Investigating The Most Important Stat In NFL Betting
I recently got an email from an oddsmaker who I have worked with and now swap information with. He passed along a statistic to me that he has recently begun tracking. He claims that this is the single most important stat in determining who wins week to week in the NFL.
What is the stat? Passing Yards? Rushing Yards? Turnover Ratio?
No, no and no.
The oddsmaker in discussion has found that the single most important stat in predicting the winning team in the NFL is Pass Yards Per Attempt.
Disappointed?
I know it may not seem like the most exciting stat, and some of you may have never heard about it before. For those of you who have heard about it, you more then likely have not paid attention to it. When I received his email, I admit, I was very sceptical. I did not believe the results he was boasting, but sure enough after researching myself, I found out that this is amazingly accurate in predicting the winning team.
So far this season, the team who has more Pass Yards Per Attempt has gone…
38-10 (.791%) ATS +$2,700 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME) 42-6 (.875%) SU +$4,125 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)
Pretty incredible stuff. So far though, these numbers are well below pace of last season.
410-102 (.798%) ATS +$29,780 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME) 500-12 (.976%) SU +$64,450 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)
I have yet to back track another year as I was unable to find accurate moneylines for the games in question. I must admit that these numbers are absolutely mind blowing. Now I have been questioning how this could possibly be. For one, the NFL has become a very pass happy league. More passers are on pace to break all time records then ever before. In the first three weeks there have been numerous passing records shattered. The NFL has somewhat turned into a CFL pass first type league. Since the style of play is so vastly different in present day NFL, it would make sense that the team gaining more yards per pass would have an easier time moving the ball down the field and a easier time scoring the football.
Looking at the wins so far this season in which this stat has reigned true is truly amazing to me. Buffalo (+300) over New England in Week Three. Tennessee (+210) over Baltimore in Week Two. New York Giants (+350) over Philadelphia in Week Three. How about the biggest difference in Yards Per Pass Attempt? Detroit +8.2 YPPA against Kansas City in Week Two. Sure enough, this was the biggest blow-out so far this season (Detroit 48 Kansas City 3).
Now obviously there is no way to simply bet your money pregame on the team which will have a better YPPA, but this is a factor to definitely think about next time your placing a bet. Here is a list of the games this week involving some of the best YPPA to date this season.
Top Five:
#1 New England (9.9) -4 at. #17 Oakland (7.0) #2 Dallas (8.7) -1 vs. #7 Detroit (8.1) #3 Green Bay -12.5 (8.6) vs. #25 Denver (5.7) #4 Houston -3.5 (8.6) vs. #5 Pittsburgh (8.4)
Upset Pick:
Arizona +1 vs. New York. Arizona and New York have identical YPPA so far this season at 7.9. However, at home Arizona averages 10.9 (1st Overall) while New York goes for just 6.8 on the road (22nd overall). Factor this in with the massive let down situation vs. the get up game for Arizona, you may be in luck with the Cardinals this weekend.
Biggest Difference:
Green Bay -12.5 vs. Denver. Green Bay holds the biggest advantage this week over an opponent. Not only is Green Bay 23 spots higher in the YPPA standings, but they hold the biggest difference in YPPA (3.0). At home this season Green Bay has averaged 8.5 YPPA. Denver on the road has gone for just 4.4 a difference of 4.1 YPPA. Don’t be surprised if the Packers run up the scoreboard against the woeful Broncos this weekend.
I am not basing my wagers solely on this by any means, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on and maybe eventually something to factor into your weekly handicapping.
Investigating The Most Important Stat In NFL Betting
I recently got an email from an oddsmaker who I have worked with and now swap information with. He passed along a statistic to me that he has recently begun tracking. He claims that this is the single most important stat in determining who wins week to week in the NFL.
What is the stat? Passing Yards? Rushing Yards? Turnover Ratio?
No, no and no.
The oddsmaker in discussion has found that the single most important stat in predicting the winning team in the NFL is Pass Yards Per Attempt.
Disappointed?
I know it may not seem like the most exciting stat, and some of you may have never heard about it before. For those of you who have heard about it, you more then likely have not paid attention to it. When I received his email, I admit, I was very sceptical. I did not believe the results he was boasting, but sure enough after researching myself, I found out that this is amazingly accurate in predicting the winning team.
So far this season, the team who has more Pass Yards Per Attempt has gone…
38-10 (.791%) ATS +$2,700 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME) 42-6 (.875%) SU +$4,125 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)
Pretty incredible stuff. So far though, these numbers are well below pace of last season.
410-102 (.798%) ATS +$29,780 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME) 500-12 (.976%) SU +$64,450 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)
I have yet to back track another year as I was unable to find accurate moneylines for the games in question. I must admit that these numbers are absolutely mind blowing. Now I have been questioning how this could possibly be. For one, the NFL has become a very pass happy league. More passers are on pace to break all time records then ever before. In the first three weeks there have been numerous passing records shattered. The NFL has somewhat turned into a CFL pass first type league. Since the style of play is so vastly different in present day NFL, it would make sense that the team gaining more yards per pass would have an easier time moving the ball down the field and a easier time scoring the football.
Looking at the wins so far this season in which this stat has reigned true is truly amazing to me. Buffalo (+300) over New England in Week Three. Tennessee (+210) over Baltimore in Week Two. New York Giants (+350) over Philadelphia in Week Three. How about the biggest difference in Yards Per Pass Attempt? Detroit +8.2 YPPA against Kansas City in Week Two. Sure enough, this was the biggest blow-out so far this season (Detroit 48 Kansas City 3).
Now obviously there is no way to simply bet your money pregame on the team which will have a better YPPA, but this is a factor to definitely think about next time your placing a bet. Here is a list of the games this week involving some of the best YPPA to date this season.
Top Five:
#1 New England (9.9) -4 at. #17 Oakland (7.0) #2 Dallas (8.7) -1 vs. #7 Detroit (8.1) #3 Green Bay -12.5 (8.6) vs. #25 Denver (5.7) #4 Houston -3.5 (8.6) vs. #5 Pittsburgh (8.4)
Upset Pick:
Arizona +1 vs. New York. Arizona and New York have identical YPPA so far this season at 7.9. However, at home Arizona averages 10.9 (1st Overall) while New York goes for just 6.8 on the road (22nd overall). Factor this in with the massive let down situation vs. the get up game for Arizona, you may be in luck with the Cardinals this weekend.
Biggest Difference:
Green Bay -12.5 vs. Denver. Green Bay holds the biggest advantage this week over an opponent. Not only is Green Bay 23 spots higher in the YPPA standings, but they hold the biggest difference in YPPA (3.0). At home this season Green Bay has averaged 8.5 YPPA. Denver on the road has gone for just 4.4 a difference of 4.1 YPPA. Don’t be surprised if the Packers run up the scoreboard against the woeful Broncos this weekend.
I am not basing my wagers solely on this by any means, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on and maybe eventually something to factor into your weekly handicapping.
To add to my previous post, Buffalo didn't beat New England because they had more passing yards per attempt; they beat New England because Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions.
To add to my previous post, Buffalo didn't beat New England because they had more passing yards per attempt; they beat New England because Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions.
To add to my previous post, Buffalo didn't beat New England because they had more passing yards per attempt; they beat New England because Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions.
To add to my previous post, Buffalo didn't beat New England because they had more passing yards per attempt; they beat New England because Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions.
You're not going to convince me that TURNOVERS isn't the single most important stat.
It is.
I am not saying that this is more important then turnovers in the game of football. I am saying that this is most likely the only stat besides most points scored per game (obviously) that shows these kind of results in terms of BETTING the NFL. When it comes to wagering, I believe that this is the most important, and it shows in the results. Although the winner of the turnover margin is probably a positive return, it is no where near that of pass yards per attempt.
You're not going to convince me that TURNOVERS isn't the single most important stat.
It is.
I am not saying that this is more important then turnovers in the game of football. I am saying that this is most likely the only stat besides most points scored per game (obviously) that shows these kind of results in terms of BETTING the NFL. When it comes to wagering, I believe that this is the most important, and it shows in the results. Although the winner of the turnover margin is probably a positive return, it is no where near that of pass yards per attempt.
I am not saying that this is more important then turnovers in the game of football. I am saying that this is most likely the only stat besides most points scored per game (obviously) that shows these kind of results in terms of BETTING the NFL. When it comes to wagering, I believe that this is the most important, and it shows in the results. Although the winner of the turnover margin is probably a positive return, it is no where near that of pass yards per attempt.
I get what you're saying. I'm saying I don't agree with you
I am not saying that this is more important then turnovers in the game of football. I am saying that this is most likely the only stat besides most points scored per game (obviously) that shows these kind of results in terms of BETTING the NFL. When it comes to wagering, I believe that this is the most important, and it shows in the results. Although the winner of the turnover margin is probably a positive return, it is no where near that of pass yards per attempt.
I get what you're saying. I'm saying I don't agree with you
So unnecessary for all the stupid comments. The guy is simply trying to deliver some worthwhile information and help people and out come all the haters. There are so many other people on this site that you could bash for acting like children or trying to pimp their tout websites, why hate on someone who is actually trying to present useful information and help people? Good info VegasJack, I will def keep that stat in mind while capping my games this weekend.
So unnecessary for all the stupid comments. The guy is simply trying to deliver some worthwhile information and help people and out come all the haters. There are so many other people on this site that you could bash for acting like children or trying to pimp their tout websites, why hate on someone who is actually trying to present useful information and help people? Good info VegasJack, I will def keep that stat in mind while capping my games this weekend.
So unnecessary for all the stupid comments. The guy is simply trying to deliver some worthwhile information and help people and out come all the haters. There are so many other people on this site that you could bash for acting like children or trying to pimp their tout websites, why hate on someone who is actually trying to present useful information and help people? Good info VegasJack, I will def keep that stat in mind while capping my games this weekend.
The the problem with ignorant people around here is that they can't decipher discussion/debate from "hating" or "bashing"
So unnecessary for all the stupid comments. The guy is simply trying to deliver some worthwhile information and help people and out come all the haters. There are so many other people on this site that you could bash for acting like children or trying to pimp their tout websites, why hate on someone who is actually trying to present useful information and help people? Good info VegasJack, I will def keep that stat in mind while capping my games this weekend.
The the problem with ignorant people around here is that they can't decipher discussion/debate from "hating" or "bashing"
Why don't you both just agree that Yards Per Pass Attempt is a very useful stat and other stats equal it in importance?
Not negating its importance, but to say that it is more important than turnover differential is to ignore the single most fundemental truth in the NFL.
Why don't you both just agree that Yards Per Pass Attempt is a very useful stat and other stats equal it in importance?
Not negating its importance, but to say that it is more important than turnover differential is to ignore the single most fundemental truth in the NFL.
I understand what both of you are saying (Jack & Niner). Once the game is over usually the team that wins the TO battle would have won the game. The problem is you can't predict that. Some teams may turn the ball over more but it isn't something you can anticipate. When looking at two teams you will have a better idea what team will have the higher passing yds per attempt.
I understand what both of you are saying (Jack & Niner). Once the game is over usually the team that wins the TO battle would have won the game. The problem is you can't predict that. Some teams may turn the ball over more but it isn't something you can anticipate. When looking at two teams you will have a better idea what team will have the higher passing yds per attempt.
I understand what both of you are saying (Jack & Niner). Once the game is over usually the team that wins the TO battle would have won the game. The problem is you can't predict that. Some teams may turn the ball over more but it isn't something you can anticipate. When looking at two teams you will have a better idea what team will have the higher passing yds per attempt.
1. You are correct; nobody knows exactly what will happen until the game is over.
2. You can only judge on what is more probable of happening. As the season goes on, we do see teams who protect and, conversely, turn the ball over. Teams that are prone to turnovers are more LIKELY to turn the ball over more in a given game, and thus are more probable to lose based on this. On the other side of the coin, anything can happen on any Sunday, so just as in all sports, we can only use any of this information as PART of our decision when assessing all aspects of a game.
I understand what both of you are saying (Jack & Niner). Once the game is over usually the team that wins the TO battle would have won the game. The problem is you can't predict that. Some teams may turn the ball over more but it isn't something you can anticipate. When looking at two teams you will have a better idea what team will have the higher passing yds per attempt.
1. You are correct; nobody knows exactly what will happen until the game is over.
2. You can only judge on what is more probable of happening. As the season goes on, we do see teams who protect and, conversely, turn the ball over. Teams that are prone to turnovers are more LIKELY to turn the ball over more in a given game, and thus are more probable to lose based on this. On the other side of the coin, anything can happen on any Sunday, so just as in all sports, we can only use any of this information as PART of our decision when assessing all aspects of a game.
And knowing who will have the more yards per attempt is no different than knowing who will have more turnovers.
To add - Here are the 2010 NFL leaders in turnover differential:
1. New England 2. Green Bay 3. Pittsburgh 4. Atlanta 5. Philadelphia 6. Tampa 7. NY Jets 8. Baltimore 9. Kansas City 10. St. Louis
Not surprising all were playoff teams other than Tampa and St. Louis. So please don't say turnovers aren't the single most important predictor of wins and losses.
And knowing who will have the more yards per attempt is no different than knowing who will have more turnovers.
To add - Here are the 2010 NFL leaders in turnover differential:
1. New England 2. Green Bay 3. Pittsburgh 4. Atlanta 5. Philadelphia 6. Tampa 7. NY Jets 8. Baltimore 9. Kansas City 10. St. Louis
Not surprising all were playoff teams other than Tampa and St. Louis. So please don't say turnovers aren't the single most important predictor of wins and losses.
Now take the top 10 teams in yards per attempt and compare. If you can do better than 8 out of 10 playoff teams (including both super bowl teams in the top 3) then that stat is a better predictor.
Now take the top 10 teams in yards per attempt and compare. If you can do better than 8 out of 10 playoff teams (including both super bowl teams in the top 3) then that stat is a better predictor.
Find the top 10 teams in YPPA, the top 10 in turnover differential and compare combined ATS record of each list. Do this for last year or last 5, 10 years. Then you know the more important stat for BETTING. It doesn't matter if 8 out of 10 are playoff teams if they have a weak ATS record.
Find the top 10 teams in YPPA, the top 10 in turnover differential and compare combined ATS record of each list. Do this for last year or last 5, 10 years. Then you know the more important stat for BETTING. It doesn't matter if 8 out of 10 are playoff teams if they have a weak ATS record.
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