dude! you have the easiest and most obvious hedge opportunity ever... don't fuck it up!
fuck up #1 would be listening to anyone who says "NEVER HEDGE"... every situation has a different way to approach it... NEVER SAY NEVER!
fuck up #2 is not hedging this bet...
simple:
step 1: Jets ML today... either $50 or $100... your choice
step 2: ML whoever the Colts play in the Super Bowl, if the Colts win today... the Colts will 100% for sure be favored, as long as Manning isn't in a full body cast...
personally, i say go $50 today, and then double up in the next game... at least you guarantee that you will win a little bit of money...
dude! you have the easiest and most obvious hedge opportunity ever... don't fuck it up!
fuck up #1 would be listening to anyone who says "NEVER HEDGE"... every situation has a different way to approach it... NEVER SAY NEVER!
fuck up #2 is not hedging this bet...
simple:
step 1: Jets ML today... either $50 or $100... your choice
step 2: ML whoever the Colts play in the Super Bowl, if the Colts win today... the Colts will 100% for sure be favored, as long as Manning isn't in a full body cast...
personally, i say go $50 today, and then double up in the next game... at least you guarantee that you will win a little bit of money...
exactly... don't listen to idiots who are just in it for the thrill of the gamble... these people are not your allies around here...
money is money! if you want to guarantee a profit, then you are something that gamblers don't understand... SMART!
exactly... don't listen to idiots who are just in it for the thrill of the gamble... these people are not your allies around here...
money is money! if you want to guarantee a profit, then you are something that gamblers don't understand... SMART!
dude! you have the easiest and most obvious hedge opportunity ever... don't fuck it up!
fuck up #1 would be listening to anyone who says "NEVER HEDGE"... every situation has a different way to approach it... NEVER SAY NEVER!
fuck up #2 is not hedging this bet...
simple:
step 1: Jets ML today... either $50 or $100... your choice
step 2: ML whoever the Colts play in the Super Bowl, if the Colts win today... the Colts will 100% for sure be favored, as long as Manning isn't in a full body cast...
personally, i say go $50 today, and then double up in the next game... at least you guarantee that you will win a little bit of money...
dude! you have the easiest and most obvious hedge opportunity ever... don't fuck it up!
fuck up #1 would be listening to anyone who says "NEVER HEDGE"... every situation has a different way to approach it... NEVER SAY NEVER!
fuck up #2 is not hedging this bet...
simple:
step 1: Jets ML today... either $50 or $100... your choice
step 2: ML whoever the Colts play in the Super Bowl, if the Colts win today... the Colts will 100% for sure be favored, as long as Manning isn't in a full body cast...
personally, i say go $50 today, and then double up in the next game... at least you guarantee that you will win a little bit of money...
exactly... don't listen to idiots who are just in it for the thrill of the gamble... these people are not your allies around here...
money is money! if you want to guarantee a profit, then you are something that gamblers don't understand... SMART!
Oh dear.
exactly... don't listen to idiots who are just in it for the thrill of the gamble... these people are not your allies around here...
money is money! if you want to guarantee a profit, then you are something that gamblers don't understand... SMART!
Oh dear.
Yeah - bet on the jets today, and the colts win today but lose the SB.
Great.
come on Van... don't act like you're that clueless... Colts will be favored by 3-6 points in the Super Bowl... very easy final hedge...
Yeah - bet on the jets today, and the colts win today but lose the SB.
Great.
come on Van... don't act like you're that clueless... Colts will be favored by 3-6 points in the Super Bowl... very easy final hedge...
this comes down to a very simple concept: gambling vs. investing...
you made a smart investment... some will say "ride it out, you're ahread!"... yeah, that's true... but just like investing, you want to sell high... that's where you are now... the real odds on the Colts right now are 1:1... you have them at 10:1...
SELL!
you douchebags saying i need to take a probability class... first off, i am in a league you don't understand when it comes to probability and statistics... DO NOT GO THERE!
this is not a probability and statistics issue... it is a basic math issue... if he wants to cash out his bet now, he can do that... if he wants to ride it out and risk WHAT HE HAS ALREADY WON... he can do that, too...
but you guys who act all fucking high and mighty preaching to NEVER HEDGE... that's bravado bullshit that isn't based in mathematical reality...
this comes down to a very simple concept: gambling vs. investing...
you made a smart investment... some will say "ride it out, you're ahread!"... yeah, that's true... but just like investing, you want to sell high... that's where you are now... the real odds on the Colts right now are 1:1... you have them at 10:1...
SELL!
you douchebags saying i need to take a probability class... first off, i am in a league you don't understand when it comes to probability and statistics... DO NOT GO THERE!
this is not a probability and statistics issue... it is a basic math issue... if he wants to cash out his bet now, he can do that... if he wants to ride it out and risk WHAT HE HAS ALREADY WON... he can do that, too...
but you guys who act all fucking high and mighty preaching to NEVER HEDGE... that's bravado bullshit that isn't based in mathematical reality...
don't act like that example is comparable to this one... if this is what you mean by "it's about probability", then you don't grasp the finer points of "probability"... there is clearly a line where this type of reasoning turns to shit...
you like gambling, that's all well and good... doesn't mean other people are stupid because they decide to take the money and run...
don't act like that example is comparable to this one... if this is what you mean by "it's about probability", then you don't grasp the finer points of "probability"... there is clearly a line where this type of reasoning turns to shit...
you like gambling, that's all well and good... doesn't mean other people are stupid because they decide to take the money and run...
this comes down to a very simple concept: gambling vs. investing...
you made a smart investment... some will say "ride it out, you're ahread!"... yeah, that's true... but just like investing, you want to sell high... that's where you are now... the real odds on the Colts right now are 1:1... you have them at 10:1...
SELL!
you douchebags saying i need to take a probability class... first off, i am in a league you don't understand when it comes to probability and statistics... DO NOT GO THERE!
this is not a probability and statistics issue... it is a basic math issue... if he wants to cash out his bet now, he can do that... if he wants to ride it out and risk WHAT HE HAS ALREADY WON... he can do that, too...
but you guys who act all fucking high and mighty preaching to NEVER HEDGE... that's bravado bullshit that isn't based in mathematical reality...
Sir -
You are missing the point entriely, and your "elevated level of understanding of probability and statistics" are failing you here.
He has a current present value of his original bet. If he hedges HE WILL BE UNDERPAID FOR THAT PRESENT VALUE.
It is a very simple concept - but it is counterintuitive - so mouthbreathers like you usually dont understand, and get very combative when they are presented with the mathematical evidence that they are wrong. It doesnt make senses to you, so you aruge against math. Losing battle pal.
Bottom line- he is getting UNDERPAID for his current position by hedging. Think about it, read this again - before you respond please - you are embarassing yourself.
this comes down to a very simple concept: gambling vs. investing...
you made a smart investment... some will say "ride it out, you're ahread!"... yeah, that's true... but just like investing, you want to sell high... that's where you are now... the real odds on the Colts right now are 1:1... you have them at 10:1...
SELL!
you douchebags saying i need to take a probability class... first off, i am in a league you don't understand when it comes to probability and statistics... DO NOT GO THERE!
this is not a probability and statistics issue... it is a basic math issue... if he wants to cash out his bet now, he can do that... if he wants to ride it out and risk WHAT HE HAS ALREADY WON... he can do that, too...
but you guys who act all fucking high and mighty preaching to NEVER HEDGE... that's bravado bullshit that isn't based in mathematical reality...
Sir -
You are missing the point entriely, and your "elevated level of understanding of probability and statistics" are failing you here.
He has a current present value of his original bet. If he hedges HE WILL BE UNDERPAID FOR THAT PRESENT VALUE.
It is a very simple concept - but it is counterintuitive - so mouthbreathers like you usually dont understand, and get very combative when they are presented with the mathematical evidence that they are wrong. It doesnt make senses to you, so you aruge against math. Losing battle pal.
Bottom line- he is getting UNDERPAID for his current position by hedging. Think about it, read this again - before you respond please - you are embarassing yourself.
Yeah - bet on the jets today, and the colts win today but lose the SB.
Great.
Yeah - bet on the jets today, and the colts win today but lose the SB.
Great.
I would not lay anything more than $50 on the Jets ML, If they win, then you make out with $150 minus the $100 wager from your future bet. If the Jets Lose, you are only out $50 from your potential $1,000 possible profit which you could in turn split between both Superbowl finalists, if that is your thing.
I have the Jets at 250-1(For $10) and I don't think they have a chance today.
I would not lay anything more than $50 on the Jets ML, If they win, then you make out with $150 minus the $100 wager from your future bet. If the Jets Lose, you are only out $50 from your potential $1,000 possible profit which you could in turn split between both Superbowl finalists, if that is your thing.
I have the Jets at 250-1(For $10) and I don't think they have a chance today.
don't act like that example is comparable to this one... if this is what you mean by "it's about probability", then you don't grasp the finer points of "probability"... there is clearly a line where this type of reasoning turns to shit...
you like gambling, that's all well and good... doesn't mean other people are stupid because they decide to take the money and run...
I think the term stupid could be used for someone who declares themself a probability expert, but cant understand the most simple of probabilty concepts.
Let me try in a way you might understand.....
Patriots are beating the Raiders 41-7 at the half. You have the Pats -3. You bet 110 to win 100. Someone offers you 140 for that bet (your original bet + 30 dollars profit). Do you take it?
If you dont take it, why not? Someone is OFFERING YOU GUARANTEED PROFIT!!! According to you and your advanced probability mind, you should take this!!!
But of course you wouldnt take it, because you are being UNDERPAID FOR YOUR CURRENT POSITION. It isnt because you like to "gamble" as you assert above, it is because as an investor (as you so badly mischaracterize above) you understand that you are being UNDERPAID.
See if you can follow that, and then let us know how a real probabilty and statistics expert can argue with present value calculations.
don't act like that example is comparable to this one... if this is what you mean by "it's about probability", then you don't grasp the finer points of "probability"... there is clearly a line where this type of reasoning turns to shit...
you like gambling, that's all well and good... doesn't mean other people are stupid because they decide to take the money and run...
I think the term stupid could be used for someone who declares themself a probability expert, but cant understand the most simple of probabilty concepts.
Let me try in a way you might understand.....
Patriots are beating the Raiders 41-7 at the half. You have the Pats -3. You bet 110 to win 100. Someone offers you 140 for that bet (your original bet + 30 dollars profit). Do you take it?
If you dont take it, why not? Someone is OFFERING YOU GUARANTEED PROFIT!!! According to you and your advanced probability mind, you should take this!!!
But of course you wouldnt take it, because you are being UNDERPAID FOR YOUR CURRENT POSITION. It isnt because you like to "gamble" as you assert above, it is because as an investor (as you so badly mischaracterize above) you understand that you are being UNDERPAID.
See if you can follow that, and then let us know how a real probabilty and statistics expert can argue with present value calculations.
Sir -
You are missing the point entriely, and your "elevated level of understanding of probability and statistics" are failing you here.
He has a current present value of his original bet. If he hedges HE WILL BE UNDERPAID FOR THAT PRESENT VALUE.
It is a very simple concept - but it is counterintuitive - so mouthbreathers like you usually dont understand, and get very combative when they are presented with the mathematical evidence that they are wrong. It doesnt make senses to you, so you aruge against math. Losing battle pal.
Bottom line- he is getting UNDERPAID for his current position by hedging. Think about it, read this again - before you respond please - you are embarassing yourself.
Van... that is BULLSHIT!
you are acting like you don't understand what i am saying... but that's crap! you know exactly what i am saying...
stop fucking talking about probability and statistics... YOU are the one embarrassing yourself, because this issue is NOT ABOUT THAT!
it is about whether or not he wants to cash out of a bet that has already made him a profit... i know what the expected value is... but maybe the mother fucker doesn't want to ride out the whole fucking thing when he can cash out some of it now...
THAT IS THE ISSUE!
this isn't about probability and statistics... stop fucking saying it is!
Sir -
You are missing the point entriely, and your "elevated level of understanding of probability and statistics" are failing you here.
He has a current present value of his original bet. If he hedges HE WILL BE UNDERPAID FOR THAT PRESENT VALUE.
It is a very simple concept - but it is counterintuitive - so mouthbreathers like you usually dont understand, and get very combative when they are presented with the mathematical evidence that they are wrong. It doesnt make senses to you, so you aruge against math. Losing battle pal.
Bottom line- he is getting UNDERPAID for his current position by hedging. Think about it, read this again - before you respond please - you are embarassing yourself.
Van... that is BULLSHIT!
you are acting like you don't understand what i am saying... but that's crap! you know exactly what i am saying...
stop fucking talking about probability and statistics... YOU are the one embarrassing yourself, because this issue is NOT ABOUT THAT!
it is about whether or not he wants to cash out of a bet that has already made him a profit... i know what the expected value is... but maybe the mother fucker doesn't want to ride out the whole fucking thing when he can cash out some of it now...
THAT IS THE ISSUE!
this isn't about probability and statistics... stop fucking saying it is!
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