Last week I took a look a couple sleeper teams in the NFL to win the Super Bowl. This week I will begin to look at some season win totals, starting with the NFL Unders.
The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.
Under 9.5 New England Patriots +110 (BEST BET)
The once powerful Patriots dynasty has taken a step back ever since that last second Super Bowl loss against the Giants three years ago. New England failed to make the playoffs at 11-5 in 2008 and last season, it got back into the postseason with a 10-6 record only to get hammered in the Wild Card round at home against Baltimore.
This season, New England enters camp without an offensive or defensive coordinator in place which is almost unheard of nowadays in the NFL. Dean Pees, the defensive coordinator the last six years was let go while Bill O’Brien, who is the quarterbacks coach, is the closest thing to a coordinator in that side of the ball.
While the Patriots still have Tom Brady at quarterback, they are not getting any younger. Both Randy Moss and Wes Welker have lost a step at receiver while the running back situation is relatively the same with Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor all 33 and above. The offensive line is solid but is aging as well.
Defensively, New England is not even close to the same roster that went to the Super Bowl. The pieces are there for the unit to be strong but there are missing pieces that can bring it down as well. The Patriots were fifth in the league in points allowed last year but that did not tell the full story. They need to shore up the run defense in a hurry.
New England has not won fewer than 10 games since 2002 so going under this number may seem illogical. However, the AFC East is as strong as ever and the schedule is daunting. The Jets and Dolphins are both divisional title candidates and while the Bills will be down once again, travelling to Orchard Park in late December means anything can happen.
As for the rest of the schedule, it is far from easy. The Patriots travel to San Diego, Pittsburgh (after the Big Ben return) and Chicago while home games include visits from Cincinnati, Baltimore, Minnesota, Indianapolis and Green Bay. Those are eight games that can go either way so a 3-5 record in those means even going 4-2 in the division (which is a stretch) and 2-0 against Cleveland and Detroit, nine wins is the max. Predicted Finish: 9-7
Other Unders to look at:
Under 7.5 Denver Broncos -130
I’m guessing we see the 2-8 Broncos that came down the stretcher rather than the one that started the season 6-0. Predicted Finish: 6-10
Under 5 Detroit Lions +110
I think Detroit will be improved but improving from two wins over the last two years is not hard to do. Predicted Finish: 4-12
What other NFL Futures look good to stay under?
Matt Fargo is a Professional handicapper at Covers Experts, where “We only make money when you do”.