So, a week or so ago when I analyzed my own betting patterns to see where things have gone wrong, I went all the way back to a year and half ago when things suddenly fell apart. Now, this is not to say I’ve never had a losing season…just never one like this. What I had found was my sudden drop off seemed to corelate with the addition of regulation bets into my daily betting habits. A reversal of those bets and sticking with the Money Line juice instead would have created a rather large turnaround. Staying away from both PL and RL bets and instead braving the juice that accompanied the team I felt wins the game would net me a $2000 turnaround—that’s big...which however still would have me on a poor run. Throw in my abysmal luck with dog bets and realistically speaking I could be pretty much even. Basically, I only have myself to blame. My luck with dogs HAS to improve and with more stats piling up I still expect a turnaround to some degree going forward. Hop on board. Time to start winning some bets!
So, a week or so ago when I analyzed my own betting patterns to see where things have gone wrong, I went all the way back to a year and half ago when things suddenly fell apart. Now, this is not to say I’ve never had a losing season…just never one like this. What I had found was my sudden drop off seemed to corelate with the addition of regulation bets into my daily betting habits. A reversal of those bets and sticking with the Money Line juice instead would have created a rather large turnaround. Staying away from both PL and RL bets and instead braving the juice that accompanied the team I felt wins the game would net me a $2000 turnaround—that’s big...which however still would have me on a poor run. Throw in my abysmal luck with dog bets and realistically speaking I could be pretty much even. Basically, I only have myself to blame. My luck with dogs HAS to improve and with more stats piling up I still expect a turnaround to some degree going forward. Hop on board. Time to start winning some bets!
FLA -135 The Stars exploded out of the gate going 4-0 but did so against low level teams Detroit and Nashville. They’ve crashed back to reality since losing 7 of 8. More disturbing is Khudobin’s stats falling to an .866 Save% and 4.25 GAA since that early 4-0 start for Dallas. Florida starts Chris Driedger tonight and he’s been solid with a .926 Save% and 2.34 GAA. I think the difference is in the goaltending tonight and siding with the Panthers here.
NYI -170 The Isles handled Buffalo with ease their last series against them beating them 3-1 & 3-0. The Sabres, despite the off-season addition of Taylor Hall just continue to struggle and rank just below the Islanders at a paltry 2.36 GPG average. The Isles and Sabres both struggle to put pucks not the back of the net as evidenced not only by their GPG averages but also team shooting percentages ranking #25 & #26 respectively. The real edge here for the Islanders is once again in net as Semyon Varlamov holds a .925 Save% and 2.07 GAA. Since missing two weeks for postpones games, the Sabres have only scored 5 goals in their last 4 contests.
BUFF TT U2.5 -140
LAK/STL O5.5 +102 Betters who bet the posted over total for Blues game have only 6 of 18 times this season for a low loss rate of 33.3%. Betters who bet the posted over total of all Kings games have lost only 5 of 16 times for a lower loss rate of 31.2% Why? Both teams rank top third of the league (or just fringe) in Goals per game average as well as shooting %, but more likely a combination of that plus below average goaltending. Binnington hasn’t been anything great posting a Save % of .913 which ranks him #17 in the league.
ANA/ARZ U5 +110 These two teams played each other twice earlier with scores of 1-0 & 3-1. Ducks own the worst offense from a production standpoint in the NHL. Arizona isn’t far behind ranked only #24 in the league at 2.53 GPG average. PK units both reside in the top 10 to help offset special teams possibilities and Anaheim has the worst shooting % in the league. Keumper gets the call here for Arizona and he has been hot his last 6 starts with a .935 Save% and 1.81 GAA. I’d lean Arizona here but would hate to lose what I assume could be a tight low -scoring game.
ANA TT U2.5 -145 The Ducks offense, as mentioned above sits dead last in GFPG average at 1.83 and dead last in shooting % of 7.0. This offense has only scored more than 2 goals in a game 4 times this year for a win rate backing the under 2 ½ line of 77.7%
FLA -135 The Stars exploded out of the gate going 4-0 but did so against low level teams Detroit and Nashville. They’ve crashed back to reality since losing 7 of 8. More disturbing is Khudobin’s stats falling to an .866 Save% and 4.25 GAA since that early 4-0 start for Dallas. Florida starts Chris Driedger tonight and he’s been solid with a .926 Save% and 2.34 GAA. I think the difference is in the goaltending tonight and siding with the Panthers here.
NYI -170 The Isles handled Buffalo with ease their last series against them beating them 3-1 & 3-0. The Sabres, despite the off-season addition of Taylor Hall just continue to struggle and rank just below the Islanders at a paltry 2.36 GPG average. The Isles and Sabres both struggle to put pucks not the back of the net as evidenced not only by their GPG averages but also team shooting percentages ranking #25 & #26 respectively. The real edge here for the Islanders is once again in net as Semyon Varlamov holds a .925 Save% and 2.07 GAA. Since missing two weeks for postpones games, the Sabres have only scored 5 goals in their last 4 contests.
BUFF TT U2.5 -140
LAK/STL O5.5 +102 Betters who bet the posted over total for Blues game have only 6 of 18 times this season for a low loss rate of 33.3%. Betters who bet the posted over total of all Kings games have lost only 5 of 16 times for a lower loss rate of 31.2% Why? Both teams rank top third of the league (or just fringe) in Goals per game average as well as shooting %, but more likely a combination of that plus below average goaltending. Binnington hasn’t been anything great posting a Save % of .913 which ranks him #17 in the league.
ANA/ARZ U5 +110 These two teams played each other twice earlier with scores of 1-0 & 3-1. Ducks own the worst offense from a production standpoint in the NHL. Arizona isn’t far behind ranked only #24 in the league at 2.53 GPG average. PK units both reside in the top 10 to help offset special teams possibilities and Anaheim has the worst shooting % in the league. Keumper gets the call here for Arizona and he has been hot his last 6 starts with a .935 Save% and 1.81 GAA. I’d lean Arizona here but would hate to lose what I assume could be a tight low -scoring game.
ANA TT U2.5 -145 The Ducks offense, as mentioned above sits dead last in GFPG average at 1.83 and dead last in shooting % of 7.0. This offense has only scored more than 2 goals in a game 4 times this year for a win rate backing the under 2 ½ line of 77.7%
I'm with ya brother. I totally have confidence in you. I love you're write ups and you're unique take on the sport. I'm blessed so far this season, I'm having the best NHL season I have ever had. (Thank God because my NFL season was not so coincidentally my worst ever)
I'm with ya brother. I totally have confidence in you. I love you're write ups and you're unique take on the sport. I'm blessed so far this season, I'm having the best NHL season I have ever had. (Thank God because my NFL season was not so coincidentally my worst ever)
@NYBartender I'm with ya brother. I totally have confidence in you. I love you're write ups and you're unique take on the sport. I'm blessed so far this season, I'm having the best NHL season I have ever had. (Thank God because my NFL season was not so coincidentally my worst ever) Let's Do This Brother!
@NYBartender I'm with ya brother. I totally have confidence in you. I love you're write ups and you're unique take on the sport. I'm blessed so far this season, I'm having the best NHL season I have ever had. (Thank God because my NFL season was not so coincidentally my worst ever) Let's Do This Brother!
MIN/SJS O5.5 -115 Interesting total here set at 5.5. I’d expect a tad higher. But again, with how my season is going, especially my record on overs (I also started 7-1) what do I know? But regardless…expected 6 so I love 5.5 here. Why? Mainly the Sharks and Martin Jones. The San Jose team plays 9-5-2 to the posted total meaning over betters are only losing 31% of the time. Martin Jones has been abysmal this season with an ugly .882 Save% and 3.66 GAA. Throw out his one decent start of the year against pop-gun offense Anaheim—which I covered in my write-ups above—and his Save% hits a lower mark of .877 and his GAA rises to 3.84 in his other starts against actual pro-offenses. Now let us talk about Kahkonen…he is hyped up to be the future #1 for Minnesota and he very well could be…he came out of the gate with back-to-back strong appearances stopping 42 of 44 shots—against who? Anaheim! Checking his stats outside of those two appearances against the pop-gun offense, things jump dramatically in his other three starts against LAK, COL & LAK again—with a sub-par .885 Save% and 3.73 GAA. Only a 5.5 total with these two in net? Sign me up.
MIN/SJS O5.5 -115 Interesting total here set at 5.5. I’d expect a tad higher. But again, with how my season is going, especially my record on overs (I also started 7-1) what do I know? But regardless…expected 6 so I love 5.5 here. Why? Mainly the Sharks and Martin Jones. The San Jose team plays 9-5-2 to the posted total meaning over betters are only losing 31% of the time. Martin Jones has been abysmal this season with an ugly .882 Save% and 3.66 GAA. Throw out his one decent start of the year against pop-gun offense Anaheim—which I covered in my write-ups above—and his Save% hits a lower mark of .877 and his GAA rises to 3.84 in his other starts against actual pro-offenses. Now let us talk about Kahkonen…he is hyped up to be the future #1 for Minnesota and he very well could be…he came out of the gate with back-to-back strong appearances stopping 42 of 44 shots—against who? Anaheim! Checking his stats outside of those two appearances against the pop-gun offense, things jump dramatically in his other three starts against LAK, COL & LAK again—with a sub-par .885 Save% and 3.73 GAA. Only a 5.5 total with these two in net? Sign me up.
@NYBartender It's as bad as the leafs getting shut out when I jump on the over with backup goalies.
Yeah. Def wouldn't expect that. I saw Rittich and Hutchinson and was salivating for the over but looked at Calgary and saw they hadn't been scoring lately and Rittich has looked better than I thought from a stat-perspective since the first game when he allowed 4. But, I def hear you. Wouldn't have expected a shut out, thats for sure.
@NYBartender It's as bad as the leafs getting shut out when I jump on the over with backup goalies.
Yeah. Def wouldn't expect that. I saw Rittich and Hutchinson and was salivating for the over but looked at Calgary and saw they hadn't been scoring lately and Rittich has looked better than I thought from a stat-perspective since the first game when he allowed 4. But, I def hear you. Wouldn't have expected a shut out, thats for sure.
Not a losing day but a big let down. Had high hopes for a big start to this week and had the Anaheim game worked out I planned to try to double up everything on the late over that hit. Gotta keep pushing forward.
Not a losing day but a big let down. Had high hopes for a big start to this week and had the Anaheim game worked out I planned to try to double up everything on the late over that hit. Gotta keep pushing forward.
NJD -151 This is looking like Carter Hutton and his .898 Save% and 2.85 GAA and a weak offense—whom I wrote about yesterday—against MacKenzie Blackwood who has been superb this season with a .938 Save% and 2.12 GAA—and he’s done it against 3 meetings against Boston and stonewalled my Blueshirts despite being peppered with 89 SOG over two meetings. Buffalo’s offense has only scored 7 goals in 5 games since their Covid protocol postponements. I like a potentially low scoring win here for the home team.
BUFF TT U2.5 -115
WASH/PIT O6.5 -101 These teams have matched up four times thus far wit the over cashing for betters 3 of 4 games with scores of 4-3, 5-4 & 6-3. The last meeting finished at 3-1 but only because of Vanacek stopping 26 of 27 and Jarry stood tall while getting peppered stopping 39 of 42. The opportunities were there for the over and that seems to be the type of games these two play one another. Betting the Caps over the total has only lost for betters at a 35% clip this season and loses at only a 41% rate for Penguins games. The Caps #2 ranked PP unit could make some noise against the Pens #24 ranked PK unit here as well. These two teams ranked #28 & #29 in save percentage so neither side’s goalies have been getting it done. Shooting for the over here.
DET TT U2.5 -125 Similar to Anaheim, The Red Wings have only scored more than two goals in a game 5 times in 20 contests. That’s a 75% win rate on this posted total.
DET/NASH U5.5 -115 Already mentioned about the Wings struggles offensively above, but Nashville isn’t much better in the offensive zone. Detroit ranks #30 in the league in goals per game average and Nashville is just above them at #29. They share the same exact ranking when it comes to shooting percentage with only the Ducks being worse. The under for betters cashes at a 70% clip in Red Wings games.
EDM TT O3.5 -115 The Oilers score at the third highest clip in the league and since the last week of January they’ve averaged 4.06 goals per game. They get to fire rubber against Vancouver, a team that allows the fourth most scoring chances per game and the fifth most high-danger chances against per game. Due to Vancouver’s struggled in net—they rank #25 in the league in team save percentage—and to top it all off, the Canucks lead the league in percentage of high-danger chances being converted at 20%.
NJD -151 This is looking like Carter Hutton and his .898 Save% and 2.85 GAA and a weak offense—whom I wrote about yesterday—against MacKenzie Blackwood who has been superb this season with a .938 Save% and 2.12 GAA—and he’s done it against 3 meetings against Boston and stonewalled my Blueshirts despite being peppered with 89 SOG over two meetings. Buffalo’s offense has only scored 7 goals in 5 games since their Covid protocol postponements. I like a potentially low scoring win here for the home team.
BUFF TT U2.5 -115
WASH/PIT O6.5 -101 These teams have matched up four times thus far wit the over cashing for betters 3 of 4 games with scores of 4-3, 5-4 & 6-3. The last meeting finished at 3-1 but only because of Vanacek stopping 26 of 27 and Jarry stood tall while getting peppered stopping 39 of 42. The opportunities were there for the over and that seems to be the type of games these two play one another. Betting the Caps over the total has only lost for betters at a 35% clip this season and loses at only a 41% rate for Penguins games. The Caps #2 ranked PP unit could make some noise against the Pens #24 ranked PK unit here as well. These two teams ranked #28 & #29 in save percentage so neither side’s goalies have been getting it done. Shooting for the over here.
DET TT U2.5 -125 Similar to Anaheim, The Red Wings have only scored more than two goals in a game 5 times in 20 contests. That’s a 75% win rate on this posted total.
DET/NASH U5.5 -115 Already mentioned about the Wings struggles offensively above, but Nashville isn’t much better in the offensive zone. Detroit ranks #30 in the league in goals per game average and Nashville is just above them at #29. They share the same exact ranking when it comes to shooting percentage with only the Ducks being worse. The under for betters cashes at a 70% clip in Red Wings games.
EDM TT O3.5 -115 The Oilers score at the third highest clip in the league and since the last week of January they’ve averaged 4.06 goals per game. They get to fire rubber against Vancouver, a team that allows the fourth most scoring chances per game and the fifth most high-danger chances against per game. Due to Vancouver’s struggled in net—they rank #25 in the league in team save percentage—and to top it all off, the Canucks lead the league in percentage of high-danger chances being converted at 20%.
FLA -140 Dallas is spiraling downward after the hot 4-0 start to the season going 1-4-4 in their next 9 games. As I mentioned a few days back, that start came against bottom feeding Detroit and Nashville teams and they’ve struggled since. Khudobin has struggled since that game and was peppered with 52 SOG in his last game out-a 3-1 loss to Florida—so he did all he could. This is a re-match of that outcome and I’d expect similar results other than the shot totals. Chris Driedger is back in net and he’s been solid with a .929 Save% and 2.20 GAA. Back the home team here.
FLA -140 Dallas is spiraling downward after the hot 4-0 start to the season going 1-4-4 in their next 9 games. As I mentioned a few days back, that start came against bottom feeding Detroit and Nashville teams and they’ve struggled since. Khudobin has struggled since that game and was peppered with 52 SOG in his last game out-a 3-1 loss to Florida—so he did all he could. This is a re-match of that outcome and I’d expect similar results other than the shot totals. Chris Driedger is back in net and he’s been solid with a .929 Save% and 2.20 GAA. Back the home team here.
NYR/PHL U5.5 -110 No Panarin, Kakko or Chytil again for the Rangers. That’s a lot of potential offense missing from a struggling offensive team. Igor Shesterkin gets the nod tonight and—I’ve mentioned this before—throwing out the first period of the first game where he allowed 3 goals on 10 shots against the Isles, he has since put up a .930 Save% and 2.01 GAA (those are top 5 numbers). Claud Julien has vastly improved the Blueshirts as a cohesive defensive unit both at 5x5—where they rank #7 and the PK—where they rank #5 in the league. They allow the fourth fewest scoring chances and high-danger chances against in the league. The Flyers are right there as well allowing the #3 fewest and #7 fewest respectively. This Philly team has also fired the fewest shots on goal in the league. Betters backing the under the posted totals for Rangers game have lost only 4x in 16 contests this season or 25%. We’re also getting Brian Elliot in net for Philly tonight and he has been very good only allowing 11 goals in 6 appearances for a .928 Save% and 2.25 GAA.
COL -179 Let’s talk goaltending; Grubauer has been confirmed and he’s been a stud this year with a .932 Save% and 1.78 GAA. Kahkonen is confirmed with a .915 Save% and 2.41 GAA. His stats aren’t great AND they’re propped up by three starts against pop-gun offense Anaheim. Colorado got to him for 5 goals in their last match-up. Neither team generates a lot of SOG but I’ll go with the better goaltending and Grubauer has only allowed 2 goals on 48 SOG against Minnesota in 2 match-ups this year.
MIN TT U2.5 -135
ANA TT U2.5 -135 The Ducks have only scored above the posted total 5x in 19 games this season which means betters backing the under have only lost at a 26% clip (waves hand from last game).
LAK/STL O5.5 +110
LAK TT O2.5 -120 The Kings have scored over the posted total in 7-straight. They’ve scored 26 goals in that span (3.71)
NYR/PHL U5.5 -110 No Panarin, Kakko or Chytil again for the Rangers. That’s a lot of potential offense missing from a struggling offensive team. Igor Shesterkin gets the nod tonight and—I’ve mentioned this before—throwing out the first period of the first game where he allowed 3 goals on 10 shots against the Isles, he has since put up a .930 Save% and 2.01 GAA (those are top 5 numbers). Claud Julien has vastly improved the Blueshirts as a cohesive defensive unit both at 5x5—where they rank #7 and the PK—where they rank #5 in the league. They allow the fourth fewest scoring chances and high-danger chances against in the league. The Flyers are right there as well allowing the #3 fewest and #7 fewest respectively. This Philly team has also fired the fewest shots on goal in the league. Betters backing the under the posted totals for Rangers game have lost only 4x in 16 contests this season or 25%. We’re also getting Brian Elliot in net for Philly tonight and he has been very good only allowing 11 goals in 6 appearances for a .928 Save% and 2.25 GAA.
COL -179 Let’s talk goaltending; Grubauer has been confirmed and he’s been a stud this year with a .932 Save% and 1.78 GAA. Kahkonen is confirmed with a .915 Save% and 2.41 GAA. His stats aren’t great AND they’re propped up by three starts against pop-gun offense Anaheim. Colorado got to him for 5 goals in their last match-up. Neither team generates a lot of SOG but I’ll go with the better goaltending and Grubauer has only allowed 2 goals on 48 SOG against Minnesota in 2 match-ups this year.
MIN TT U2.5 -135
ANA TT U2.5 -135 The Ducks have only scored above the posted total 5x in 19 games this season which means betters backing the under have only lost at a 26% clip (waves hand from last game).
LAK/STL O5.5 +110
LAK TT O2.5 -120 The Kings have scored over the posted total in 7-straight. They’ve scored 26 goals in that span (3.71)
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