Sf opened up as a 2.5 fav currently around 2. Let's look at some numbers:
-2.5 SF 3 4 5 13 2 20
Kc 18 7 17 4 3 5
SF is better in Off passing, Off rushing, Def rushing, Sagarin rank 2 vs 3, while KC is better in 2 categories Def passing 4 vs 13 and schedule strength of 5 vs 20.
A few things to recognize:
1. The game is being played on a Neutral field.
2. An apples to apples comparison would be to find games played on a neutral field with an opening line of 2.5 for the top team and a scenario where the teams were better or worst in the categories listed above. Going thru the past 20 SB - I didn't have anything exactly like the above.
3. I look for patterns in the data and get into looking at the numbers and themes that stick out.
4. I also look at away and home data for situations like the above - I have found often it does replicate eventhough it is a neutral field.
Looking at previous superbowls there are patterns that indicate that the top Team (SF) should win it and cover - two recent games were when NE played Atlanta and when NE played the Rams. In those games the top team won out and this game follows a pattern between def., sagarin rank and Schedule strength - in those two games the Top team took it and covered.
I also look at games played historically that have the same scenario and hope the same opening line. With this particular scenario there were no games with a 2.5 opening line for the away team and this scenario; however, we had 13 games with lines that were close - 1.5, 2, 4 , 3, 3.5 6. 11 of those games the away team won and covered 10 of the games. 2 times the bottom team won su.
Schedule strength is an important factor particularly in SB's. Looking at the last 6 super bowls played on Neutral fields 3 teams with stronger schedule strength covered and 3 teams with the worst schedule strength won.
Looking at home and away data there is a stark difference between the Schedule strength of SF - 20 and KC - 5. The 13 games I viewed all were games where the schedule strength for the home team had a single digit. In this case, when the oddsmakers make the top team favored eventhough the bottom team has a sched strength of 5 vs 20 - the data supports taking SF.
I slice and dice a lot of numbers i'm liking SF.
My Play
1. SF -2
Good luck all