Before I make a bet, I like to review all the reasons/angles to bet the other team.
The Broncos just played The Steelers with an injured Ben Roethlisberger, no clark, & no Mendenhall.
Dick Lebeau's defensive plan against Tebow worked in Denver's favor. However, to what extent did these factors make Denver look much better than they actualy are?
To begin with, The Steelers were not a good road team this year. In my opinion, regardless of anyone's feelings or emotions, The Steelers were overrated in a number of facets this season. No matter what line Vegas set for The Steelers, the public pounded it. Now they're out & we have the Broncos visiting Brady & The Patriots.
Public Perception of this game is as follows:
1. Brady vs. Tebow (again) = Patriots win. The spread for the first game between these two teams was around 7.5 with Denver at home. Denver lost by almost 20 points. However, there were 3 fumbles in that game & Brady quickly turned them into points on the board.
Now we have Denver as an underdog of almost two touchdowns. Tebow just threw/ran on & beat the top 3 ranked defense in the league. Now Denver faces the 31st ranked defense in the NFL.
2. Denver beat a hobbled road team & has no business in the playoffs. Patriots will be quick money as easy as Pittsburgh was going to be...
3. The Patriots demolished Denver in their house, it will be a slaughter in Foxboro - in the playoffs none the less.
4. Fox & Tebow vs. Belichick & Brady...Who would you take?
However, to comliment their poor defensive ranking, The Patriots have failed to cover large spreads at home against inferior teams all season.
Additionally, The Patriots do not blow teams out in the playoffs & Belichick does not have the best post-season record...
If Denver did not have those 3 turnovers & Tebow threw more (like he did Sunday) against New England's poor secondary, how would the first game between these two teams have ended? I know you can use 'ifs' all day & in any past scenario but Denver actually looked good against NE in the first quarter. Obviously there are 4 quarters to the game. Can Denver's D hold up for an entire game against Brady? Additionally, can Tebow keep up with Brady?
While New England seems like the obvious bet, I think there is some real value in the points Denver's taking with them to Foxboro this weekend.
On a different note & at a quick glance: The Giants vs. The Packers
The Giants are getting 9 points after beating 3 teams (although they all suck) & looking like the hottest team in the NFL right now behind the Saints...
They almost beat GB in this year's earlier matchup & were 7 point underdogs at home. Now they're getting 9, NINE, points against GB in the Playoffs? How could you not take The Giants here? I think Vegas recoups a ton of the money they've lost on The Gmen recently.
Green Bay -9
BOL to All this weekend!