What a beatdown the Giants gave the 49ers last week. It was a huge revenge game for the 49ers and they got completely outclassed. The moral of thursday's play depends on whether or not you think the 49ers will be flat off the big loss, or pissed. I'd take the latter for a few reasons.
First, home teams rarely get beatdown like that twice in a row. Even the shitty Jets who were shutout 34-0 to the 49ers came back and put up a solid performance against the Texans the week after at home.
Second, the seahawks have a big head right now. They just came back from a 13 point deficit in the 4Q to beat the Patriots. Lot of young players on that team were still talking about it and boasting about it days after. Not a good recipe when you have an angry 49ers team coming up in a few days.
There's also a few other things going against the Seahawks, teams always struggle the week after a big 4Q comeback win as an underdog. It is too emotionally draining. Want proof?
Teams who are losing by 10 or more points after the 3Q and win the game are 4-12 ATS the following week the past 5 years. In road games that drops to just 2-7 ATS.
This Year:
Lions come from back from down 13 in the 4Q to the Rams to win. Week after lose 19-27 to the 49ers
Rams come back from down 15 in the 2nd half and 9 or 10 in the 4Q to beat the Redskins. Week after lose 23-6 to the Bears
Jets come back from down 10 to the Dolphins late to win in OT. Week after lose 34-0 at home to the 49ers.
Chiefs come back from down 11 in the 4Q to beat the Saints. Week after lose 37-20 at home to the Chargers.
Raiders come back from down 10 in the 4Q to beat the Steelers. Week after lose 37-6 in a divisional game against the Broncos.
Seahawks come back from down 7 to beat the Packers in the 4Q. Week after lose to the Rams by 6.
Falcons come back from down 6 in the 4Q to beat the Panthers. Week after win against the Redskins by 7 but were tied and Redskins had all the momentum before RG3 got injured and left the game. (I think backup QB came in and threw 1 or 2 picks if i'm not mistaken.)
Cardinals come back from down 10 in the 4Q to beat the Dolphins. Week after lose 17-3 in a divisional game to the Rams.
Packers come back from down 6 late in the 4Q to beat the Saints. Week after blow a 21-3 lead and lose to the Colts.
I like the 49ers in this spot but not too fond of the spread. This will most likely be a run oriented slow game so points will be hard to come by but Seahawks will have more trouble scoring. I'll take the 49ers -7 small but putting them in a few teasers is a wise decision.
140550761-1
10/15/12 1:37am
$230.00
$200.00
Pending
10/18/12 8:25pm NFL Football 304 San Francisco 49ers -7 -115*vs Seattle Seahawks
140501616-1
10/14/12 8:17pm
$337.50
$250.00
Pending
2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 7½fb & 5½bk
Win
10/14/12 8:30pm NFL Football 231 Green Bay Packers +11½ *vs Houston Texans
Pending
10/18/12 8:25pm NFL Football 304 San Francisco 49ers -1 *vs Seattle Seahawks
What a beatdown the Giants gave the 49ers last week. It was a huge revenge game for the 49ers and they got completely outclassed. The moral of thursday's play depends on whether or not you think the 49ers will be flat off the big loss, or pissed. I'd take the latter for a few reasons.
First, home teams rarely get beatdown like that twice in a row. Even the shitty Jets who were shutout 34-0 to the 49ers came back and put up a solid performance against the Texans the week after at home.
Second, the seahawks have a big head right now. They just came back from a 13 point deficit in the 4Q to beat the Patriots. Lot of young players on that team were still talking about it and boasting about it days after. Not a good recipe when you have an angry 49ers team coming up in a few days.
There's also a few other things going against the Seahawks, teams always struggle the week after a big 4Q comeback win as an underdog. It is too emotionally draining. Want proof?
Teams who are losing by 10 or more points after the 3Q and win the game are 4-12 ATS the following week the past 5 years. In road games that drops to just 2-7 ATS.
This Year:
Lions come from back from down 13 in the 4Q to the Rams to win. Week after lose 19-27 to the 49ers
Rams come back from down 15 in the 2nd half and 9 or 10 in the 4Q to beat the Redskins. Week after lose 23-6 to the Bears
Jets come back from down 10 to the Dolphins late to win in OT. Week after lose 34-0 at home to the 49ers.
Chiefs come back from down 11 in the 4Q to beat the Saints. Week after lose 37-20 at home to the Chargers.
Raiders come back from down 10 in the 4Q to beat the Steelers. Week after lose 37-6 in a divisional game against the Broncos.
Seahawks come back from down 7 to beat the Packers in the 4Q. Week after lose to the Rams by 6.
Falcons come back from down 6 in the 4Q to beat the Panthers. Week after win against the Redskins by 7 but were tied and Redskins had all the momentum before RG3 got injured and left the game. (I think backup QB came in and threw 1 or 2 picks if i'm not mistaken.)
Cardinals come back from down 10 in the 4Q to beat the Dolphins. Week after lose 17-3 in a divisional game to the Rams.
Packers come back from down 6 late in the 4Q to beat the Saints. Week after blow a 21-3 lead and lose to the Colts.
I like the 49ers in this spot but not too fond of the spread. This will most likely be a run oriented slow game so points will be hard to come by but Seahawks will have more trouble scoring. I'll take the 49ers -7 small but putting them in a few teasers is a wise decision.
140550761-1
10/15/12 1:37am
$230.00
$200.00
Pending
10/18/12 8:25pm NFL Football 304 San Francisco 49ers -7 -115*vs Seattle Seahawks
140501616-1
10/14/12 8:17pm
$337.50
$250.00
Pending
2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 7½fb & 5½bk
Win
10/14/12 8:30pm NFL Football 231 Green Bay Packers +11½ *vs Houston Texans
Pending
10/18/12 8:25pm NFL Football 304 San Francisco 49ers -1 *vs Seattle Seahawks
Completely agree. SF is more than likely going to be my survivor pick this week in both of the pools that I'm in. BOL to us. Cheers LC and very nice work in this forum.
Completely agree. SF is more than likely going to be my survivor pick this week in both of the pools that I'm in. BOL to us. Cheers LC and very nice work in this forum.
thought provoking write ups, I try to read your threads whenever possible, would like to add you to friends list to make it easier to dig up your analysis.
thought provoking write ups, I try to read your threads whenever possible, would like to add you to friends list to make it easier to dig up your analysis.
Nice breakdown....Bovada has this at 7.5 right now. I took Seattle and the hook at -115, like Lynch on the ground in this one. I think this line is infalated a bit, both are very similar and have very good defenses; feel like Lynch and Seattle have the better running game and offense in this one. Seattle's defense matches up very well with San Fran and their type of scheme, taking the points here.
Nice breakdown....Bovada has this at 7.5 right now. I took Seattle and the hook at -115, like Lynch on the ground in this one. I think this line is infalated a bit, both are very similar and have very good defenses; feel like Lynch and Seattle have the better running game and offense in this one. Seattle's defense matches up very well with San Fran and their type of scheme, taking the points here.
Nice breakdown....Bovada has this at 7.5 right now. I took Seattle and the hook at -115, like Lynch on the ground in this one. I think this line is infalated a bit, both are very similar and have very good defenses; feel like Lynch and Seattle have the better running game and offense in this one. Seattle's defense matches up very well with San Fran and their type of scheme, taking the points here.
Both are very similar offenses that's correct but don't forget this is the 5th game in 25 days for the Seahawks. A physical running team like that has to be beat up
Nice breakdown....Bovada has this at 7.5 right now. I took Seattle and the hook at -115, like Lynch on the ground in this one. I think this line is infalated a bit, both are very similar and have very good defenses; feel like Lynch and Seattle have the better running game and offense in this one. Seattle's defense matches up very well with San Fran and their type of scheme, taking the points here.
Both are very similar offenses that's correct but don't forget this is the 5th game in 25 days for the Seahawks. A physical running team like that has to be beat up
The Lions were down 23-13 in the fourth quarter and came back to win the game in overtime, does that mean the Chicago Bears would be the play on Monday night?
The Lions were down 23-13 in the fourth quarter and came back to win the game in overtime, does that mean the Chicago Bears would be the play on Monday night?
Already have the Niners straight up and in several teasers this week. Strong play on them for sure coming off a loss. Definitely a let down factor for the Hawks the way they finished the game last week. That's all their defensive players were talking about all post game, beating down Brady and figuring out their offense. GL
Already have the Niners straight up and in several teasers this week. Strong play on them for sure coming off a loss. Definitely a let down factor for the Hawks the way they finished the game last week. That's all their defensive players were talking about all post game, beating down Brady and figuring out their offense. GL
The Lions were down 23-13 in the fourth quarter and came back to win the game in overtime, does that mean the Chicago Bears would be the play on Monday night?
I wouldn't necessarily make a play based on just 1 factor like that but yes that is one thing going the Bears way this Monday. Bears also off their bye week and are usually very good on primetime but let's keep MNF talk till later
The Lions were down 23-13 in the fourth quarter and came back to win the game in overtime, does that mean the Chicago Bears would be the play on Monday night?
I wouldn't necessarily make a play based on just 1 factor like that but yes that is one thing going the Bears way this Monday. Bears also off their bye week and are usually very good on primetime but let's keep MNF talk till later
[quote]Teams who are losing by 10 or more points after the 3Q and win the game are 4-12 ATS the following week the past 5 years. In road games that drops to just 2-7 ATS.[/quote]
That is a very convincing stat!
If i may ask, where did you come up with that obscure statistic & how the hell did you come up with that angle?
[quote]Teams who are losing by 10 or more points after the 3Q and win the game are 4-12 ATS the following week the past 5 years. In road games that drops to just 2-7 ATS.[/quote]
That is a very convincing stat!
If i may ask, where did you come up with that obscure statistic & how the hell did you come up with that angle?
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