GREEN BAY AT JACKSONVILLE:
Not much interest here. It's hard to bet on either team with confidence right now. Green Bay has dropped three straight against the spread in unimpressive fashion. Jacksonville hasn't put up much fight in a while. Some of the teaser guys are looking at moving Jacksonville from +2.5 up to +8.5 because it crosses the 3 and the 7. That approach hasn't quite been the home run this year it's been in the past. Part of that is that the offshore books in particular have guarded against leaving games in the strike zone. Can only see the sharps getting involved in this game if there's late injury information, or if the public takes a side and they want to go the other way.
DETROIT AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Big ugly underdogs have stopped covering, so there's less enthusiasm about them now than there was a few weeks ago. Sharps won't lay 17 points in an NFL game...so it's the dog or nothing here. Some are waiting to see if the public drives the line higher over the weekend. Better to take +17.5 than +17 obviously. If not, I expect many sharps to come in late at +17. They just can't resist this type of investment.
WASHINGTON AT CINCINNATI:
We're going in rotation order, so we have to start with the games that aren't getting much action! I'm sensing more passion for Cincinnati than for Detroit or anyone in the Green Bay/Jacksonville game. Sharps are hoping for a hook though, rather than just taking the Bengals +7. The public could hit the favorite because it's a "need to win" game for Washington. Sharps are hoping for that, but will come in at +7 on Sunday morning...particularly if the weather is going to help them. Sometimes a lack of movement means a lack of interest. Other times, there's a lot of interest that won't be unleashed until game day. I think we're looking at that here.
TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA:
This line has been sitting on Atlanta -3 all week, and will probably stay there. These teams are evenly matched...so that a move of just a half a point either way would draw in big money from sharps immediately. Atlanta would get pounded at -2.5...while Tampa Bay would get pounded at +3.5. I'd be surprised to see the line move unless there's a late week injury or the public starts some sort of bandwagon effect on either team. Three is a very common number. Any chance to put three on your side would trump any opinion a sharp had in a game like this.
SAN FRANCISCO AT MIAMI:
There was a big move here on the total, as the opener of 44 dropped down to 41.5. I'm not sure where the 44 came from. San Francisco has been playing defense under new coach Mike Singletary. Miami's been getting hit on the Unders all year. That didn't work in the New England game...but has worked well often otherwise. Last week's game indoors against Buffalo stayed Under by a mile. Looks like a bad opener. Sharps hit the Under at 44, 43, and 42. Miami got some interest on the team side, moving up from -6 to -6.5. The sharps like what they see from San Francisco, but they recognize this as a killer schedule spot. The Niners have to travel back out East for the second time in three weeks...and are in letdown situation after upsetting Brett Favre and the Jets. Sharps figured the public would take the favorite, and wanted that -6 when they could get it. They can buy back some on the Niners if the line keeps moving up to shoot at a middle.
SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS:
This one looks a lot like Green Bay/Jacksonville to the sharps. It's hard to take either side, but the home team is sitting in the teaser window. Do you want to tie up a lot of teasers with bad teams who may not be trying? That's WHY these games are still in the window late in the week! The total has come down a bit. This just isn't a game the sharps are interested in this week.
BUFFALO AT NY JETS:
We saw strong interest on the favorite and the Under here. The Jets moved from -7 to -7.5 and stayed there. That's BIG because seven is such a common result. Any interest on the Bills would have brought the line right back down to seven. Didn't happen. The sharps like the Jets here and were happy to lay just the TD. The total dropped from 43 to 41. I can see that given Buffalo's horrible slump of late, and the Jets slowdown on offense. If weather is going to be an issue, that will only help the Under. Sharps hit it at 43 and 42. If weather develops over the weekend, that number will fall into the 30's. The sharps left a lot of games alone this week. They really stepped in on this one though.
TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON:
We have another game sitting on three, which trumps everything in the NFL. Sharps would lay -2.5 with Tennessee and take +3.5 with Houston because a field goal decision is so common in terms of the game possibilities. The total has fallen from 45.5 to 44.5 on the theory that Tennessee's defense will be the deciding factor in the game. I know some guys who like Houston here. They're already in at +3 even money. I'd be surprised if the line moved off the field goal. The public would have to come in really strong for that to occur...and the public will be focused on other marquee matchups this week.