Week 3 of the preseason saw overs hit at a rate of 13 overs to 3 unders and after last nights shootout of 40-20 in favor of the saints, it is no surprise that the public is starting to realize week 3 of the preseason is a great time to bet the over. But with 91% of the public on the over for Monday Night, is it really the right bet? Lets take a closer look. December 24th 2011. The New York Jets host the New York Giants in a pivotal week 16 match-up that could have playoff implications. If anyone watches preseason as much as I do you will realize the gameplanning that goes on between teams that plan on facing each other in the regular season. Expect a whole lot of nothing as neither team will want to showcase their talent to give anything away. I expect a lot of runs, a lot of check-downs, and a whole lot of punts.
* Also the Giants TT is set at 16.5 and the Jets TT is set at 17.5 totaling 34. This shows that Vegas actually portrays this o/u at 34. By waiting till it reaches 37 or higher you are already getting at-least 3 points of value.
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Under 37? .... 5 units
Giants +10 / Under 43? .... 2 units
Score in the first 7:30 of the Game? - No .... 2 units (+105)
(The O/U is currently listed at 36 and was 35 last night. With the public pounding the hell out of the over (91%), I expect this number to reach 37 by game-time or higher. Wait until game time to bet the under as you will only get a better line.)
Pending:
Raiders Saints Over 28 / Giants +13 / Jets Giants Under 45 ... 2 units
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Yesterday: 1-0 +5.00 units
Preseason YTD: 19-9 +29.70 units