Actually, if you check box scores (home for Indi and away for Texans) you'll see that Houston has allowed 13 more points in the first half than they've scored. And that Indi has scored 27 more points than they've allowed. That doesn't sound too good for a Texan 1st half money line to me. I have Colts in the first half at 13 to 14 points and Texans at 6 to 7.
These teams, home and away only, have combined to score 51 total points in the first halves of games, hence your line of 25.5 seems to make sense. BUT...those numbers were for first halves of 4 games. Making allowances for points scored, the first half should be about 21 to 24 total. Why not wait for the first half to be a "little" lower scoring than they project, then take the 2nd half over?
Now, at home in the second half, Colts outscore opponents 27 to 20. But if you look at Houston, THEY outscore opponents on the road 37-17 in the 2nd halves so far this season. I'd be a lot more inclined to take the Texans ML in the second half. Overall IMO, second half is not much better than a toss-up. Tough to put money (for me) on something I can't justify with numbers that don't add up...especially if the Colts lead at the half.
I do agree with you on Indi ML but the price is pretty high. Why not just buy the points down to Indi -2.5 and save the additional -145 in juice?
Also, I'm not sold yet on the over. I'm very aware that the Texans have the rock-bottom pass defense in the league. And that would seem to make a great case for just giving the points with no ML involved for the game. But with a week to prepare (both ways) it looks to me like the oddsmakers set the team total for Indi lower than it should be if this game is going over. Only 28 for Indi...at home...on Monday night...with Peyton tossing for over 320 ypg? That seems to point to a possible "under" in the game if Indi plays any sort of pass defense. Also, Houston is is love with Arian and their running game lately. They may well employ the tactic of "keep Manning off the field". I have a funny feeling about the under, especially with the public "supposedly" being all over it and the line not jumping into space.
I actually have the game total more like 24-17 Indi winning. 28-20 highest. But my opinions aren't always the best so I wish you all the luck if you play it the way you posted. (and By the way, I like Houston in the third quarter...a lot).
Actually, if you check box scores (home for Indi and away for Texans) you'll see that Houston has allowed 13 more points in the first half than they've scored. And that Indi has scored 27 more points than they've allowed. That doesn't sound too good for a Texan 1st half money line to me. I have Colts in the first half at 13 to 14 points and Texans at 6 to 7.
These teams, home and away only, have combined to score 51 total points in the first halves of games, hence your line of 25.5 seems to make sense. BUT...those numbers were for first halves of 4 games. Making allowances for points scored, the first half should be about 21 to 24 total. Why not wait for the first half to be a "little" lower scoring than they project, then take the 2nd half over?
Now, at home in the second half, Colts outscore opponents 27 to 20. But if you look at Houston, THEY outscore opponents on the road 37-17 in the 2nd halves so far this season. I'd be a lot more inclined to take the Texans ML in the second half. Overall IMO, second half is not much better than a toss-up. Tough to put money (for me) on something I can't justify with numbers that don't add up...especially if the Colts lead at the half.
I do agree with you on Indi ML but the price is pretty high. Why not just buy the points down to Indi -2.5 and save the additional -145 in juice?
Also, I'm not sold yet on the over. I'm very aware that the Texans have the rock-bottom pass defense in the league. And that would seem to make a great case for just giving the points with no ML involved for the game. But with a week to prepare (both ways) it looks to me like the oddsmakers set the team total for Indi lower than it should be if this game is going over. Only 28 for Indi...at home...on Monday night...with Peyton tossing for over 320 ypg? That seems to point to a possible "under" in the game if Indi plays any sort of pass defense. Also, Houston is is love with Arian and their running game lately. They may well employ the tactic of "keep Manning off the field". I have a funny feeling about the under, especially with the public "supposedly" being all over it and the line not jumping into space.
I actually have the game total more like 24-17 Indi winning. 28-20 highest. But my opinions aren't always the best so I wish you all the luck if you play it the way you posted. (and By the way, I like Houston in the third quarter...a lot).
Actually, if you check box scores (home for Indi and away for Texans) you'll see that Houston has allowed 13 more points in the first half than they've scored. And that Indi has scored 27 more points than they've allowed. That doesn't sound too good for a Texan 1st half money line to me. I have Colts in the first half at 13 to 14 points and Texans at 6 to 7.
These teams, home and away only, have combined to score 51 total points in the first halves of games, hence your line of 25.5 seems to make sense. BUT...those numbers were for first halves of 4 games. Making allowances for points scored, the first half should be about 21 to 24 total. Why not wait for the first half to be a "little" lower scoring than they project, then take the 2nd half over?
Now, at home in the second half, Colts outscore opponents 27 to 20. But if you look at Houston, THEY outscore opponents on the road 37-17 in the 2nd halves so far this season. I'd be a lot more inclined to take the Texans ML in the second half. Overall IMO, second half is not much better than a toss-up. Tough to put money (for me) on something I can't justify with numbers that don't add up...especially if the Colts lead at the half.
I do agree with you on Indi ML but the price is pretty high. Why not just buy the points down to Indi -2.5 and save the additional -145 in juice?
Also, I'm not sold yet on the over. I'm very aware that the Texans have the rock-bottom pass defense in the league. And that would seem to make a great case for just giving the points with no ML involved for the game. But with a week to prepare (both ways) it looks to me like the oddsmakers set the team total for Indi lower than it should be if this game is going over. Only 28 for Indi...at home...on Monday night...with Peyton tossing for over 320 ypg? That seems to point to a possible "under" in the game if Indi plays any sort of pass defense. Also, Houston is is love with Arian and their running game lately. They may well employ the tactic of "keep Manning off the field". I have a funny feeling about the under, especially with the public "supposedly" being all over it and the line not jumping into space.
I actually have the game total more like 24-17 Indi winning. 28-20 highest. But my opinions aren't always the best so I wish you all the luck if you play it the way you posted. (and By the way, I like Houston in the third quarter...a lot).
Actually, if you check box scores (home for Indi and away for Texans) you'll see that Houston has allowed 13 more points in the first half than they've scored. And that Indi has scored 27 more points than they've allowed. That doesn't sound too good for a Texan 1st half money line to me. I have Colts in the first half at 13 to 14 points and Texans at 6 to 7.
These teams, home and away only, have combined to score 51 total points in the first halves of games, hence your line of 25.5 seems to make sense. BUT...those numbers were for first halves of 4 games. Making allowances for points scored, the first half should be about 21 to 24 total. Why not wait for the first half to be a "little" lower scoring than they project, then take the 2nd half over?
Now, at home in the second half, Colts outscore opponents 27 to 20. But if you look at Houston, THEY outscore opponents on the road 37-17 in the 2nd halves so far this season. I'd be a lot more inclined to take the Texans ML in the second half. Overall IMO, second half is not much better than a toss-up. Tough to put money (for me) on something I can't justify with numbers that don't add up...especially if the Colts lead at the half.
I do agree with you on Indi ML but the price is pretty high. Why not just buy the points down to Indi -2.5 and save the additional -145 in juice?
Also, I'm not sold yet on the over. I'm very aware that the Texans have the rock-bottom pass defense in the league. And that would seem to make a great case for just giving the points with no ML involved for the game. But with a week to prepare (both ways) it looks to me like the oddsmakers set the team total for Indi lower than it should be if this game is going over. Only 28 for Indi...at home...on Monday night...with Peyton tossing for over 320 ypg? That seems to point to a possible "under" in the game if Indi plays any sort of pass defense. Also, Houston is is love with Arian and their running game lately. They may well employ the tactic of "keep Manning off the field". I have a funny feeling about the under, especially with the public "supposedly" being all over it and the line not jumping into space.
I actually have the game total more like 24-17 Indi winning. 28-20 highest. But my opinions aren't always the best so I wish you all the luck if you play it the way you posted. (and By the way, I like Houston in the third quarter...a lot).
Actually, if you check box scores (home for Indi and away for Texans) you'll see that Houston has allowed 13 more points in the first half than they've scored. And that Indi has scored 27 more points than they've allowed. That doesn't sound too good for a Texan 1st half money line to me. I have Colts in the first half at 13 to 14 points and Texans at 6 to 7.
These teams, home and away only, have combined to score 51 total points in the first halves of games, hence your line of 25.5 seems to make sense. BUT...those numbers were for first halves of 4 games. Making allowances for points scored, the first half should be about 21 to 24 total. Why not wait for the first half to be a "little" lower scoring than they project, then take the 2nd half over?
Now, at home in the second half, Colts outscore opponents 27 to 20. But if you look at Houston, THEY outscore opponents on the road 37-17 in the 2nd halves so far this season. I'd be a lot more inclined to take the Texans ML in the second half. Overall IMO, second half is not much better than a toss-up. Tough to put money (for me) on something I can't justify with numbers that don't add up...especially if the Colts lead at the half.
I do agree with you on Indi ML but the price is pretty high. Why not just buy the points down to Indi -2.5 and save the additional -145 in juice?
Also, I'm not sold yet on the over. I'm very aware that the Texans have the rock-bottom pass defense in the league. And that would seem to make a great case for just giving the points with no ML involved for the game. But with a week to prepare (both ways) it looks to me like the oddsmakers set the team total for Indi lower than it should be if this game is going over. Only 28 for Indi...at home...on Monday night...with Peyton tossing for over 320 ypg? That seems to point to a possible "under" in the game if Indi plays any sort of pass defense. Also, Houston is is love with Arian and their running game lately. They may well employ the tactic of "keep Manning off the field". I have a funny feeling about the under, especially with the public "supposedly" being all over it and the line not jumping into space.
I actually have the game total more like 24-17 Indi winning. 28-20 highest. But my opinions aren't always the best so I wish you all the luck if you play it the way you posted. (and By the way, I like Houston in the third quarter...a lot).
To simplify things,
Texans are 1-5 ats in the 1st half and 4-2 in the 2nd half. Texans are 0-2 ats in the 1st half on the road and 2-0 2nd half.
The over in Texans game is 3-3 in the 1st half and 5-1 in the 2nd half. The over on the road is 2-0 in the 1st half and 2-0 in the 2nd half
Actually, if you check box scores (home for Indi and away for Texans) you'll see that Houston has allowed 13 more points in the first half than they've scored. And that Indi has scored 27 more points than they've allowed. That doesn't sound too good for a Texan 1st half money line to me. I have Colts in the first half at 13 to 14 points and Texans at 6 to 7.
These teams, home and away only, have combined to score 51 total points in the first halves of games, hence your line of 25.5 seems to make sense. BUT...those numbers were for first halves of 4 games. Making allowances for points scored, the first half should be about 21 to 24 total. Why not wait for the first half to be a "little" lower scoring than they project, then take the 2nd half over?
Now, at home in the second half, Colts outscore opponents 27 to 20. But if you look at Houston, THEY outscore opponents on the road 37-17 in the 2nd halves so far this season. I'd be a lot more inclined to take the Texans ML in the second half. Overall IMO, second half is not much better than a toss-up. Tough to put money (for me) on something I can't justify with numbers that don't add up...especially if the Colts lead at the half.
I do agree with you on Indi ML but the price is pretty high. Why not just buy the points down to Indi -2.5 and save the additional -145 in juice?
Also, I'm not sold yet on the over. I'm very aware that the Texans have the rock-bottom pass defense in the league. And that would seem to make a great case for just giving the points with no ML involved for the game. But with a week to prepare (both ways) it looks to me like the oddsmakers set the team total for Indi lower than it should be if this game is going over. Only 28 for Indi...at home...on Monday night...with Peyton tossing for over 320 ypg? That seems to point to a possible "under" in the game if Indi plays any sort of pass defense. Also, Houston is is love with Arian and their running game lately. They may well employ the tactic of "keep Manning off the field". I have a funny feeling about the under, especially with the public "supposedly" being all over it and the line not jumping into space.
I actually have the game total more like 24-17 Indi winning. 28-20 highest. But my opinions aren't always the best so I wish you all the luck if you play it the way you posted. (and By the way, I like Houston in the third quarter...a lot).
To simplify things,
Texans are 1-5 ats in the 1st half and 4-2 in the 2nd half. Texans are 0-2 ats in the 1st half on the road and 2-0 2nd half.
The over in Texans game is 3-3 in the 1st half and 5-1 in the 2nd half. The over on the road is 2-0 in the 1st half and 2-0 in the 2nd half
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