WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL GAMES
It's time for our first look at what the sharps are thinking about regular season NFL action. This feature will run every weekend throughout the football season. I've had great feedback in the past for this effort. Thanks to all of you who have let me and the staff know how much you like reading about the sharp mindset.
This is an odd week in that the games have been up on the board forever. The sharps didn't make their moves this week, they made their moves back when the numbers first went up! So, in some cases, I'll be referring to bets that were made several days ago. There are some matchups though were injuries have been looming. The sharps might wait until five minutes before kickoff to play those. That's obviously too late to be included in this article. What a week!
As always, I'll take the games in rotation order...
CINCINNATI AT BALTLIMORE: The lines went up well before it became clear that Kyle Boller would miss the season, and rookie Joe Flacco would get the starting nod for the Ravens. The favorite flip flopped on that news, moving from Baltimore -1 to Cincinnati -1.5 as I write this. The total has dropped all the way from 42 down to 38. Rookies typically have trouble putting up points in their early starts. The sharps hit that total hard as soon as the situation became crystal clear. Clearly there's more sentiment on the Under than the Bengals at this point. I know some guys are hoping the public bets Cincinnati on game day so they can come back on the Ravens at +3.
NY JETS AT MIAMI: Not much movement here. The line opened at either 2.5 or 3 for the Jets, and has stayed at -3 for quite some time. This is one of those games though where a lack of movement doesn't mean a lack of action. The public likes Brett Favre here, and can't believe he's laying just a field goal. The sharps like Miami here, and can't believe a live divisional home dog with a new head coach is getting that full field goal. I think that tug of war will go on all weekend. The sharps won't lay points on the road in divisional games very readily. Squares love Favre at cheap prices.
KANSAS CITY AT NEW ENGLAND: There were some nervous offshore books that posted temporary lines much lower than New England -16 when there were rumors floating this week that Tom Brady wouldn't be able to play. The last word is that he will, so everyone's settled at -16. The total has dropped from 48 all the way down to 44. It's understood that Brady won't be at full strength. Sharps got burned last year going against the Patriots in the first two months. In their minds, betting Under is a way to exploit the Pats if the team is at less than 100%. You won't ever see sharps laying big numbers in the NFL. Some might come in on the dog on game day. I'm hearing some talk at this point. It's only talk for now.
HOUSTON AT PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh opened at -7, and the sharps hit it down to 6.5 pretty quickly. The sharps generally like Houston, though there are concerns about the defense. The sharps think Pittsburgh was overrated last year. So, you can see why everyone wanted to take the TD when it was offered. Whenever you see a line stabilize at 6.5, it usually means the public is taking the favorite (figuring they have that extra insurance if the team wins by exactly seven points), while the sharps think the line should be more like 3 or 3.5 and want the extra points.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: Not much going on here. The total has fallen from 37.5 to 36.5, which is actually a pretty big move because 37 is a hot number. It's not quite like moving from 3.5 to 2.5 on a team side. But, it's more important than a move of "just" one point might suggest. The sharps do expect a low scoring defensive battle, and were happy to go Under 37.5 and 37. You'll note the money stopped at 36.5 though, which is what you'd have to bet it at. I'm seeing some sharps take the home dog with the field goal...but Vince Young has looked so bad this summer that many have passed the team side entirely.
DETROIT AT ATLANTA: Here's another game that saw a big move when a rookie quarterback was announced as the starter. Matt Ryan will go for Atlanta. Detroit jumped from -1 to -3 on the news. The total has dropped from 44 to 41. If you want to play against the rookies this weekend, you're really taking the worst of it. One of the keys to betting like a sharp is betting FAST when news breaks! Let's say you and the sharps bet against the rookies and take the Under. If Cincinnati wins 21-17, and Detroit wins 20-17, they go 4-0 while you go 2-0-2 because you bet after the moves. That adds up over a weekend or a full season.
SEATTLE AT BUFFALO: The favorite has flip flopped here, with both teams spending some time at -1. Buffalo is currently either -1 or pick-em as I write this. The total has dropped a point to 38.5. It's not a game I'm hearing a lot about from the sharps. You normally want Buffalo getting more points. You normally want Seattle against weaker opponents. This may be the least bet game of the weekend when all the games are in the books. If the line ever goes to Buffalo -1.5, a lot of teaser money will come in on Seattle.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: The oddsmakers really hate this game, and they're using vigorish to hedge their position as best as possible. If the line sits at New Orleans -3, then the public bets the Saints because they keep hearing they're the "hot" pick to make the playoffs this year. If the line is at -3.5 the sharps come in and take the underdog because they expect a tight battle. Right now I'm seeing New Orleans -3 at -120 on the moneyline. It will probably hope between that and -3.5 +100 during the weekend. A lot of interest in this early kickoff.
ST. LOUIS AT PHILADELPHIA: This will be the most teased game of the weekend, because Philadelphia is a 7.5 point favorite. Use them in two-team teasers, and you can move the line down to 1.5. That crosses both the 3 and the 7, so basic strategy makes it a must play. There aren't any others this weekend that are so appealing, so Philadelphia is getting linked up with all sorts of teams in teasers. The books will be rooting very hard for St. Louis. If the Rams can't keep it close, more teasers will be winning than losing unless everyone loses the second legs. There's not much interest in this game other than with teasers.