I have NO, TEN, and MIN as highly rated picks for those that vary their unit play. The Minnesota line in particular I think is not even close. I actually have this as my highest rated play so far of the season. The closest 2 this year have been Indy in Week 2 and the Jets in Week 4. So, if you're thinking about betting the Jets this week, I encourage you to stay away if nothing else. Good luck!
I have NO, TEN, and MIN as highly rated picks for those that vary their unit play. The Minnesota line in particular I think is not even close. I actually have this as my highest rated play so far of the season. The closest 2 this year have been Indy in Week 2 and the Jets in Week 4. So, if you're thinking about betting the Jets this week, I encourage you to stay away if nothing else. Good luck!
Ha! I wish. Unfortunately, just watching from the side lines. BTW, keep an eye out for the picks they post Saturday. Last week, picks that had a consensus of 60%+ went 6-1. And, everything went 11-3. I'm kind of surprised they even post that information before the games start.
Ha! I wish. Unfortunately, just watching from the side lines. BTW, keep an eye out for the picks they post Saturday. Last week, picks that had a consensus of 60%+ went 6-1. And, everything went 11-3. I'm kind of surprised they even post that information before the games start.
Because if I was running a book, I don't think I'd want to show people what professionals are betting on. Especially when you see the kind of disparity like you did with the San Diego and Washington games.
I've never subscribed to one of the services that shows what kinds of bets are getting a lot of action because frankly I don't trust the information. But, these weekly picks are verified by third party sources (Bill Simmons of ESPN is one of the entrants). Maybe they don't care because most people who'd use the information are betting at online books anyways.
Because if I was running a book, I don't think I'd want to show people what professionals are betting on. Especially when you see the kind of disparity like you did with the San Diego and Washington games.
I've never subscribed to one of the services that shows what kinds of bets are getting a lot of action because frankly I don't trust the information. But, these weekly picks are verified by third party sources (Bill Simmons of ESPN is one of the entrants). Maybe they don't care because most people who'd use the information are betting at online books anyways.
Ya know, I'm not sure most people pay attention to who they take. I most certainly do and have been helped immensly. These guys do it for a living in many cases. People get a "gut" feeling on things and refuse to look at logic.
There's another poster on here, I believe "sniperswife" that posts when his local bookie is getting an inordinate amount of action on one side and is 5 - 0 now I think. Great barometer IMO.
Then of course there's the "fade the goofs" factor on this board which I subscribe to wholeheartedly. Not that there aren't good cappers here, there are. Rush, Igetmoney, DFence, estes, ForcstinFloyd just to name a few, but by and large a lot of goofs.
Ya know, I'm not sure most people pay attention to who they take. I most certainly do and have been helped immensly. These guys do it for a living in many cases. People get a "gut" feeling on things and refuse to look at logic.
There's another poster on here, I believe "sniperswife" that posts when his local bookie is getting an inordinate amount of action on one side and is 5 - 0 now I think. Great barometer IMO.
Then of course there's the "fade the goofs" factor on this board which I subscribe to wholeheartedly. Not that there aren't good cappers here, there are. Rush, Igetmoney, DFence, estes, ForcstinFloyd just to name a few, but by and large a lot of goofs.
You're probably right. Seems like more people just want to post their opinions than think about another's. With that said, good luck this week. I think this could be a big one for me.
You're probably right. Seems like more people just want to post their opinions than think about another's. With that said, good luck this week. I think this could be a big one for me.
You're probably right. Seems like more people just want to post their opinions than think about another's. With that said, good luck this week. I think this could be a big one for me.
I hope it is I like the Minny pick and am starting to love the Philly pick. The world thinks S.F. can't go 0-4 and with Kolb starting, give Philly no chance. I like the way a team reacts when the starting QB goes down. The first week anyway. He will be ready IMO.
You're probably right. Seems like more people just want to post their opinions than think about another's. With that said, good luck this week. I think this could be a big one for me.
I hope it is I like the Minny pick and am starting to love the Philly pick. The world thinks S.F. can't go 0-4 and with Kolb starting, give Philly no chance. I like the way a team reacts when the starting QB goes down. The first week anyway. He will be ready IMO.
Ha! I wish. Unfortunately, just watching from the side lines. BTW, keep an eye out for the picks they post Saturday. Last week, picks that had a consensus of 60%+ went 6-1. And, everything went 11-3. I'm kind of surprised they even post that information before the games start.
Just for the record, anyone who's interested in following the consesus picks of the Hilton contest, they consistently produce a losing record year after year, good luck with that !!
Ha! I wish. Unfortunately, just watching from the side lines. BTW, keep an eye out for the picks they post Saturday. Last week, picks that had a consensus of 60%+ went 6-1. And, everything went 11-3. I'm kind of surprised they even post that information before the games start.
Just for the record, anyone who's interested in following the consesus picks of the Hilton contest, they consistently produce a losing record year after year, good luck with that !!
Rinconen looking for help here. Down on my luck and need your knowlege at handicapping games. Not big time just playing to make games more interesting, but suck at teasers.
Rinconen looking for help here. Down on my luck and need your knowlege at handicapping games. Not big time just playing to make games more interesting, but suck at teasers.
Just for the record, anyone who's interested in following the consesus picks of the Hilton contest, they consistently produce a losing record year after year, good luck with that !!
True, the concensus picks are not a good blind follow. The number 1 pick generally goes 10 - 6 or 11-5, not bad. However, there are consistant winners in the contest...FEZZIK is one and RONIN is another. Just use as a guide is all not an end all cure all.
Just for the record, anyone who's interested in following the consesus picks of the Hilton contest, they consistently produce a losing record year after year, good luck with that !!
True, the concensus picks are not a good blind follow. The number 1 pick generally goes 10 - 6 or 11-5, not bad. However, there are consistant winners in the contest...FEZZIK is one and RONIN is another. Just use as a guide is all not an end all cure all.
I have NO, TEN, and MIN as highly rated picks for those that vary their unit play. The Minnesota line in particular I think is not even close. I actually have this as my highest rated play so far of the season. The closest 2 this year have been Indy in Week 2 and the Jets in Week 4. So, if you're thinking about betting the Jets this week, I encourage you to stay away if nothing else. Good luck!
sorry new to posting messages, just looking for an edge up here. not doing well with my teasers. Can you help a guy out down on his luck.
I have NO, TEN, and MIN as highly rated picks for those that vary their unit play. The Minnesota line in particular I think is not even close. I actually have this as my highest rated play so far of the season. The closest 2 this year have been Indy in Week 2 and the Jets in Week 4. So, if you're thinking about betting the Jets this week, I encourage you to stay away if nothing else. Good luck!
sorry new to posting messages, just looking for an edge up here. not doing well with my teasers. Can you help a guy out down on his luck.
Stay away from teasers...use the flat betting system and don't play too many games. Volume will kill you.
Agreed. Teasers and parlays are sucker plays. If you want to make 'fun' bets, fine. But, you shouldn't be putting any serious money into these type of plays.
Stay away from teasers...use the flat betting system and don't play too many games. Volume will kill you.
Agreed. Teasers and parlays are sucker plays. If you want to make 'fun' bets, fine. But, you shouldn't be putting any serious money into these type of plays.
sorry new to posting messages, just looking for an edge up here. not doing well with my teasers. Can you help a guy out down on his luck.
First, stop doing teasers. Second, this is the NFL - the most competiive league in the world. You can't just bet who you think the best team is, because frankly you'd be betting the Colts every week. Each week stands on its own. Each week features situational plays. That's why I like Minnesota this week. It has nothing to do with how old Favre is, how mediocre his receivers have been, how amazing the Jets have been. It's about one 1 week in a schedule where the stars align in the gambling world to produce a winning play.
Vegas doesn't set lines based on just reality. Many are set based on perceived reality. And, if you asked a 100 football fans who they like in this game, I bet 90% of them tell you the Jets. (Whether they bet is another story.) Yet, the line is only -4. Makes you think doesn't it? The fact is I think a lot of teams cover against the Jets this week. Maybe not if the line was 4 points. But, if Cleveland played them, it probably be Jets -8.5 or something and I'd be on Cleveland all day long. The fact that it IS Favre who rarely lets down in primetime games make all that much better. Just my two cents.
sorry new to posting messages, just looking for an edge up here. not doing well with my teasers. Can you help a guy out down on his luck.
First, stop doing teasers. Second, this is the NFL - the most competiive league in the world. You can't just bet who you think the best team is, because frankly you'd be betting the Colts every week. Each week stands on its own. Each week features situational plays. That's why I like Minnesota this week. It has nothing to do with how old Favre is, how mediocre his receivers have been, how amazing the Jets have been. It's about one 1 week in a schedule where the stars align in the gambling world to produce a winning play.
Vegas doesn't set lines based on just reality. Many are set based on perceived reality. And, if you asked a 100 football fans who they like in this game, I bet 90% of them tell you the Jets. (Whether they bet is another story.) Yet, the line is only -4. Makes you think doesn't it? The fact is I think a lot of teams cover against the Jets this week. Maybe not if the line was 4 points. But, if Cleveland played them, it probably be Jets -8.5 or something and I'd be on Cleveland all day long. The fact that it IS Favre who rarely lets down in primetime games make all that much better. Just my two cents.
BTW, I've been reviewing my wins just to see how flukey I might be. You can never be too sure of yourself. Not sure this is the best measure, but basically I compared my 15 winning plays to all NFL winning plays in terms of how early the winning play was covered/pushed. Again, I'm not sure if this is a better measure than say points over the spread. But, here's how it broke down.
All NFL winning plays (i.e. all 62 games if you picked right every time):
Entire Game/1st Quarter: 46.8% (29 games)
2nd Quarter:12.9% (8 games)
3rd Quarter: 25.8% (16 games)
4th Quarter/Overtime: 14.5% (9 games)
My winning plays:
Entire Game/1st Quarter: 73.3% (11 games)
2nd Quarter: 13.3% (2 games)
3rd Quarter: 0% (0 games)
4th Quarter/Overtime: 13.3% (2 games)
So, it seems I may be getting a good read on these games and it may not be just lucky breaks. We'll see how the rest of the season goes. It's still very early.
BTW, I've been reviewing my wins just to see how flukey I might be. You can never be too sure of yourself. Not sure this is the best measure, but basically I compared my 15 winning plays to all NFL winning plays in terms of how early the winning play was covered/pushed. Again, I'm not sure if this is a better measure than say points over the spread. But, here's how it broke down.
All NFL winning plays (i.e. all 62 games if you picked right every time):
Entire Game/1st Quarter: 46.8% (29 games)
2nd Quarter:12.9% (8 games)
3rd Quarter: 25.8% (16 games)
4th Quarter/Overtime: 14.5% (9 games)
My winning plays:
Entire Game/1st Quarter: 73.3% (11 games)
2nd Quarter: 13.3% (2 games)
3rd Quarter: 0% (0 games)
4th Quarter/Overtime: 13.3% (2 games)
So, it seems I may be getting a good read on these games and it may not be just lucky breaks. We'll see how the rest of the season goes. It's still very early.
Bobby Smith, who I think is also a "naysayer" on teasers in general, nevertheless says that THIS is the week to bet NFL teasers. Week 5. Lots of close games vs. the spread due.
Bobby Smith, who I think is also a "naysayer" on teasers in general, nevertheless says that THIS is the week to bet NFL teasers. Week 5. Lots of close games vs. the spread due.
Alright, I've re-crunched some numbers. Lot of injuries/substitions this week. And, I've made some adjustments to my picks. See my NEW Week 5 picks below:
Atlanta -3
Denver +7
New York Giants +3
San Diego -6
Tennessee +6.5
Minnesota +4
Denver is now my only highly rated play, but I still have Minnesota as a very good play this week. Good luck all.
Alright, I've re-crunched some numbers. Lot of injuries/substitions this week. And, I've made some adjustments to my picks. See my NEW Week 5 picks below:
Atlanta -3
Denver +7
New York Giants +3
San Diego -6
Tennessee +6.5
Minnesota +4
Denver is now my only highly rated play, but I still have Minnesota as a very good play this week. Good luck all.
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