i meant to post this last night but given that people don't seem to understand this two score, late situation works, i'll post it now.
arians made the right decision. you only kick the field goal in two
situations. if you are running out of time, i.e. there are only maybe
30 seconds or less on the clock as you are driving or you aren't getting
near the end zone. there was time for that td drive and an onside kick
and to get closer to field goal range. and they were driving and
obviously got very close to the end zone with time left.
secondly,
gruden is an idiot. teams should always try for the TD first down 11
for two reasons. one, the TD is obviously harder so if you are in a
better position to get it first, you try to get it. secondly, and many
coaches are too dumb to understand this, you need a TD and a two point
conversion. you need to know sooner rather than later if you are going
to make that two point conversion. because if you don't make it, a
field goal is obviously meaningless and if you kicked the field goal
first without knowing if it actually helps you, you wasted that time and
that scoring opportunity.
so, when you are down 15 or 11 late
and you need two scores and one two point covnersion, you should always
try to get the td and two point conversion first so you know what you
need for the second score and have more time to get it. basic
football.
i meant to post this last night but given that people don't seem to understand this two score, late situation works, i'll post it now.
arians made the right decision. you only kick the field goal in two
situations. if you are running out of time, i.e. there are only maybe
30 seconds or less on the clock as you are driving or you aren't getting
near the end zone. there was time for that td drive and an onside kick
and to get closer to field goal range. and they were driving and
obviously got very close to the end zone with time left.
secondly,
gruden is an idiot. teams should always try for the TD first down 11
for two reasons. one, the TD is obviously harder so if you are in a
better position to get it first, you try to get it. secondly, and many
coaches are too dumb to understand this, you need a TD and a two point
conversion. you need to know sooner rather than later if you are going
to make that two point conversion. because if you don't make it, a
field goal is obviously meaningless and if you kicked the field goal
first without knowing if it actually helps you, you wasted that time and
that scoring opportunity.
so, when you are down 15 or 11 late
and you need two scores and one two point covnersion, you should always
try to get the td and two point conversion first so you know what you
need for the second score and have more time to get it. basic
football.
Whether you agree with Gruden or not, it was funny listening to him trying not to throw Arians under the bus. He was choosing his words so carefully when you could tell he wanted to call him an idiot.
Not saying I agree with Gruden, just saying it was funny listening to him walk the tightrope with his comments.
Whether you agree with Gruden or not, it was funny listening to him trying not to throw Arians under the bus. He was choosing his words so carefully when you could tell he wanted to call him an idiot.
Not saying I agree with Gruden, just saying it was funny listening to him walk the tightrope with his comments.
You mean Sean McDonough? I agree, I think Tirico is a little better, but McDonough has been considered a top play by play guy for many years in various sports, that's how he got this job.
You mean Sean McDonough? I agree, I think Tirico is a little better, but McDonough has been considered a top play by play guy for many years in various sports, that's how he got this job.
yeah, gruden is funny but it gets old over 3 hours. i often mute the monday night game and listen to music.
ogh, yes the only way you kick the field goal, especially down 11 rather than 9 or 10, is if you have a 4th and long and/or time is running out. last night was about as clear as it gets that you don't kick the field goal early. down 11, decent amount of time and they were moving the ball well.
yeah, gruden is funny but it gets old over 3 hours. i often mute the monday night game and listen to music.
ogh, yes the only way you kick the field goal, especially down 11 rather than 9 or 10, is if you have a 4th and long and/or time is running out. last night was about as clear as it gets that you don't kick the field goal early. down 11, decent amount of time and they were moving the ball well.
Gruden could have a job in 5 seconds if he wanted one. Amazing how clueless yet arrogant some of you are. Plus the OP a covers poster calling gruden an idiot is just as laughable.
If either of you ever need a book shoot me a pm I'll gladly book your action. Guys like you are just the people we want betting
Gruden could have a job in 5 seconds if he wanted one. Amazing how clueless yet arrogant some of you are. Plus the OP a covers poster calling gruden an idiot is just as laughable.
If either of you ever need a book shoot me a pm I'll gladly book your action. Guys like you are just the people we want betting
Gruden could have a job in 5 seconds if he wanted one. Amazing how clueless yet arrogant some of you are. Plus the OP a covers poster calling gruden an idiot is just as laughable.
If either of you ever need a book shoot me a pm I'll gladly book your action. Guys like you are just the people we want betting
counterarguments to our points are conspicuously absent in your post.
when i say gruden is an idiot, i'm obviously referring to him going on and on last night about arians kicking the field goal, which was stupid. otherwise, i generally ignore him after a quarter or so when his routine gets old.
finally my picks have been posted on this website with analysis for years and years. i've had one losing season during that time, as far as i can recall. i have books that seem to be more reliable than a random guy on covers, but you are welcome to fade all of my picks and see where that gets you.
Gruden could have a job in 5 seconds if he wanted one. Amazing how clueless yet arrogant some of you are. Plus the OP a covers poster calling gruden an idiot is just as laughable.
If either of you ever need a book shoot me a pm I'll gladly book your action. Guys like you are just the people we want betting
counterarguments to our points are conspicuously absent in your post.
when i say gruden is an idiot, i'm obviously referring to him going on and on last night about arians kicking the field goal, which was stupid. otherwise, i generally ignore him after a quarter or so when his routine gets old.
finally my picks have been posted on this website with analysis for years and years. i've had one losing season during that time, as far as i can recall. i have books that seem to be more reliable than a random guy on covers, but you are welcome to fade all of my picks and see where that gets you.
It was a fine decision until it was 4th down and goal. At that point ya kick the FG and get the 3. Then try for the onside kick. If you don't covert on the 4th down and come up empty game over. With an FG you extend the game. It's as simple as that.
It was a fine decision until it was 4th down and goal. At that point ya kick the FG and get the 3. Then try for the onside kick. If you don't covert on the 4th down and come up empty game over. With an FG you extend the game. It's as simple as that.
It was a fine decision until it was 4th down and goal. At that point ya kick the FG and get the 3. Then try for the onside kick. If you don't covert on the 4th down and come up empty game over. With an FG you extend the game. It's as simple as that.
i suppose there's an argument for that but there are two problems. one, the TD is obviusly much harder to get. what are the chances the cardinals will have a better opportunity to get the much harder score than a shot from the 3 yard line?
and two, they don't just need a TD, they are need a two point conversion. that's a fact. a field goal might be meaningless. they don't know whether a field goal is meaningless until they know if they get the two point conversion. so, to kick a field goal at the 3 that becomes meaningless if they later miss the two point conversion is to waste a play and, in this case, what is likely their best opportunity to score the td by far.
that's why, absent a 4th and long or very little time left, it's going to be better to go for the td first or go for two first in the 15 point deficit case. you need to know earlier rather than later what you need to tie the game.
if you want to simplify it, you can ask this question: why use a scoring opportunity to kick a field goal first if a field goal might be a meaningless score?
It was a fine decision until it was 4th down and goal. At that point ya kick the FG and get the 3. Then try for the onside kick. If you don't covert on the 4th down and come up empty game over. With an FG you extend the game. It's as simple as that.
i suppose there's an argument for that but there are two problems. one, the TD is obviusly much harder to get. what are the chances the cardinals will have a better opportunity to get the much harder score than a shot from the 3 yard line?
and two, they don't just need a TD, they are need a two point conversion. that's a fact. a field goal might be meaningless. they don't know whether a field goal is meaningless until they know if they get the two point conversion. so, to kick a field goal at the 3 that becomes meaningless if they later miss the two point conversion is to waste a play and, in this case, what is likely their best opportunity to score the td by far.
that's why, absent a 4th and long or very little time left, it's going to be better to go for the td first or go for two first in the 15 point deficit case. you need to know earlier rather than later what you need to tie the game.
if you want to simplify it, you can ask this question: why use a scoring opportunity to kick a field goal first if a field goal might be a meaningless score?
How in the world was that the right decision? You need 2 scores...have to get atleast 1 to have a chance and they got none....
How can anyone claim they did the right thing?
read the posts above yours that explain it.
i've asked vanzack to come in here. maybe he disagrees with me but i doubt it. maybe he can explain it better than me.
but, again, i'll respond to your reasoning. how do you know you need two scores as you've said? or better yet, i assume you meant to say, you just need a field goal and a touchdown. your presmise is flawed because that's not necessarily true. how do you know that? you don't until you know if your two point conversion is successful.
How in the world was that the right decision? You need 2 scores...have to get atleast 1 to have a chance and they got none....
How can anyone claim they did the right thing?
read the posts above yours that explain it.
i've asked vanzack to come in here. maybe he disagrees with me but i doubt it. maybe he can explain it better than me.
but, again, i'll respond to your reasoning. how do you know you need two scores as you've said? or better yet, i assume you meant to say, you just need a field goal and a touchdown. your presmise is flawed because that's not necessarily true. how do you know that? you don't until you know if your two point conversion is successful.
How in the world was that the right decision? You need 2 scores...have to get atleast 1 to have a chance and they got none....
How can anyone claim they did the right thing?
Because, based on the success/failure of the 2 point conversion, they may need 6 or 3. The main reason is also you won't have an easier chance to score a TD than from the 3 yard line.
How in the world was that the right decision? You need 2 scores...have to get atleast 1 to have a chance and they got none....
How can anyone claim they did the right thing?
Because, based on the success/failure of the 2 point conversion, they may need 6 or 3. The main reason is also you won't have an easier chance to score a TD than from the 3 yard line.
As the game wears on and defense is on the field longer, momentum for offense builds and defense continues to grow tired. FG is positive momentum to build off.
This is why kicking sooner makes sense. Either way, you are relying on a lot going right, starting with onside being absolutely necessary as the game gets later
As the game wears on and defense is on the field longer, momentum for offense builds and defense continues to grow tired. FG is positive momentum to build off.
This is why kicking sooner makes sense. Either way, you are relying on a lot going right, starting with onside being absolutely necessary as the game gets later
Because, based on the success/failure of the 2 point conversion, they may need 6 or 3. The main reason is also you won't have an easier chance to score a TD than from the 3 yard line.
i think part of the problem is these idiot announcers always say a team needs a field goal and a TD when they are down by 11. of course, they don't know that. i checked and the historical success rate in the nfl for 2 point conversions is 48%. so, more often than not, you don't need a field goal and a TD. more than 50% of the time, on average, you need two touchdowns. so, more likely than not, that field goal is meaningless. and if you kick it from the 3, you are wasting a prime Td scoring opportunity to kick a field goal that is meaningless.
beyond that, of course it's much better to know earlier rather than later what your second score needs to be so you have more time to prepare for it.
Because, based on the success/failure of the 2 point conversion, they may need 6 or 3. The main reason is also you won't have an easier chance to score a TD than from the 3 yard line.
i think part of the problem is these idiot announcers always say a team needs a field goal and a TD when they are down by 11. of course, they don't know that. i checked and the historical success rate in the nfl for 2 point conversions is 48%. so, more often than not, you don't need a field goal and a TD. more than 50% of the time, on average, you need two touchdowns. so, more likely than not, that field goal is meaningless. and if you kick it from the 3, you are wasting a prime Td scoring opportunity to kick a field goal that is meaningless.
beyond that, of course it's much better to know earlier rather than later what your second score needs to be so you have more time to prepare for it.
i've asked vanzack to come in here. maybe he disagrees with me but i doubt it. maybe he can explain it better than me.
but, again, i'll respond to your reasoning. how do you know you need two scores as you've said? or better yet, i assume you meant to say, you just need a field goal and a touchdown. your presmise is flawed because that's not necessarily true. how do you know that? you don't until you know if your two point conversion is successful.
the thread above explains the rest.
Well....what gives you the best chance of winning?
Kicking a field goal and needing a TD and 2 pnt try....or not scoring at all and wasting another minute trying to get the TD
i've asked vanzack to come in here. maybe he disagrees with me but i doubt it. maybe he can explain it better than me.
but, again, i'll respond to your reasoning. how do you know you need two scores as you've said? or better yet, i assume you meant to say, you just need a field goal and a touchdown. your presmise is flawed because that's not necessarily true. how do you know that? you don't until you know if your two point conversion is successful.
the thread above explains the rest.
Well....what gives you the best chance of winning?
Kicking a field goal and needing a TD and 2 pnt try....or not scoring at all and wasting another minute trying to get the TD
i suppose there's an argument for that but there are two problems. one, the TD is obviusly much harder to get. what are the chances the cardinals will have a better opportunity to get the much harder score than a shot from the 3 yard line?
and two, they don't just need a TD, they are need a two point conversion. that's a fact. a field goal might be meaningless. they don't know whether a field goal is meaningless until they know if they get the two point conversion. so, to kick a field goal at the 3 that becomes meaningless if they later miss the two point conversion is to waste a play and, in this case, what is likely their best opportunity to score the td by far.
that's why, absent a 4th and long or very little time left, it's going to be better to go for the td first or go for two first in the 15 point deficit case. you need to know earlier rather than later what you need to tie the game.
if you want to simplify it, you can ask this question: why use a scoring opportunity to kick a field goal first if a field goal might be a meaningless score?
What's to say you kick the FG, get the 3. Get the onside kick, few passes to the side lines or hail marry or even PI in the endzone, anything could happen, you just don't know.
All you do know that is if you don't convert that 4th down, you literally just put a fork in extending the game. How can you argue that?
i suppose there's an argument for that but there are two problems. one, the TD is obviusly much harder to get. what are the chances the cardinals will have a better opportunity to get the much harder score than a shot from the 3 yard line?
and two, they don't just need a TD, they are need a two point conversion. that's a fact. a field goal might be meaningless. they don't know whether a field goal is meaningless until they know if they get the two point conversion. so, to kick a field goal at the 3 that becomes meaningless if they later miss the two point conversion is to waste a play and, in this case, what is likely their best opportunity to score the td by far.
that's why, absent a 4th and long or very little time left, it's going to be better to go for the td first or go for two first in the 15 point deficit case. you need to know earlier rather than later what you need to tie the game.
if you want to simplify it, you can ask this question: why use a scoring opportunity to kick a field goal first if a field goal might be a meaningless score?
What's to say you kick the FG, get the 3. Get the onside kick, few passes to the side lines or hail marry or even PI in the endzone, anything could happen, you just don't know.
All you do know that is if you don't convert that 4th down, you literally just put a fork in extending the game. How can you argue that?
Well....what gives you the best chance of winning?
Kicking a field goal and needing a TD and 2 pnt try....or not scoring at all and wasting another minute trying to get the TD
we've addressed that. it depends on the time on the clock, the down and distance and where you are on the field.
in this case, going for the TD definitely gave them the best chance of winning because there was time and they were on the 3.
again, kicking a field goal, more often than not, is completely meaningless. trying to get a TD from the 3 is not meaningless. now, you may not make it, but if the coaches could predict the future, the decision would be easier.
Well....what gives you the best chance of winning?
Kicking a field goal and needing a TD and 2 pnt try....or not scoring at all and wasting another minute trying to get the TD
we've addressed that. it depends on the time on the clock, the down and distance and where you are on the field.
in this case, going for the TD definitely gave them the best chance of winning because there was time and they were on the 3.
again, kicking a field goal, more often than not, is completely meaningless. trying to get a TD from the 3 is not meaningless. now, you may not make it, but if the coaches could predict the future, the decision would be easier.
What's to say you kick the FG, get the 3. Get the onside kick, few passes to the side lines or hail marry or even PI in the endzone, anything could happen, you just don't know.
All you do know that is if you don't convert that 4th down, you literally just put a fork in extending the game. How can you argue that?
of course that could happen. but one, that's obviously much less likely than scoring from a normal play from the 3.
two, if it does happen and you miss the two point conversion, then you wasted the prior scoring opportunity by kicking a field goal that is meaningless. that's why it's better to know if you get the two point conversion earlier so you don't waste scoring opportunities on field goals that don't help you.
What's to say you kick the FG, get the 3. Get the onside kick, few passes to the side lines or hail marry or even PI in the endzone, anything could happen, you just don't know.
All you do know that is if you don't convert that 4th down, you literally just put a fork in extending the game. How can you argue that?
of course that could happen. but one, that's obviously much less likely than scoring from a normal play from the 3.
two, if it does happen and you miss the two point conversion, then you wasted the prior scoring opportunity by kicking a field goal that is meaningless. that's why it's better to know if you get the two point conversion earlier so you don't waste scoring opportunities on field goals that don't help you.
gfinger, another way to say it- why waste a TD scoring opportunity at the 3 (which is a prime Td scoring opportunity) to take a field goal that (given the <50% success rate of two point conversions) is going to be meaningless more often than not?
gfinger, another way to say it- why waste a TD scoring opportunity at the 3 (which is a prime Td scoring opportunity) to take a field goal that (given the <50% success rate of two point conversions) is going to be meaningless more often than not?
Also agreed with the coach's decision. By kicking the field goal you only guaranteed the game being over a lot quicker than it was. Too much needed to happen imo. AZ was never recovering that on side kick. Even if they did they had like 40sec to score plus the 2pt conversion. Arians knew he had no chance of winning, so he just stayed with who was out on the field. Gruden just had the over.
Also agreed with the coach's decision. By kicking the field goal you only guaranteed the game being over a lot quicker than it was. Too much needed to happen imo. AZ was never recovering that on side kick. Even if they did they had like 40sec to score plus the 2pt conversion. Arians knew he had no chance of winning, so he just stayed with who was out on the field. Gruden just had the over.
you can't look at it like, well, they tried it this way and got 0 points so it was a bad idea.
look, when you are down 11 with a couple of minutes left, you're probably going to lose. what you need to do is understand the odds of certain events and maximize your chance of getting the scores you need while giving yourself as much time as possible to understand what exactly what scores you do need and try to get them. what you don't do is waste time and prime scoring opportunities on scores that very well may not help you at all.
you can't look at it like, well, they tried it this way and got 0 points so it was a bad idea.
look, when you are down 11 with a couple of minutes left, you're probably going to lose. what you need to do is understand the odds of certain events and maximize your chance of getting the scores you need while giving yourself as much time as possible to understand what exactly what scores you do need and try to get them. what you don't do is waste time and prime scoring opportunities on scores that very well may not help you at all.
of course that could happen. but one, that's obviously much less likely than scoring from a normal play from the 3.
two, if it does happen and you miss the two point conversion, then you wasted the prior scoring opportunity by kicking a field goal that is meaningless. that's why it's better to know if you get the two point conversion earlier so you don't waste scoring opportunities on field goals that don't help you.
Wrong. An FG is not meaningless when you are down 11. Sorry.
of course that could happen. but one, that's obviously much less likely than scoring from a normal play from the 3.
two, if it does happen and you miss the two point conversion, then you wasted the prior scoring opportunity by kicking a field goal that is meaningless. that's why it's better to know if you get the two point conversion earlier so you don't waste scoring opportunities on field goals that don't help you.
Wrong. An FG is not meaningless when you are down 11. Sorry.
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