CLE/BUF UNDER 41
Everyone knows how good the Browns defense has been, but the Bills defense has quietly been even better. Offensively, both teams should struggle to move the ball. The Bills offense is a work in progress and C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are going to be banged up for this one. The Browns offense is simply horrible despite the emergence of Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon, as the quarterback Brian Hoyer and the group of running backs lack true talent. Look for a game that goes right down to the wire with something in the neighborhood of a 17-16 final score.
PREDICTION: 17-16 Browns
BILLS +4.5
It's going to be a close game, so you'll want to take the points with the Bills as well. As previously mentioned, this is an outstanding defense, and the Bills offense is bad but still definitely better than Cleveland's.
PREDICTION: 17-16 Browns
EAGLES +2.5
The Eagles have looked bad recently, but it's been against stiff competition (KC, DEN). The Giants are a complete mess right now on both sides of the ball and it's hard to justify them laying points against almost any team in the NFL. My numbers suggest the Eagles should be roughly a field goal favorite in this game, giving this line very good value.
PREDICTION: 27-23 Eagles
JAX/STL UNDER 41.5
Both teams have bad defenses, but their offenses are even worse. The Jaguars currently have the worst offense of all time through four weeks (per DVOA), and the Rams haven't really been much better. They have a scored a grand total of 18 points in the last 2 weeks, 8 of which came on a TD and 2-point conversion in garbage time last week in San Francisco. Justin Blackmon's return should give the Jaguars offense a boost, but not nearly enough to get this game over the total.
PREDICTION: 23-13 Rams
NO/CHI UNDER 48.5
One of the biggest surprises of the 2013 season has been the Saints defense. The once laughable unit has allowed 17, 14, 7, and 17 points through four weeks. Vegas has adjusted by making the game in Chicago this week a pick 'em game, but they haven't adjusted for the total. This bet is a good one simply because the number is too high, and it should be 5 or 6 points lower.
PREDICTION: 23-20 Bears
PANTHERS -1.5
The Panthers are a much, much better team than Arizona. Since they struggled last year and are only 1-2 this year, no one is giving Carolina any credit, but they have played very well this season. They were a Deangelo Williams fumble on the Seahawks 10-yard line away from beating Seattle, they lost to the Bills on the road on a last-second touchdown, and they destroyed the Giants 38-0. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are worse than their 2-2 record suggests. They rank 28th in DVOA, and have benefited from some lucky bounces and timely breaks.
PREDICTION: 24-17 Panthers
SD/OAK 44.5
Both offensive units in this game are underrated. The Chargers have been a borderline elite offense this season thanks to the resurgence of Philip Rivers who has been absolutely amazing. The Raiders offense isn't great, but Terrelle Pryor has been improving every week. Dwight Freeney is also out for the season, which is a huge blow to the Chargers defense.
PREDICTION: 27-24 Chargers