4 years I believe has gone by since my last post. I never held much of a long term win % so take it with a grain of salt. I've studied point spreads since 1971 and you'd think I maybe should've learned something, somewhere, sometime. ??
Ten +8.0 110/100
Highest public % of the weekend is on KC and I like to go against the general public quite often, but not as a rule. In The WC round public is 50/50 with their highest % pick doing well the past 2 years in the first two rounds and that is a hard trend for the public to keep up.
Ten / KC over 44.5 110/100
Again Public likes the Under. Public has liked Under 9 times since 2010 in the playoffs, getting only 3 correct.
Rams -5.5 110/100
Public is 52% on Atlanta and when they're nearly split on a playoff Dog, the outcome is generally the Fav 8 out of 12 when line is 5.5+ points .
Dogs that won: 2013 Bal. +8 at NE / 2015 GB +8.5 at Sea / 2012 NYG +8 at GB / 2015 Dall. +5.5 at GB. Note that 3 times it was GB & once NE ... Two premier teams for the betting public usually to be on, but they went against the Favs in those years with bigger points and cashed.
Dogs that lost: 2014 NO +9.5 at Sea / 2017 GB +6 at ATL / 2010 Az +7 at NO / 2015 Az +5.5 at Car. / 2011 Sea +10 at Chi / 2014 Ind + 7.5 at NE / 2013 Ind + 7.5 at Bal / 2017 Det +8.5 at Sea .
Jax -8.5 110/100
When Public is barely on a playoff Fav as this is running 54% they've been right 12 of 15 games and only losing 1X at 54% or less and that was 2010 Super bowl Ind -4.5 Vs NO. So the Public is a perfect 10-0 @54% or less in playoff games that aren't a SB. Fav's covered -6.0, -13.5, -6.0, -14.0, -7.0, so certainly some larger spreads.
Jax & Buf. over 39.5
Iguanas are falling out of the trees in Florida because it's so cold yet public is in the low 60% range with the over. For playoff totals less than 40 points since 2010 there's been 7 overs and 2 unders & another over at exactly 40.0.
2016 KC at Hou 30-0 Under 39.5. And the high wind bitter cold game 2012 Hou at Bal 13-20 under 37.0. It is very hard to keep the scoring down & those two actually had a chance to go over, but didn't make it.
My five out of the bag. The ball is shaped oddly, the Refs can throw a flag & injuries change things. Thus the x-factor is so large in the NFL it really doesn't matter what criteria you use, you have to be lucky. Although I like to apply someyhing that could be termed logic.