The Giants' rush D is sub-par this year, allowing an average of 122.2 yards per game (21st in the NFL) with six rushing scores handed over to date. Seattle's bevy of ball-carriers combined for 29/145/1 rushing last week (a 5.0 yards per carry average), led by Marshawn Lynch's 12/98/1 rushing (an 8.2 yards allowed per carry average for the Giants). Chris Wells and company rolled to 32/156/3 rushing vs. New York two weeks ago. The Giants' rush D is an embarrassment right now.
Advantage, Jackson and the Bills.
Ahmad Bradshaw has seen the lions' share of the work over the last three weeks, with 44/183/1 rushing and 15 targets for 11/91/1 receiving, while Brandon Jacobs (who was out last week due to a knee injury) has also scored two times during that span with much less work (16/37/1 rushing and four targets for 3/42/1 receiving). Bradshaw posted 17/58/0 rushing and 2/27/0 receiving vs. Seattle last week as the Giants crawled to 25/69/0 rushing as a team. The Giants need Bradshaw to contribute more than 3.4 yards per carry going forwards, folks.The Bills' rush D is ranked 29th in the NFL averaging 138.4 yards allowed per game, with five rushing TDs handed over through five games - unsurprisingly, the Eagles tore Buffalo apart for 19/174/1 rushing last week, while Cincinnati ripped off 32/171/1 rushing vs. Buffalo two weeks ago. Not too good, friends.
Ryan Fitzpatrick did a workmanlike job vs. Philadelphia last week, posting 21/27 for 193 yards, one TD and one interception - RB Fred Jackson handled a lot of flares last week, with six targets for 6/85/0 receiving, while the above-mentioned Roosevelt was second on the team, and Steve Johnson managed five targets for 4/29/0 receiving. Over the past three weeks, Fitzpatrick has cooled off after his guns-blazing start to the year, with 68/101 for 761 yards, three TDs and three interceptions thrown. During that three game span, Johnson leads the team with 21 targets for 16/181/1 receiving, followed by the now-injured Jones (20 for 10/147/0), Fred Jackson (20 for 16/204/0), David Nelson (13 for 9/108/1) and Roosevelt (nine for 6/69/0).
The Giants' pass D relies on their defensive front to deliver pressure, and they lead the league in sacks to date with eighteen, and they are tied for second-least passing TDs allowed so far this year with just five given up. So far the Giants average 251.2 net yards allowed per game (18th in the NFL), with five interceptions generated by the secondary (tied for 12th in the NFL). When the field is compressed in the red zone, the Giants make things hard on opposing passers.
Eli Manning had a hard-luck third interception (on a carom off Victor Cruz's hands) wreck a late-fourth-quarter comeback vs. Seattle, but he did throw three TDs last week to balance the three interceptions he tossed last week (24/39 for 420 yards, a career-best in passing yards). Victor Cruz has cemented his hold on a starting job for the Giants over the past three weeks, with 25 targets for 17/369/3 receiving during that time span - he's seen just one less pass than Hakeem Nicks (26 for 17/252/2) and Cruz has done more with his catches. Mario Manningham languishes far behind now, with 14 targets for 6/66/0 to his credit in the last three weeks, though he did get nine chances last week with 5/56/0 receiving. Cruz (11 for 8/161/1), Nicks (seven for 4/65/1) and TE Jake Ballard (four for 3/72/1) were all more productive last week, though.The Bills' pass D currently ranks 26th in the NFL averaging 283.4 net yards allowed per game, and are tied for the second-most passing scores allowed to date with 10 surrendered. However, they lead the NFL with 12 interceptions (a problem for Manning last week as noted above) but are tied for last in the NFL with just five sacks. They are an opportunistic bunch in the secondary.
MY PREDICTION: I'm gonna go with the team here who is playing solid football right now. The Buffalo Bills are a team that just doesn't make many mistakes with Fitzpatrick at QB. They have a positive turnover margin of +11. When you play the Giants with the erratic Eli Manning at QB this is key. Another thing to note is the Giants do have the #1 pass rush in the NFL but guess who is #1 in least sacks allowed? Yup the Buffalo Bills. The Giants just are not a good enough football team right now to beat the solid Bills and I'm gonna back Buffalo with the points in this one. Buffalo gets it done again here.
BUFFALO BILLS +3.5 -110