This is my first serious attempt at handicapping the playoffs . I usually stop in the late regular season , and just consider ideas or just take the higher seed .
One of my earlier criteria is which teams has the better defense , then road victory / performance , which team is better overall . Then I will look for red flags and weakness team x has in that game situation .
Chiefs Colts - 2.5
The Chiefs have the better defense , and a pretty good road record . I think the Chiefs are also the overall better team with the better coach . The Chiefs offense potential improved in the second half . I think Reid's playoff experience and veteran Chiefs players will avoid the letdown if they get behind . The playoffs are a win or go home , so some teams might give up too quickly if they get behind or lose composure .
Some red flags for the Colts I will look into are overall point margin , rushing potential , not having Reggie Wayne . A factor worth discussing is the Colts beating other playoff teams . The counter is what did the Colts do the second half . They got blown out by a lesser team at home ( Rams ) and barely beat the Titans . The Colts did beat the Chiefs recently , but I think things may average out with the Chiefs winning in the second matchup so the series goes 1-1 . It is difficult to beat a better team twice .
Next I consider probabilities and possibilities
Probability Colts blow out the Chiefs - low Probability Chiefs blow out the Colts - slightly better but still low Both teams have a good probability of winning . For the Colts to cover they just have to win by a field goal . I am leaning towards the Chiefs , but I think the Colts are an ok bet . I dont know if I will be putting money on this game .
Teamrankings and accuscore have slight leans towards the Colts .
Saints Eagles - 2.5
I am a casual fan of the Saints , but I think this is a bad situation for them . I think there is a significant chance the Saints lose by at least a touchdown , maybe even get blown out .
Chargers Bengals - 7
Bengals better defense , and very good home record . Chargers up and down performance . Lean Bengals . If I make a wager , it will probably be on this game . I may marginalize the line by betting the moneyline . The Chargers do have enough firepower for a backdoor cover , and the rules favoring the offense may be a cover factor also .
Niners Packers 2.5
I think this not a good matchup for the Packers . I am leaning towards the Niners , and this is my second choice for a possible wager . I may go ats , as I think the Niners have a good shot of winning by a field goal to cover . I will look into the interception factor for both teams .
This is my first serious attempt at handicapping the playoffs . I usually stop in the late regular season , and just consider ideas or just take the higher seed .
One of my earlier criteria is which teams has the better defense , then road victory / performance , which team is better overall . Then I will look for red flags and weakness team x has in that game situation .
Chiefs Colts - 2.5
The Chiefs have the better defense , and a pretty good road record . I think the Chiefs are also the overall better team with the better coach . The Chiefs offense potential improved in the second half . I think Reid's playoff experience and veteran Chiefs players will avoid the letdown if they get behind . The playoffs are a win or go home , so some teams might give up too quickly if they get behind or lose composure .
Some red flags for the Colts I will look into are overall point margin , rushing potential , not having Reggie Wayne . A factor worth discussing is the Colts beating other playoff teams . The counter is what did the Colts do the second half . They got blown out by a lesser team at home ( Rams ) and barely beat the Titans . The Colts did beat the Chiefs recently , but I think things may average out with the Chiefs winning in the second matchup so the series goes 1-1 . It is difficult to beat a better team twice .
Next I consider probabilities and possibilities
Probability Colts blow out the Chiefs - low Probability Chiefs blow out the Colts - slightly better but still low Both teams have a good probability of winning . For the Colts to cover they just have to win by a field goal . I am leaning towards the Chiefs , but I think the Colts are an ok bet . I dont know if I will be putting money on this game .
Teamrankings and accuscore have slight leans towards the Colts .
Saints Eagles - 2.5
I am a casual fan of the Saints , but I think this is a bad situation for them . I think there is a significant chance the Saints lose by at least a touchdown , maybe even get blown out .
Chargers Bengals - 7
Bengals better defense , and very good home record . Chargers up and down performance . Lean Bengals . If I make a wager , it will probably be on this game . I may marginalize the line by betting the moneyline . The Chargers do have enough firepower for a backdoor cover , and the rules favoring the offense may be a cover factor also .
Niners Packers 2.5
I think this not a good matchup for the Packers . I am leaning towards the Niners , and this is my second choice for a possible wager . I may go ats , as I think the Niners have a good shot of winning by a field goal to cover . I will look into the interception factor for both teams .
excellent read..thanks...it bolsters a strategy i have taken to tease the chiefs eagles chargers and niners in 10 point teasers all keyed to florida st. which becomes a defacto pk....the only weak link there being the chargers but talk about playing loose...rivers will sling the ball with abandon realizing his defense offers scant hope...not to mention how happy are chargers NOT to see patriots in a playoff game.....yet .......heh...... BOL
excellent read..thanks...it bolsters a strategy i have taken to tease the chiefs eagles chargers and niners in 10 point teasers all keyed to florida st. which becomes a defacto pk....the only weak link there being the chargers but talk about playing loose...rivers will sling the ball with abandon realizing his defense offers scant hope...not to mention how happy are chargers NOT to see patriots in a playoff game.....yet .......heh...... BOL
For those in the well I wont be the only one losing on this bet , I put a moneyline wager on the Bengals . I think its the best overall bell , even compared to other side bets , teasers and parlays .
Working down the card , the next best bet would be Niners ats . After that Eagles ats . I am not objective since I like the Saints . Part of me wants the Saints to win , and the other part of me wants them to lose , to force them to make adjustments , and punish them for losing to Rams the way they did . I dont know if things would have been different if they beat the Rams , but the Saints dug themselves into a hole , and throw in the Pats loss also .
I have put the Chiefs Colts game in the whatever happens category . If I had to make a bet , I would go with the Chiefs , but I dont , so I wont .
For those in the well I wont be the only one losing on this bet , I put a moneyline wager on the Bengals . I think its the best overall bell , even compared to other side bets , teasers and parlays .
Working down the card , the next best bet would be Niners ats . After that Eagles ats . I am not objective since I like the Saints . Part of me wants the Saints to win , and the other part of me wants them to lose , to force them to make adjustments , and punish them for losing to Rams the way they did . I dont know if things would have been different if they beat the Rams , but the Saints dug themselves into a hole , and throw in the Pats loss also .
I have put the Chiefs Colts game in the whatever happens category . If I had to make a bet , I would go with the Chiefs , but I dont , so I wont .
For those posting plays , please give at least one reason .
I believe the Niners have beaten the packers last 3 out of 4 . The Niners have a good defense , which can travel . Aaron Rodgers might have a little rust , or isnt prepared to play a strong defense , which the Bears werent . I think the Niners can still gash GB from time to time like in the past , and also switch to pocket passing just enough for a zig zag style , and then go back to zone read thingy .
It wouldnt surprise me if GB won , Right now I have it as Niners wth a 55.32781 % chance that SF will win .
For those posting plays , please give at least one reason .
I believe the Niners have beaten the packers last 3 out of 4 . The Niners have a good defense , which can travel . Aaron Rodgers might have a little rust , or isnt prepared to play a strong defense , which the Bears werent . I think the Niners can still gash GB from time to time like in the past , and also switch to pocket passing just enough for a zig zag style , and then go back to zone read thingy .
It wouldnt surprise me if GB won , Right now I have it as Niners wth a 55.32781 % chance that SF will win .
As a New Orleans native, you might expect me to pick the Saints. I think they are an overrated finesse team, with an even larger home field bias than Seattle. The weather will be brutal. And I think Philly is capable of lining up and dominating from scrimmage. Smash mouth football prevails. I also like Chip Kelly as a coach over Sean Payton.
As a New Orleans native, you might expect me to pick the Saints. I think they are an overrated finesse team, with an even larger home field bias than Seattle. The weather will be brutal. And I think Philly is capable of lining up and dominating from scrimmage. Smash mouth football prevails. I also like Chip Kelly as a coach over Sean Payton.
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