NYG +1.5
St. Louis -2.5
Seattle -6.5
Carolina +2.5
New England -5.5
Write ups to follow later this afternoon
New York Giants +1.5
I see this being a low scoring game that the Giants win. I think quarterbacks struggle (by their standards) to get the pass game going. Both teams are very similar on offense and both are reliant on two very good receivers to get the pass game going. However, the numbers show us the Falcons are 7th in the league in defending number 1 WRs and 3rd defending number 2 WRs. On the opposite side, the Giants are 20th against number 1 WRs, but are a strong 2nd against number 2 WRs (White) and 3rd against TEs (Gonzalez). This might imply that Matt Ryan will rely on Julio Jones to move the chains, however Ryan and Jones haven't been on the same page for the last few weeks.
So, why do I like the Giants? For one, Matt Ryan has been struggling with turnovers recently and is going against a playmaking secondary that has already forced 20 interceptions on the year. I see the Giants winning the turnover battle in this one.
Also, since I think both pass games will be relatively neutralized that makes me go with the team with the better running game. The Giants won't miss Bradshaw much as Wilson is just as talented a runner. Combine this with the Giants being the 2nd best run blocking line (4.50 adjusted line yards) against a Falcon D that allows 4.52 yards a pop to opposing running backs.
I see the Falcons being too stubborn to establish the run when they are on offense. The past 2 weeks they have played the Saints and Panthers, both who can be run on (as can the Giants), however the insist on letting Matty Ice drop back early and often. The Falcons again, won't take advantage of a favorable rushing matchup, allowing the potent Giants front 4 to pin their ears back and rush the passer.
Overall, I see the Giants winning the turnover battle and establishing the run behind the best offensive line in football (2nd in run blocking, 1st in pass protection) in what should be a sneaky low scoring game. The Giants out-physical the finesse Falcons and gut out a victory in a 20-16 type of game.
New York Giants +1.5
I see this being a low scoring game that the Giants win. I think quarterbacks struggle (by their standards) to get the pass game going. Both teams are very similar on offense and both are reliant on two very good receivers to get the pass game going. However, the numbers show us the Falcons are 7th in the league in defending number 1 WRs and 3rd defending number 2 WRs. On the opposite side, the Giants are 20th against number 1 WRs, but are a strong 2nd against number 2 WRs (White) and 3rd against TEs (Gonzalez). This might imply that Matt Ryan will rely on Julio Jones to move the chains, however Ryan and Jones haven't been on the same page for the last few weeks.
So, why do I like the Giants? For one, Matt Ryan has been struggling with turnovers recently and is going against a playmaking secondary that has already forced 20 interceptions on the year. I see the Giants winning the turnover battle in this one.
Also, since I think both pass games will be relatively neutralized that makes me go with the team with the better running game. The Giants won't miss Bradshaw much as Wilson is just as talented a runner. Combine this with the Giants being the 2nd best run blocking line (4.50 adjusted line yards) against a Falcon D that allows 4.52 yards a pop to opposing running backs.
I see the Falcons being too stubborn to establish the run when they are on offense. The past 2 weeks they have played the Saints and Panthers, both who can be run on (as can the Giants), however the insist on letting Matty Ice drop back early and often. The Falcons again, won't take advantage of a favorable rushing matchup, allowing the potent Giants front 4 to pin their ears back and rush the passer.
Overall, I see the Giants winning the turnover battle and establishing the run behind the best offensive line in football (2nd in run blocking, 1st in pass protection) in what should be a sneaky low scoring game. The Giants out-physical the finesse Falcons and gut out a victory in a 20-16 type of game.
St. Louis Rams -2.5
I have seen a lot of people on here are on the Vikings this weekend, however I am on the other side here. First off, let's estabish that the Rams are very good at home and the Vikings are very not good on the road.
When we examine these teams we obviously see that the Vikings are very reliant on Adrian Peterson and the running game. The Rams have been very good against the run this year allowing only 3.77 opposing running backs yards per carry and have the 2nd ranked front 7 against the run (3.57 adjusted line yards). Now, I'm not saying they will shut down Adrian Peterson, but I feel they should be able to contain him fairly well and prevent him from ripping off big gains like he has in recent weeks against the Bears and Packers, who are both poor 2nd level and open field tackling teams, unlike the Rams.
With Adrian Peterson being held in check (again, by his standards) this is going to put a lot of responsibility on the inept Christian Ponder. Ponder has been lost ever since the loss of his security blanket Percy Harvin. If the Viking are put in passing situations the secondary of Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins is sneaky good, as is their 6th rated pass rush that records sacks on 7.2% of dropbacks. If the Rams can keep AP from absolutely running wild on them, it should be a long day for the Vikings offense.
On the other side, the Vikings are good against the run, but don't really do anything else very well. They have both the 26th ranked pass rush and pass defense. Sam Bradford should have time to sit back and find holes in the leaky Vikings secondary, especially if he get his own security blanket, Danny Amendola, back in the lineup. Greg the Leg is also a huge advantage in a game where points should be at a premium. I see the Rams winning a 24-10 type of game.
St. Louis Rams -2.5
I have seen a lot of people on here are on the Vikings this weekend, however I am on the other side here. First off, let's estabish that the Rams are very good at home and the Vikings are very not good on the road.
When we examine these teams we obviously see that the Vikings are very reliant on Adrian Peterson and the running game. The Rams have been very good against the run this year allowing only 3.77 opposing running backs yards per carry and have the 2nd ranked front 7 against the run (3.57 adjusted line yards). Now, I'm not saying they will shut down Adrian Peterson, but I feel they should be able to contain him fairly well and prevent him from ripping off big gains like he has in recent weeks against the Bears and Packers, who are both poor 2nd level and open field tackling teams, unlike the Rams.
With Adrian Peterson being held in check (again, by his standards) this is going to put a lot of responsibility on the inept Christian Ponder. Ponder has been lost ever since the loss of his security blanket Percy Harvin. If the Viking are put in passing situations the secondary of Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins is sneaky good, as is their 6th rated pass rush that records sacks on 7.2% of dropbacks. If the Rams can keep AP from absolutely running wild on them, it should be a long day for the Vikings offense.
On the other side, the Vikings are good against the run, but don't really do anything else very well. They have both the 26th ranked pass rush and pass defense. Sam Bradford should have time to sit back and find holes in the leaky Vikings secondary, especially if he get his own security blanket, Danny Amendola, back in the lineup. Greg the Leg is also a huge advantage in a game where points should be at a premium. I see the Rams winning a 24-10 type of game.
Seattle -6.5
No big statistical mismatch in this one, however I will continue to fade the Bills since the injury of Eric Wood, their starting center. Wood is one of the better centers in the league and any time a team loses it's center, especially one of Wood's caliber, it spells trouble for their offense. I'm not crazy about Seattle giving so many points on the road (even though it isn't a true home game for the Bills), but I have to pick them because of this injury. Seattle is a very physical team and although they aren't great against the run (4.36 ypc) I think they will be able to destroy the "hub", or interior of the Bills O-line, which spells trouble for any offense. With defenders blowing up the interior of their O-line it is hard to establish a run game, even with a talented back like C.J. Spiller. This will probably also inevitably lead to a few patented Fitzpatrick back foot throws and a pick 6 is definitely possible. The Seahawks offense does just enough against a respectable Bills D to win a 24 to 13 ballgame.
Seattle -6.5
No big statistical mismatch in this one, however I will continue to fade the Bills since the injury of Eric Wood, their starting center. Wood is one of the better centers in the league and any time a team loses it's center, especially one of Wood's caliber, it spells trouble for their offense. I'm not crazy about Seattle giving so many points on the road (even though it isn't a true home game for the Bills), but I have to pick them because of this injury. Seattle is a very physical team and although they aren't great against the run (4.36 ypc) I think they will be able to destroy the "hub", or interior of the Bills O-line, which spells trouble for any offense. With defenders blowing up the interior of their O-line it is hard to establish a run game, even with a talented back like C.J. Spiller. This will probably also inevitably lead to a few patented Fitzpatrick back foot throws and a pick 6 is definitely possible. The Seahawks offense does just enough against a respectable Bills D to win a 24 to 13 ballgame.
Good write up on St Louis v Minn. I like the Rams as well. Though I'm in the minority most likely, I think the Rams will make some noise in their last 3 games of the season. They've pieced together 3 in a raw and last week's win on the road against Buffalo suggests they are more versatile (playing outside the confines of a dome) than many beleive.
I like Fisher as a coach and think that he will have his team ready in a very noisy home game with the Ram's playoff chances hanging in the balance.
Like Rams ALOT.
Good write up on St Louis v Minn. I like the Rams as well. Though I'm in the minority most likely, I think the Rams will make some noise in their last 3 games of the season. They've pieced together 3 in a raw and last week's win on the road against Buffalo suggests they are more versatile (playing outside the confines of a dome) than many beleive.
I like Fisher as a coach and think that he will have his team ready in a very noisy home game with the Ram's playoff chances hanging in the balance.
Like Rams ALOT.
Carolina Panthers +2.5
The big story of this game should be Philip Rivers under pressure, which spells disaster for the Chargers. The Panthers tandem of Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson has quietly turned into one of the better duos in the league and rank as the 5th best pash rush recording sacks on 7.3% of dropsbacks. The Chargers O-line also ranks 25th in pass protection surrenduring sacks on 7.8% of dropbacks. The Panthers can be run on (4.63 running back yards), but let's be honest Ryan Mathews isn't going to run wild on any defense. The Chargers lack of commitment to the run should give Hardy and Johnson plenty of opportunities to get up in Rivers face and put pressure on an already turnover prone QB.
On the other side, the only thing the Chargers D does well is defend the run (3.91 running back yards), however the Panthers aren't reliant on traditional run plays to move the football. The Panthers running backs are only averaging about 18 carries combined per game, with a large portion of the teams rushing attempts going to Cam Newton. This means the Chargers won't have many opportunities to line up and stuff the run Newton has been hot lately and the 18th ranked pass D shouldn't provide too much resistance. I see the Panthers getting an early lead and never looking back in this one. Panthers win 31 to 20.
Carolina Panthers +2.5
The big story of this game should be Philip Rivers under pressure, which spells disaster for the Chargers. The Panthers tandem of Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson has quietly turned into one of the better duos in the league and rank as the 5th best pash rush recording sacks on 7.3% of dropsbacks. The Chargers O-line also ranks 25th in pass protection surrenduring sacks on 7.8% of dropbacks. The Panthers can be run on (4.63 running back yards), but let's be honest Ryan Mathews isn't going to run wild on any defense. The Chargers lack of commitment to the run should give Hardy and Johnson plenty of opportunities to get up in Rivers face and put pressure on an already turnover prone QB.
On the other side, the only thing the Chargers D does well is defend the run (3.91 running back yards), however the Panthers aren't reliant on traditional run plays to move the football. The Panthers running backs are only averaging about 18 carries combined per game, with a large portion of the teams rushing attempts going to Cam Newton. This means the Chargers won't have many opportunities to line up and stuff the run Newton has been hot lately and the 18th ranked pass D shouldn't provide too much resistance. I see the Panthers getting an early lead and never looking back in this one. Panthers win 31 to 20.
I respect how big of a role emotion plays in the games, yet at the same time I feel it is hard to gague a particular teams emotion week in and week out, which is why I rarely play a game purely based on emotion.
BOL Omie
I respect how big of a role emotion plays in the games, yet at the same time I feel it is hard to gague a particular teams emotion week in and week out, which is why I rarely play a game purely based on emotion.
BOL Omie
New England Patriots -5.5
Tom Brady and the Pats are rolling so obviously I am picking them because of their offense right? Wrong. I actually like the Pats this week because of the problems that the Pats D will present the Niners with.
Obviously the Niners are extremely reliant on the run, but the Pats are allowing a very respectable 3.97 opposing RB yards per pop. The Hoodie also showed how effective his D can be last week when the sell out to stop the run, much like they did here. So, if the Pats stop the run like they did last week the game comes down to Colin Kaepernick, who I actually like a lot. The problem is that Harbaugh has still continued to call the offense as if the less physically gifted Alex Smith were in the game. So when the Pats shut down the run, Kaep will be forced to throw to keep up with the Pats. The only problem is the Pats rank 10th best against number 1 WRs and 1st against number 2 WRs. The Pats nickel backs can be taken advantage of though, as they all the most yard in the NFL to "other" WRs. The only problem is the 49ers don't have others WRs. Obviously they have Crabtree, but Manningham may not play and their receiving corps already lacked depth. This means Kaep will likely have to rely on Vernon Davis, who he has struggled to get the ball to, to get the passing game going. Could be a long night for the Niners O.
The Niners are a decent matchup for the Pats O. They won't have to sub much when the Pats run the hurry up because their linebackers can cover. However, the nickel backs for the Niners are just middle of the pack, meaning Brady well continue to hook up with Welker, Hernandez, and maybe Gronk, as he practiced for the first time today. The Niners should be able to contain Brandon Lloyd from the big play, but I think Brady is able to dink and dunk against the Niners suspect nickel backs and overrated pass rush that ranks a pedestrian 17th in the league. The Niners will do a much better job than the Texans, but Brady is going to get his no matter who he plays. 28 to 16 Pats.
New England Patriots -5.5
Tom Brady and the Pats are rolling so obviously I am picking them because of their offense right? Wrong. I actually like the Pats this week because of the problems that the Pats D will present the Niners with.
Obviously the Niners are extremely reliant on the run, but the Pats are allowing a very respectable 3.97 opposing RB yards per pop. The Hoodie also showed how effective his D can be last week when the sell out to stop the run, much like they did here. So, if the Pats stop the run like they did last week the game comes down to Colin Kaepernick, who I actually like a lot. The problem is that Harbaugh has still continued to call the offense as if the less physically gifted Alex Smith were in the game. So when the Pats shut down the run, Kaep will be forced to throw to keep up with the Pats. The only problem is the Pats rank 10th best against number 1 WRs and 1st against number 2 WRs. The Pats nickel backs can be taken advantage of though, as they all the most yard in the NFL to "other" WRs. The only problem is the 49ers don't have others WRs. Obviously they have Crabtree, but Manningham may not play and their receiving corps already lacked depth. This means Kaep will likely have to rely on Vernon Davis, who he has struggled to get the ball to, to get the passing game going. Could be a long night for the Niners O.
The Niners are a decent matchup for the Pats O. They won't have to sub much when the Pats run the hurry up because their linebackers can cover. However, the nickel backs for the Niners are just middle of the pack, meaning Brady well continue to hook up with Welker, Hernandez, and maybe Gronk, as he practiced for the first time today. The Niners should be able to contain Brandon Lloyd from the big play, but I think Brady is able to dink and dunk against the Niners suspect nickel backs and overrated pass rush that ranks a pedestrian 17th in the league. The Niners will do a much better job than the Texans, but Brady is going to get his no matter who he plays. 28 to 16 Pats.
New England Patriots -5.5
Tom Brady and the Pats are rolling so obviously I am picking them because of their offense right? Wrong. I actually like the Pats this week because of the problems that the Pats D will present the Niners with.
Obviously the Niners are extremely reliant on the run, but the Pats are allowing a very respectable 3.97 opposing RB yards per pop. The Hoodie also showed how effective his D can be last week when the sell out to stop the run, much like they did here. So, if the Pats stop the run like they did last week the game comes down to Colin Kaepernick, who I actually like a lot. The problem is that Harbaugh has still continued to call the offense as if the less physically gifted Alex Smith were in the game. So when the Pats shut down the run, Kaep will be forced to throw to keep up with the Pats. The only problem is the Pats rank 10th best against number 1 WRs and 1st against number 2 WRs. The Pats nickel backs can be taken advantage of though, as they all the most yard in the NFL to "other" WRs. The only problem is the 49ers don't have others WRs. Obviously they have Crabtree, but Manningham may not play and their receiving corps already lacked depth. This means Kaep will likely have to rely on Vernon Davis, who he has struggled to get the ball to, to get the passing game going. Could be a long night for the Niners O.
The Niners are a decent matchup for the Pats O. They won't have to sub much when the Pats run the hurry up because their linebackers can cover. However, the nickel backs for the Niners are just middle of the pack, meaning Brady well continue to hook up with Welker, Hernandez, and maybe Gronk, as he practiced for the first time today. The Niners should be able to contain Brandon Lloyd from the big play, but I think Brady is able to dink and dunk against the Niners suspect nickel backs and overrated pass rush that ranks a pedestrian 17th in the league. The Niners will do a much better job than the Texans, but Brady is going to get his no matter who he plays. 28 to 16 Pats.
New England Patriots -5.5
Tom Brady and the Pats are rolling so obviously I am picking them because of their offense right? Wrong. I actually like the Pats this week because of the problems that the Pats D will present the Niners with.
Obviously the Niners are extremely reliant on the run, but the Pats are allowing a very respectable 3.97 opposing RB yards per pop. The Hoodie also showed how effective his D can be last week when the sell out to stop the run, much like they did here. So, if the Pats stop the run like they did last week the game comes down to Colin Kaepernick, who I actually like a lot. The problem is that Harbaugh has still continued to call the offense as if the less physically gifted Alex Smith were in the game. So when the Pats shut down the run, Kaep will be forced to throw to keep up with the Pats. The only problem is the Pats rank 10th best against number 1 WRs and 1st against number 2 WRs. The Pats nickel backs can be taken advantage of though, as they all the most yard in the NFL to "other" WRs. The only problem is the 49ers don't have others WRs. Obviously they have Crabtree, but Manningham may not play and their receiving corps already lacked depth. This means Kaep will likely have to rely on Vernon Davis, who he has struggled to get the ball to, to get the passing game going. Could be a long night for the Niners O.
The Niners are a decent matchup for the Pats O. They won't have to sub much when the Pats run the hurry up because their linebackers can cover. However, the nickel backs for the Niners are just middle of the pack, meaning Brady well continue to hook up with Welker, Hernandez, and maybe Gronk, as he practiced for the first time today. The Niners should be able to contain Brandon Lloyd from the big play, but I think Brady is able to dink and dunk against the Niners suspect nickel backs and overrated pass rush that ranks a pedestrian 17th in the league. The Niners will do a much better job than the Texans, but Brady is going to get his no matter who he plays. 28 to 16 Pats.
Carolina Panthers +2.5
The big story of this game should be Philip Rivers under pressure, which spells disaster for the Chargers. The Panthers tandem of Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson has quietly turned into one of the better duos in the league and rank as the 5th best pash rush recording sacks on 7.3% of dropsbacks. The Chargers O-line also ranks 25th in pass protection surrenduring sacks on 7.8% of dropbacks. The Panthers can be run on (4.63 running back yards), but let's be honest Ryan Mathews isn't going to run wild on any defense. The Chargers lack of commitment to the run should give Hardy and Johnson plenty of opportunities to get up in Rivers face and put pressure on an already turnover prone QB.
On the other side, the only thing the Chargers D does well is defend the run (3.91 running back yards), however the Panthers aren't reliant on traditional run plays to move the football. The Panthers running backs are only averaging about 18 carries combined per game, with a large portion of the teams rushing attempts going to Cam Newton. This means the Chargers won't have many opportunities to line up and stuff the run Newton has been hot lately and the 18th ranked pass D shouldn't provide too much resistance. I see the Panthers getting an early lead and never looking back in this one. Panthers win 31 to 20.
Future "Hall of Famer" Phillip Rivers gonna win this one!
Carolina Panthers +2.5
The big story of this game should be Philip Rivers under pressure, which spells disaster for the Chargers. The Panthers tandem of Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson has quietly turned into one of the better duos in the league and rank as the 5th best pash rush recording sacks on 7.3% of dropsbacks. The Chargers O-line also ranks 25th in pass protection surrenduring sacks on 7.8% of dropbacks. The Panthers can be run on (4.63 running back yards), but let's be honest Ryan Mathews isn't going to run wild on any defense. The Chargers lack of commitment to the run should give Hardy and Johnson plenty of opportunities to get up in Rivers face and put pressure on an already turnover prone QB.
On the other side, the only thing the Chargers D does well is defend the run (3.91 running back yards), however the Panthers aren't reliant on traditional run plays to move the football. The Panthers running backs are only averaging about 18 carries combined per game, with a large portion of the teams rushing attempts going to Cam Newton. This means the Chargers won't have many opportunities to line up and stuff the run Newton has been hot lately and the 18th ranked pass D shouldn't provide too much resistance. I see the Panthers getting an early lead and never looking back in this one. Panthers win 31 to 20.
Future "Hall of Famer" Phillip Rivers gonna win this one!
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