I am highlighting an article by sportinsights featuring the Bet against the Public angle :
Over the years, the NFL point-spread market seems to have gotten more efficient. Years ago, the "smart money" would "take the points" and play underdogs. In this article, we’ll take a look at how NFL underdogs have done over the years.In addition, we’ll study how SportsInsights.com’s strategy of “Betting Against the Public” has added value over the years.Our research is now based on over 2,500 games going back to the 2001 NFL season. Our database includes SIs' exclusive betting percentages going back to the 2003 season.
Here is a table of NFL underdog performance over the past few years.
Table 1: NFL Underdogs vs. Point Spread
2003 - 2007
51.2%
Betting Against the Public in the NFL
Above, we saw that betting on dogs would have resulted in a 51.2% winning percentage over the past few years.If you Bet Against the Public (in the NFL, most of these plays would be on the dog, at the 75% level), you would have hit 55.3% over the same period (see Table 2, below).Results are fairly consistent each year, with Betting Against the Public adding about 4% value per year.
This shows that Betting Against the Public can be beneficial to your handicapping.As you can see, the results can jump around from season to season.This is partly due to the relatively low number of games during the NFL Season.It’s also the nature of any investment:there is both risk AND return.Table 2: Benefit of Betting Against Public (vs. Spread) at 75% Level
I am highlighting an article by sportinsights featuring the Bet against the Public angle :
Over the years, the NFL point-spread market seems to have gotten more efficient. Years ago, the "smart money" would "take the points" and play underdogs. In this article, we’ll take a look at how NFL underdogs have done over the years.In addition, we’ll study how SportsInsights.com’s strategy of “Betting Against the Public” has added value over the years.Our research is now based on over 2,500 games going back to the 2001 NFL season. Our database includes SIs' exclusive betting percentages going back to the 2003 season.
Here is a table of NFL underdog performance over the past few years.
Table 1: NFL Underdogs vs. Point Spread
2003 - 2007
51.2%
Betting Against the Public in the NFL
Above, we saw that betting on dogs would have resulted in a 51.2% winning percentage over the past few years.If you Bet Against the Public (in the NFL, most of these plays would be on the dog, at the 75% level), you would have hit 55.3% over the same period (see Table 2, below).Results are fairly consistent each year, with Betting Against the Public adding about 4% value per year.
This shows that Betting Against the Public can be beneficial to your handicapping.As you can see, the results can jump around from season to season.This is partly due to the relatively low number of games during the NFL Season.It’s also the nature of any investment:there is both risk AND return.Table 2: Benefit of Betting Against Public (vs. Spread) at 75% Level
Roberto: This implies that betting against the public = betting all dogs? It may not occur often, but there are dogs that are public darlings, which would make the fave the play.
Roberto: This implies that betting against the public = betting all dogs? It may not occur often, but there are dogs that are public darlings, which would make the fave the play.
The feature monitors wagering activity at multiple online sportsbooks. The "betting percentages" represent actual wagers placed on each game at the participating sportsbooks.
Home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS(42 % ) over last 5 seasons
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 % ) in week 1 over the past five NFL seasons
Favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 %) during this time.
Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 % ) in week 1 of NFL since 1999.
Home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 % ) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3ATS (41 % ) in NFL Week 1 over the past five seasons.
Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 % ) during this time.
Home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS ( 38 % ) in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
The feature monitors wagering activity at multiple online sportsbooks. The "betting percentages" represent actual wagers placed on each game at the participating sportsbooks.
Home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS(42 % ) over last 5 seasons
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 % ) in week 1 over the past five NFL seasons
Favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 %) during this time.
Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 % ) in week 1 of NFL since 1999.
Home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 % ) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3ATS (41 % ) in NFL Week 1 over the past five seasons.
Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 % ) during this time.
Home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS ( 38 % ) in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 % ) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Pittsburgh - 6.5 ( play on Houston )
New orleans - 3 / 3.5 borderline ( play on Tampa Bay )
********************************************
Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season are 7-14-1 ATS (33 % ) over the past 5 seasons. .
Plays on : Kansas City , Minnesota , Houston , Carolina , Chicago
Home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 % ) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Pittsburgh - 6.5 ( play on Houston )
New orleans - 3 / 3.5 borderline ( play on Tampa Bay )
********************************************
Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season are 7-14-1 ATS (33 % ) over the past 5 seasons. .
Plays on : Kansas City , Minnesota , Houston , Carolina , Chicago
"Home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS(42 % ) over last 5 seasons Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 % ) in week 1 over the past five NFL seasons Favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 %) during this time. Home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 % ) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 % ) during this time. " Very interesting stuff here......from these trends above it looks like the Texans are the play.
"Home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS(42 % ) over last 5 seasons Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 % ) in week 1 over the past five NFL seasons Favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 %) during this time. Home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 % ) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 % ) during this time. " Very interesting stuff here......from these trends above it looks like the Texans are the play.
Unders are 81-73 from 1997-2006 ...and going with covers data in 2007 ...
Unders went 11-5 last year in Week 1....... for a total of
92-78( 54 % ) since 1997
Week 1 Overs between 40-44.5 are 35-21 ( 62.5 % )
On extreme Week 1 Totals (35 or less, 45 or higher), UNDER’s have gone 31-13 for 70.4%
Last year 4-0
2 YEAR TRENDS : Bet over on any total 37 or less, bet under on any total 51 orhigher.
2006-07 record 29-22 57% 2007-08 record 27-17 61%
( For all its worth the only game set > 35 but < 37 last year went Over ...The only line set under 35 went under and the only line set over 51 went under as well )
Based on the Overs run when the total is between 40-44.5 ( 62.5 % ) and the extreme total stat here are the plays :
Dallas-Clev Under
GB-Minn Under
Cinci-Balt Under
Buff-Seattle Under
Jax-Tenn Neutral
NYJets-Miami Neutral
Detroit-Atlanta Over
NE-KC Over
Pitt-Hou Over
NO-TB Over
Phil-Stl Over
SD-Caro Over
Ariz-SF Over
Indi - Chi Over
Den-Oak Over
Last year ( 11-5 Unders ) 8 games were set between 40-44.5 , going 5-3 Unders , leaving the remainder of the totals going 6-2 to the under ...
Unders are 81-73 from 1997-2006 ...and going with covers data in 2007 ...
Unders went 11-5 last year in Week 1....... for a total of
92-78( 54 % ) since 1997
Week 1 Overs between 40-44.5 are 35-21 ( 62.5 % )
On extreme Week 1 Totals (35 or less, 45 or higher), UNDER’s have gone 31-13 for 70.4%
Last year 4-0
2 YEAR TRENDS : Bet over on any total 37 or less, bet under on any total 51 orhigher.
2006-07 record 29-22 57% 2007-08 record 27-17 61%
( For all its worth the only game set > 35 but < 37 last year went Over ...The only line set under 35 went under and the only line set over 51 went under as well )
Based on the Overs run when the total is between 40-44.5 ( 62.5 % ) and the extreme total stat here are the plays :
Dallas-Clev Under
GB-Minn Under
Cinci-Balt Under
Buff-Seattle Under
Jax-Tenn Neutral
NYJets-Miami Neutral
Detroit-Atlanta Over
NE-KC Over
Pitt-Hou Over
NO-TB Over
Phil-Stl Over
SD-Caro Over
Ariz-SF Over
Indi - Chi Over
Den-Oak Over
Last year ( 11-5 Unders ) 8 games were set between 40-44.5 , going 5-3 Unders , leaving the remainder of the totals going 6-2 to the under ...
some damn good info here. from what im reading, the trends seem to be favorable to a few teams.
Bills Tampa Bay Minnesota Cleveland
Possibly - Houston, KC, Arizona (although I like SF better), and Atlanta (although I like Detroit better)
Non of these teams are that great, but I think the trends show that mediocre teams tend to do well to start the season (then probably fade down the stretch and miss playoffs)
some damn good info here. from what im reading, the trends seem to be favorable to a few teams.
Bills Tampa Bay Minnesota Cleveland
Possibly - Houston, KC, Arizona (although I like SF better), and Atlanta (although I like Detroit better)
Non of these teams are that great, but I think the trends show that mediocre teams tend to do well to start the season (then probably fade down the stretch and miss playoffs)
Super Bowl loser has gone 3-11 ATS last 12 openers
NE is 0-8 ATS when favored by 11 or more points
KC is 6-0 ATS when a dog of more than 10 points
Carolina is 22-5 ATS as an underdog when Delhomme is its quarterback.
The Chargers were 14-5 ATS last season, including 8-1 at home, including playoffs. …
San Diego has covered its last nine, and 13 of its previous 15, games, including playoffs, and is 23-9-1ATS in its last 33 regular-season home games. … The Chargers have covered their last 12 games as a favorite of between 7.5 and 10 points and have covered eight of their last 10 season-opening games. Titan QB Vince Young is 10-2 ATS as a starter against division foes. TEN is 10-2 ATS L12 games vs. AFC South...
Super Bowl loser has gone 3-11 ATS last 12 openers
NE is 0-8 ATS when favored by 11 or more points
KC is 6-0 ATS when a dog of more than 10 points
Carolina is 22-5 ATS as an underdog when Delhomme is its quarterback.
The Chargers were 14-5 ATS last season, including 8-1 at home, including playoffs. …
San Diego has covered its last nine, and 13 of its previous 15, games, including playoffs, and is 23-9-1ATS in its last 33 regular-season home games. … The Chargers have covered their last 12 games as a favorite of between 7.5 and 10 points and have covered eight of their last 10 season-opening games. Titan QB Vince Young is 10-2 ATS as a starter against division foes. TEN is 10-2 ATS L12 games vs. AFC South...
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