Week 5 Monday Night Special Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints -3.0 Welcome back Brian McKinney. Adrian Peterson and this offense have been missing you big time. This game is just a TERRIBLE match-up for the Saints. Offensively the Saints are going to be in trouble, they are missing 3 key receivers (Shockey, Colston, Patten), and I don’t think they’ll be able to move the ball with Minnesota’s suffocating Run D. On the flipside of the ball, New Orleans defense is terrible. How they are going to stop Adrian Peterson, now that he’s getting his LT back is beyond me. Even Gus Frerotte will hook up with Berrian on at least 1 deep ball, and that’ll be enough to seal the deal for the Vikings. Minnesota covers here, and probably wins this thing outright. Mac Picks: Minnesota +3.0
Week 5 Monday Night Special Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints -3.0 Welcome back Brian McKinney. Adrian Peterson and this offense have been missing you big time. This game is just a TERRIBLE match-up for the Saints. Offensively the Saints are going to be in trouble, they are missing 3 key receivers (Shockey, Colston, Patten), and I don’t think they’ll be able to move the ball with Minnesota’s suffocating Run D. On the flipside of the ball, New Orleans defense is terrible. How they are going to stop Adrian Peterson, now that he’s getting his LT back is beyond me. Even Gus Frerotte will hook up with Berrian on at least 1 deep ball, and that’ll be enough to seal the deal for the Vikings. Minnesota covers here, and probably wins this thing outright. Mac Picks: Minnesota +3.0
did a yards per point formula for the game has the score
New Orleans 27.0
Minnesota 19.6
But the variance is very low so you should pass on this game
Keys to Success
1Try throwing deep: The Vikings are likely to see some single man coverages by the Saints, who will load up to stop the run and Peterson with their safeties heavily involved in run support. It is a scheme that worked against the 49ers on Sunday and it is something the Saints will try again on Monday night. It seems the coaches trust Frerotte more in the passing game than they did Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikings seem to be opening up the playbook. Wide receiver Bernard Berrian is their speed guy and he will get a favorable matchup without safety help over the top. This is a pass offense ranked 26th in average gain per pass play, which tells you that the Vikings struggle to stretch the field. Frerotte throws a nice deep ball and if he can at least loosen up the Saints' defense, it could open up some run lanes for Peterson.
2Pound the rock and control the clock: The identity of this offense is very clear -- run the football, win in the trenches and slow down the game, and you do that with Peterson. The good news for Minnesota is that McKinnie returns from a four-week suspension and that solidifies the left side of this line, along with left guard Steve Hutchinson and center Matt Birk. Peterson loves to run to the left side. The Saints give up big rushing plays and don't always play with good gap discipline. That's something the Vikings' run game can exploit. The biggest advantage for Minnesota if it can run the ball effectively is that it keeps the explosive Saints offense off the field. The Vikings are not capable of playing an up-tempo game and if they limit the Saints' offensive possessions by holding on to the ball and moving the chains, they have a chance to control the pace of the game. For Minnesota, the slower the better.
3Create some big plays on defense: The Vikings are in the bottom third of the NFL in sacks and interceptions and rarely seem to make a game-changing play or create a turnover that gives their offense positive field position. They have an excellent front seven which is very strong at the point of attack and tough to run against, but the back end is a different story. They are physical in the secondary in run support, especially when their corners are squatting in Cover 2 schemes, but they are not a good matchup secondary when they go to man-to-man coverage. They are especially vulnerable in the middle of the field in terms of safety coverage and range. The Vikings do not match up well against a Saints passing game that can spread the field. Brees has a lot of targets, but if the Vikings stay in the Cover 2 New Orleans will pick them apart. Minnesota must come with blitzes and pressure and hope for the best.
did a yards per point formula for the game has the score
New Orleans 27.0
Minnesota 19.6
But the variance is very low so you should pass on this game
Keys to Success
1Try throwing deep: The Vikings are likely to see some single man coverages by the Saints, who will load up to stop the run and Peterson with their safeties heavily involved in run support. It is a scheme that worked against the 49ers on Sunday and it is something the Saints will try again on Monday night. It seems the coaches trust Frerotte more in the passing game than they did Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikings seem to be opening up the playbook. Wide receiver Bernard Berrian is their speed guy and he will get a favorable matchup without safety help over the top. This is a pass offense ranked 26th in average gain per pass play, which tells you that the Vikings struggle to stretch the field. Frerotte throws a nice deep ball and if he can at least loosen up the Saints' defense, it could open up some run lanes for Peterson.
2Pound the rock and control the clock: The identity of this offense is very clear -- run the football, win in the trenches and slow down the game, and you do that with Peterson. The good news for Minnesota is that McKinnie returns from a four-week suspension and that solidifies the left side of this line, along with left guard Steve Hutchinson and center Matt Birk. Peterson loves to run to the left side. The Saints give up big rushing plays and don't always play with good gap discipline. That's something the Vikings' run game can exploit. The biggest advantage for Minnesota if it can run the ball effectively is that it keeps the explosive Saints offense off the field. The Vikings are not capable of playing an up-tempo game and if they limit the Saints' offensive possessions by holding on to the ball and moving the chains, they have a chance to control the pace of the game. For Minnesota, the slower the better.
3Create some big plays on defense: The Vikings are in the bottom third of the NFL in sacks and interceptions and rarely seem to make a game-changing play or create a turnover that gives their offense positive field position. They have an excellent front seven which is very strong at the point of attack and tough to run against, but the back end is a different story. They are physical in the secondary in run support, especially when their corners are squatting in Cover 2 schemes, but they are not a good matchup secondary when they go to man-to-man coverage. They are especially vulnerable in the middle of the field in terms of safety coverage and range. The Vikings do not match up well against a Saints passing game that can spread the field. Brees has a lot of targets, but if the Vikings stay in the Cover 2 New Orleans will pick them apart. Minnesota must come with blitzes and pressure and hope for the best.
Nice writeup. What is the yards per point formula? What proof do you have that it is an effective indicator of actual scores?
I am sure you agree that no system is infallible. I feel like MIN is hungry for a win and that even though Gus sort of sucks he is an improvement over Tavaris throwing the ball. And that OL is killer. I also think Ellis was a huge boost to the Saints DL and him being out is huge to me.
GL all, I am taking MIN alt spread mainly because I would probably watch the game anyway. Just like I did with the Steelers tonight, though, I might bet bigger through live betting. ( love being able to get a feel for the game before betting)
Nice writeup. What is the yards per point formula? What proof do you have that it is an effective indicator of actual scores?
I am sure you agree that no system is infallible. I feel like MIN is hungry for a win and that even though Gus sort of sucks he is an improvement over Tavaris throwing the ball. And that OL is killer. I also think Ellis was a huge boost to the Saints DL and him being out is huge to me.
GL all, I am taking MIN alt spread mainly because I would probably watch the game anyway. Just like I did with the Steelers tonight, though, I might bet bigger through live betting. ( love being able to get a feel for the game before betting)
SAINTS WILL STACK THE BOX AND CONTAIN MINNY'S RUN GAME. TOUGH TO WIN WHEN YOU ARE ONE DIMENSIONAL AND HAVE AN AVERAGE QB WHO HAS PROVEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN HE CAN'T CARRY A TEAM. SAINTS IN A BLOWOUT. BUT GOOD LUCK.
SAINTS WILL STACK THE BOX AND CONTAIN MINNY'S RUN GAME. TOUGH TO WIN WHEN YOU ARE ONE DIMENSIONAL AND HAVE AN AVERAGE QB WHO HAS PROVEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN HE CAN'T CARRY A TEAM. SAINTS IN A BLOWOUT. BUT GOOD LUCK.
That's the only thing that scares me about this game, and that's the N.O home field advantage factor. They are a much different team at home.
Gamecock35: That is 1 of the factors as well.
Nevadaeasy: 28-14 Minnesota.
Ok it's just that everywwhere I read he is quoted as a 50/50 proposition for tonight. The Vikings certainly need a big play from him tonight if he does play otherwise I don't see where their points will come from.
That's the only thing that scares me about this game, and that's the N.O home field advantage factor. They are a much different team at home.
Gamecock35: That is 1 of the factors as well.
Nevadaeasy: 28-14 Minnesota.
Ok it's just that everywwhere I read he is quoted as a 50/50 proposition for tonight. The Vikings certainly need a big play from him tonight if he does play otherwise I don't see where their points will come from.
SAINTS WILL STACK THE BOX AND CONTAIN MINNY'S RUN GAME. TOUGH TO WIN WHEN YOU ARE ONE DIMENSIONAL AND HAVE AN AVERAGE QB WHO HAS PROVEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN HE CAN'T CARRY A TEAM. SAINTS IN A BLOWOUT. BUT GOOD LUCK.
Proven time and time again? Gus only started 4 games this year...he doesn't have to carry them. Saints defense is a siv, Minnys Oline dominates this one.
SAINTS WILL STACK THE BOX AND CONTAIN MINNY'S RUN GAME. TOUGH TO WIN WHEN YOU ARE ONE DIMENSIONAL AND HAVE AN AVERAGE QB WHO HAS PROVEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN HE CAN'T CARRY A TEAM. SAINTS IN A BLOWOUT. BUT GOOD LUCK.
Proven time and time again? Gus only started 4 games this year...he doesn't have to carry them. Saints defense is a siv, Minnys Oline dominates this one.
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