I just woke up to see Dallas -7 and Carolina -4.5.
Imo, both lines are way inflated, and I hit both dogs for a unit. I'll be back with more insight as the week progresses as well as any wagers on the AFC once the lines come out.
Bowl games, I don't like any games today, so all three games are tiny 1/4 unit plays to make them a touch more interesting. Texas AM ML +105, Clemson +4.5, and Arkansas -6.5. If you remember from my last thread, I started the bowl games something like 0-8 and was hit by every bad beat imaginable(some bad bets too in there) before I finally cashed on Rice. Since then, I turned it around and cashed on every game except for USC, so I've gotten hot after a unbelievably bad start Hopefully that keeps up and can get back in the plus in bowl games.
So.....so far:
- Lions +7 for 1 unit.
- Cardinals +4.5 for 1 unit.
- Stanford -14 on Tuesday for 1/2 unit(really love their D and think they ROMP).
- Texas AM ML +105 for 1/4 unit.
- Clemson +4.5 for 1/4 unit.
- Arkansas -6.5 for 1/4 unit.
GL to all and interested on everyone take in these playoff games. Imo, those lines were way off. I was thinking Dallas -4.5 and Carolina -2.5 and 7 and 4.5 were a lot higher than I thought. Wondering if I'm the only guy who was surprised by these lines.
I just woke up to see Dallas -7 and Carolina -4.5.
Imo, both lines are way inflated, and I hit both dogs for a unit. I'll be back with more insight as the week progresses as well as any wagers on the AFC once the lines come out.
Bowl games, I don't like any games today, so all three games are tiny 1/4 unit plays to make them a touch more interesting. Texas AM ML +105, Clemson +4.5, and Arkansas -6.5. If you remember from my last thread, I started the bowl games something like 0-8 and was hit by every bad beat imaginable(some bad bets too in there) before I finally cashed on Rice. Since then, I turned it around and cashed on every game except for USC, so I've gotten hot after a unbelievably bad start Hopefully that keeps up and can get back in the plus in bowl games.
So.....so far:
- Lions +7 for 1 unit.
- Cardinals +4.5 for 1 unit.
- Stanford -14 on Tuesday for 1/2 unit(really love their D and think they ROMP).
- Texas AM ML +105 for 1/4 unit.
- Clemson +4.5 for 1/4 unit.
- Arkansas -6.5 for 1/4 unit.
GL to all and interested on everyone take in these playoff games. Imo, those lines were way off. I was thinking Dallas -4.5 and Carolina -2.5 and 7 and 4.5 were a lot higher than I thought. Wondering if I'm the only guy who was surprised by these lines.
Signs show the line dropping to a heavily juiced 3, but I will rather take a free 3.5 than a -120/-125 -3. At least in this game.
I'm not high on Indy as a whole and I came into this playoffs expecting to fade them immediately. I'm not sure Cincy on the road is the spot. Dalton has been a horror show in the playoffs in his career so that will be hovering over him. 1/4 of the team is fighting off the flu. AJ Green is banged up. And I keep thinking back to their matchup a couple months ago where Indy absolutely embarrassed the Bengals. Rolling with Luck here before I inevitably fade away next round.
Damn Zona getting 6.5 now. And I thought 4.5 was an inflated line. IMO, tough to pass on those points. Carolina got hot at the right time and stole a weak division, but Zona still has a nasty defense and as long as Lindley doesn't hand over the game 100%, I don't see the Panthers winning that game.
Signs show the line dropping to a heavily juiced 3, but I will rather take a free 3.5 than a -120/-125 -3. At least in this game.
I'm not high on Indy as a whole and I came into this playoffs expecting to fade them immediately. I'm not sure Cincy on the road is the spot. Dalton has been a horror show in the playoffs in his career so that will be hovering over him. 1/4 of the team is fighting off the flu. AJ Green is banged up. And I keep thinking back to their matchup a couple months ago where Indy absolutely embarrassed the Bengals. Rolling with Luck here before I inevitably fade away next round.
Damn Zona getting 6.5 now. And I thought 4.5 was an inflated line. IMO, tough to pass on those points. Carolina got hot at the right time and stole a weak division, but Zona still has a nasty defense and as long as Lindley doesn't hand over the game 100%, I don't see the Panthers winning that game.
- Zona +4.5(bad line, didn't think it would rise).
Okay, the final game I took Pitt -3 for 1/2 a unit. I don't and never liked Flacco on the road except in spots like his SB run where the lines were so inflated against IMO overrated and overvalued AFC "powerhouses."
Why only 1/2 a unit on Pitt, a team whose D has really stepped up and an offense that directly attacks Balts weakness? I have 4 props from pre-season and a pair of them are on Baltimore(1/4 unit each). Balt to win AFC(+1600) and Balt to win SB(+3400). I figured if Pitt comes out and wins like they should, it will nearly clean up the 1/2 unit I will lose on the props. I didn't want to bet a full unit or higher(thought about going 2 units I like Pitt that much), because in the event Balt pulls off a win and gets hot and make a run, I don't want any Pitt bets watering down my props.
Speaking of props from pre-season also have Lions at +3500 to win the NFC and +6200 to win the Super Bowl. This was looking really pretty if they could hsve stolen a bye and gotten HFA. As a 6 seed though....not so hot. I can see them beating Dallas, but Seattle is gonna be tough.
So those my 4 NFL plays.
Also have:
- ECU +7 in college over Florida for 1/2 unit.
- FSU +7.5 over Oregon for 1/4 unit.
- Alabama -8 over OSU for 1/4 unit.
GL to all. Thanks and BOL to everyone who has chipped in my threads with well wishes and insught over the season. Let's all win some money and end the season adding to a profitable if not unspectacular season of wagering!
- Zona +4.5(bad line, didn't think it would rise).
Okay, the final game I took Pitt -3 for 1/2 a unit. I don't and never liked Flacco on the road except in spots like his SB run where the lines were so inflated against IMO overrated and overvalued AFC "powerhouses."
Why only 1/2 a unit on Pitt, a team whose D has really stepped up and an offense that directly attacks Balts weakness? I have 4 props from pre-season and a pair of them are on Baltimore(1/4 unit each). Balt to win AFC(+1600) and Balt to win SB(+3400). I figured if Pitt comes out and wins like they should, it will nearly clean up the 1/2 unit I will lose on the props. I didn't want to bet a full unit or higher(thought about going 2 units I like Pitt that much), because in the event Balt pulls off a win and gets hot and make a run, I don't want any Pitt bets watering down my props.
Speaking of props from pre-season also have Lions at +3500 to win the NFC and +6200 to win the Super Bowl. This was looking really pretty if they could hsve stolen a bye and gotten HFA. As a 6 seed though....not so hot. I can see them beating Dallas, but Seattle is gonna be tough.
So those my 4 NFL plays.
Also have:
- ECU +7 in college over Florida for 1/2 unit.
- FSU +7.5 over Oregon for 1/4 unit.
- Alabama -8 over OSU for 1/4 unit.
GL to all. Thanks and BOL to everyone who has chipped in my threads with well wishes and insught over the season. Let's all win some money and end the season adding to a profitable if not unspectacular season of wagering!
glyde, gl my man…hope you have a profitable playoff run…
not sure what to think of the Indy game. I love Luck, but their D worries me. That said, really hard to back the ginger. And AJ looked off. Even if he plays, how effective is he going to be. If he looked better and was a 100%, I would take Cincy, think I'm laying off there.
Zona's D is why I have backed them in the past. It was really good. Other than that, the only good things about Zona is their coach, the resolve or fight they have in them. But most vital to them is their D, which has really slid lately and that is a huge red flag for me. Not sure if it can bounce back, but lately has not been as good. And Lindley is bad. So inaccurate, and I think will give at least one big pick that will set up an easy score for the Panthers…I wanted the Panthers at -4, but before I knew it they were laying a td. Not doing that either. May tease them w the Lions actually.
glyde, gl my man…hope you have a profitable playoff run…
not sure what to think of the Indy game. I love Luck, but their D worries me. That said, really hard to back the ginger. And AJ looked off. Even if he plays, how effective is he going to be. If he looked better and was a 100%, I would take Cincy, think I'm laying off there.
Zona's D is why I have backed them in the past. It was really good. Other than that, the only good things about Zona is their coach, the resolve or fight they have in them. But most vital to them is their D, which has really slid lately and that is a huge red flag for me. Not sure if it can bounce back, but lately has not been as good. And Lindley is bad. So inaccurate, and I think will give at least one big pick that will set up an easy score for the Panthers…I wanted the Panthers at -4, but before I knew it they were laying a td. Not doing that either. May tease them w the Lions actually.
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