first leg of formula.

It is 

2/52 x 1/51  in my haste I did 1/52 x 1/51

2/52 means of course 1/26  so what you have to do is very simply do the math at 1/26 and the answer is 1 in 233147396.

or 1 in 2.3 billion


Just goes to show that you one careless mistake ( 2/52 not 1/52) can bring you down LOL  
 
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Posted: #11
Originally Posted by p2 dog, p2 
welp he has has a 2 in 52 chance of getting one of those black kings as his first hole card and a 1 in 51 chance of getting the second one. Sooooooo

((2/52)*(1/52)) = 2/2704 which reduces to 1/1352 chance of getting dealt black kings

to happen three times in a row (1/1352)x(1/1352)x(1/1352) = 1/2,471,326,208

roughly about 1 in every 2.5 billion hands played we will get dealt black kings 3 in a row

if we were to add other players playing, it would certainly change some and be to difficult to find the answer but this in a vacuum is close




james thank you ,..big poo sez  u r a man.
bigFnPOO
james thank you ,..big poo sez  u r a man.
 
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Posted: #12
we r fukkkinnn   menn
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #13
wat
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Bling:

wat


situation?
bigFnPOO
 
 
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Posted: #15
2,331473976 billion to 1 is my calculation.


i asked david sklansky personally.  it is less than above  after the first  blk  KK  tho 
bigFnPOO
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