Just pick the winning team. Stats show that teams that win cover over 80% of the time. Of course picking the winning team is the hard part as this is the NFL, where the unexpected happens.
Just pick the winning team. Stats show that teams that win cover over 80% of the time. Of course picking the winning team is the hard part as this is the NFL, where the unexpected happens.
yes lines move to mess with our heads, but its the books talkin to us imo.
they are great indicators that help me get an idea of what the books are thinking. kids do get paranoid over it, i used to but not anymore...i just look at open and closing line, try to get a read or lay off. all the movement in between is just to balance money and yes cause us to pick the loser.
for me i always wait until closing line, will never put a bet in early
yes lines move to mess with our heads, but its the books talkin to us imo.
they are great indicators that help me get an idea of what the books are thinking. kids do get paranoid over it, i used to but not anymore...i just look at open and closing line, try to get a read or lay off. all the movement in between is just to balance money and yes cause us to pick the loser.
for me i always wait until closing line, will never put a bet in early
You are right.......it means nothing unless you have the skill/knowledge to understand the line movement and use it to your advantage. If you can't do that then line movement means nothing.
You are right.......it means nothing unless you have the skill/knowledge to understand the line movement and use it to your advantage. If you can't do that then line movement means nothing.
with all due respect I think this view is way too simplistic ...especially as it relates to the statement about being on the same side of the books
with all due respect I think this view is way too simplistic ...especially as it relates to the statement about being on the same side of the books
Depends when in the week the line moves...it can actually be very helpful in picking the right side. If the lines for NCAA football come out say Sunday night for the upcoming saturday, if a spread moves more than a point or two on Monday, sharps are on it and it likely is the good side to be on.
Your right when it comes to line movements later in the week- from square bettors and casual bettors who don't see the spreads until the day of or maybe day before the games.
Also I know that sharps can inflate a line by pounding a team early in the week and then letting the public futher inflate the line so they (the sharps) can then hedge their bet and try to hit the middle by betting the other side.
Basically your wrong in that line movements mean nothing, but your right that people do blow their significance out of proportion.
Depends when in the week the line moves...it can actually be very helpful in picking the right side. If the lines for NCAA football come out say Sunday night for the upcoming saturday, if a spread moves more than a point or two on Monday, sharps are on it and it likely is the good side to be on.
Your right when it comes to line movements later in the week- from square bettors and casual bettors who don't see the spreads until the day of or maybe day before the games.
Also I know that sharps can inflate a line by pounding a team early in the week and then letting the public futher inflate the line so they (the sharps) can then hedge their bet and try to hit the middle by betting the other side.
Basically your wrong in that line movements mean nothing, but your right that people do blow their significance out of proportion.
Patriots aren't even the favorite...before trying to make a point...albeit a stupid one....at least have your facts right or you just turn out looking like more of a tool
Patriots aren't even the favorite...before trying to make a point...albeit a stupid one....at least have your facts right or you just turn out looking like more of a tool
You are right.......it means nothing unless you have the skill/knowledge to understand the line movement and use it to your advantage. If you can't do that then line movement means nothing.
Exactly !!!
You are right.......it means nothing unless you have the skill/knowledge to understand the line movement and use it to your advantage. If you can't do that then line movement means nothing.
Exactly !!!
with all due respect I think this view is way too simplistic ...especially as it relates to the statement about being on the same side of the books
Exactly !!! The public or sharps can and often do have many strong moments over the coarse of the season.
I've tracked line movements for years, this season in the NFL the larger line movements have posted a very nice winning record of 43-32 ATS.
with all due respect I think this view is way too simplistic ...especially as it relates to the statement about being on the same side of the books
Exactly !!! The public or sharps can and often do have many strong moments over the coarse of the season.
I've tracked line movements for years, this season in the NFL the larger line movements have posted a very nice winning record of 43-32 ATS.
Right on regarding the line movement. It would be one heck of an experience to spend an afternoon with a bookmaker - watching what, who, and when triggers the line movement. Good thread. Wouldn't call myself knowledgeable...more learned the hard way...or more appropriatley, learning the hard way.
Right on regarding the line movement. It would be one heck of an experience to spend an afternoon with a bookmaker - watching what, who, and when triggers the line movement. Good thread. Wouldn't call myself knowledgeable...more learned the hard way...or more appropriatley, learning the hard way.
Ah, but line movement is very important, if you do understand it, just betting to bet without a good undertanding, you may as well give your money to charity.
Good Luck
Ah, but line movement is very important, if you do understand it, just betting to bet without a good undertanding, you may as well give your money to charity.
Good Luck
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