- I really like this spot for the over. Matt Ryan has dominated the Panthers in his career. In their last 4 meetings, the Falcons have scored exactly 31 points all 4 times. The Panthers defense was exposed last week by the Giants, and I largely think this is a personell issue. The secondary looked awful, rookie Josh Norman was abused and FA addition Nakamura looked lost in coverage. I see the Julio Jones/Josh Norman match-up being a major issue for the Panthers. I also think the Panthers offense will bounce back after getting dominated by the Giants. Losing Jonathan Stewart was a much bigger deal than it seemed given that the Panthers are deep at the RB position. Fill-in Mike Tolbert is not built to run the zone read which the Panthers utilize heavily on offense. Stewart, given the long week off, should be ready to go this week. I also see Cam Newton bouncing back. He was challenged by his teammates for his leadership, and I see him coming out with something to prove. This one looks to be a shoot-out so I'm comfortable both teams will combine to break 50points. I have this one capped at 62 which allows a good margin for error.
Best of luck to everyone this week, and let's bounce back after a tough week last week.
- I really like this spot for the over. Matt Ryan has dominated the Panthers in his career. In their last 4 meetings, the Falcons have scored exactly 31 points all 4 times. The Panthers defense was exposed last week by the Giants, and I largely think this is a personell issue. The secondary looked awful, rookie Josh Norman was abused and FA addition Nakamura looked lost in coverage. I see the Julio Jones/Josh Norman match-up being a major issue for the Panthers. I also think the Panthers offense will bounce back after getting dominated by the Giants. Losing Jonathan Stewart was a much bigger deal than it seemed given that the Panthers are deep at the RB position. Fill-in Mike Tolbert is not built to run the zone read which the Panthers utilize heavily on offense. Stewart, given the long week off, should be ready to go this week. I also see Cam Newton bouncing back. He was challenged by his teammates for his leadership, and I see him coming out with something to prove. This one looks to be a shoot-out so I'm comfortable both teams will combine to break 50points. I have this one capped at 62 which allows a good margin for error.
Best of luck to everyone this week, and let's bounce back after a tough week last week.
- This is a great home/away dynamic for the over. The Bills offense is much better at home, and the Patriots offense scores a bit more on the road. The Bills defense plays significantly better at home, but I don't think they will be able to stop Tom Brady. Fitzpatrick played well against the Browns, and he typically plays better at home. In their two meetings last season, this total hit 65 and 70, and I don't see anything to change this. I have this capped at 63 so 51 is well within the margin of error.
That will probably be it in terms of totals, and I will have some side bets later on in the week.
- This is a great home/away dynamic for the over. The Bills offense is much better at home, and the Patriots offense scores a bit more on the road. The Bills defense plays significantly better at home, but I don't think they will be able to stop Tom Brady. Fitzpatrick played well against the Browns, and he typically plays better at home. In their two meetings last season, this total hit 65 and 70, and I don't see anything to change this. I have this capped at 63 so 51 is well within the margin of error.
That will probably be it in terms of totals, and I will have some side bets later on in the week.
- Riding the Dolphins for the 3rd week in a row. Guess the system likes them, and I feel like I should be 2-0 ATS when betting on them after last week's push debacle. I have this game valued at a pick. I really like the match-up here. A lot has been made of the Cardinals defense, and rightfully so. They have performed very well this season, but I think the Dolphins match-up very well with them. The strength of the Cardinals defense is their D-Line and they have feasted on some mediocre(in my opinion/observed) offensive lines thus far. Miami has a lot of talent upfront which I think will neutralize this strength. Patrick Peterson is also a fast rising star as he is emerging as a premiere shut-down cornerback. The good thing for the Dolphins is that Tannehill already has a road start against an elite defense and he seems to be spreading the ball around well. Hartline is obviously Tannehill's favorite receiver as he has been targeted on 29% of passes, but outside of that you have Bess at 20%, Fasano at 18%, and RBs at 22%. That seems like a pretty decent balance for a rookie, as they tend to hone in on the first guy they become comfortable with. I think the bottom line is that I don't see the Cardinals offense being good enough to cover the 6.5. They have averaged 20ppg and are converting on 3rd down at a rate of 33%. Miami's defense has been solid and I really see this as a FG game.
- Riding the Dolphins for the 3rd week in a row. Guess the system likes them, and I feel like I should be 2-0 ATS when betting on them after last week's push debacle. I have this game valued at a pick. I really like the match-up here. A lot has been made of the Cardinals defense, and rightfully so. They have performed very well this season, but I think the Dolphins match-up very well with them. The strength of the Cardinals defense is their D-Line and they have feasted on some mediocre(in my opinion/observed) offensive lines thus far. Miami has a lot of talent upfront which I think will neutralize this strength. Patrick Peterson is also a fast rising star as he is emerging as a premiere shut-down cornerback. The good thing for the Dolphins is that Tannehill already has a road start against an elite defense and he seems to be spreading the ball around well. Hartline is obviously Tannehill's favorite receiver as he has been targeted on 29% of passes, but outside of that you have Bess at 20%, Fasano at 18%, and RBs at 22%. That seems like a pretty decent balance for a rookie, as they tend to hone in on the first guy they become comfortable with. I think the bottom line is that I don't see the Cardinals offense being good enough to cover the 6.5. They have averaged 20ppg and are converting on 3rd down at a rate of 33%. Miami's defense has been solid and I really see this as a FG game.
This line has already fallen to 48.5, any worries about Atlanta's defense shutting down Newton and the boys, their offense looked terrible against the Giants at home and Atlanta's defense is no pushover. Best of luck in week 4.
This line has already fallen to 48.5, any worries about Atlanta's defense shutting down Newton and the boys, their offense looked terrible against the Giants at home and Atlanta's defense is no pushover. Best of luck in week 4.
This line has already fallen to 48.5, any worries about Atlanta's defense shutting down Newton and the boys, their offense looked terrible against the Giants at home and Atlanta's defense is no pushover. Best of luck in week 4.
I'm actually not too worried about the line movement. It looks like the public is pounding the under hard anyway so I guess it makes sense. I agree that the Panthers offense looked awful, but they get Jonathan Stewart back from injury along with RT Byron Bell. Stewart is key because he is a much better fit for running the zone read compared to Tolbert who just isn't quick enough. Also, last season Cam Newton did not throw a pick following a multi-interception game, and I expect him to bounce back this week. The Falcons, as I pointed out before, have scored 31 points in each of the last 4 meetings and I don't see this trend changing to the downside. Based on what I've seen, the Panthers are more than capable of scoring 19 points so I think there is definitely value in the over.
This line has already fallen to 48.5, any worries about Atlanta's defense shutting down Newton and the boys, their offense looked terrible against the Giants at home and Atlanta's defense is no pushover. Best of luck in week 4.
I'm actually not too worried about the line movement. It looks like the public is pounding the under hard anyway so I guess it makes sense. I agree that the Panthers offense looked awful, but they get Jonathan Stewart back from injury along with RT Byron Bell. Stewart is key because he is a much better fit for running the zone read compared to Tolbert who just isn't quick enough. Also, last season Cam Newton did not throw a pick following a multi-interception game, and I expect him to bounce back this week. The Falcons, as I pointed out before, have scored 31 points in each of the last 4 meetings and I don't see this trend changing to the downside. Based on what I've seen, the Panthers are more than capable of scoring 19 points so I think there is definitely value in the over.
- This sounds crazy but I like the value here with the Jets. I have them winning by 2-3 so getting 4.5pts is a good deal. The Jets play much better at home, and the 49ers struggle on the road. The Jets at home average about a TD higher on offense and a FG lower on defense compared with on the road. On the other hand, SF's offense averages about 6pts lower and their defense averages 9pts higher on the road. On the east coast especially, their offense seems to underperform. I think Sanchez seems to be much more comfortable at home, and I see him bouncing back this week after struggling in his last two road games. The loss of Revis is obviously very concerning, but they've already played without him this year so they have already built a game plan without him once. This defense has not played up to par yet this season, but I see the loss of Revis as a spark causing the rest of the defense to play up to if not above their normal level. A final note about Alex Smith, as he seems to really struggle on the road. Looking at his split stats from last year, Smith threw for 12 TDs at home and only 5 TDs on the road. His YPA also drops over a yard on the road and his QBR drops nearly 20points. I expect this to be a very low scoring game, but I think Sanchez bounces back and at least keeps this within a FG.
- This sounds crazy but I like the value here with the Jets. I have them winning by 2-3 so getting 4.5pts is a good deal. The Jets play much better at home, and the 49ers struggle on the road. The Jets at home average about a TD higher on offense and a FG lower on defense compared with on the road. On the other hand, SF's offense averages about 6pts lower and their defense averages 9pts higher on the road. On the east coast especially, their offense seems to underperform. I think Sanchez seems to be much more comfortable at home, and I see him bouncing back this week after struggling in his last two road games. The loss of Revis is obviously very concerning, but they've already played without him this year so they have already built a game plan without him once. This defense has not played up to par yet this season, but I see the loss of Revis as a spark causing the rest of the defense to play up to if not above their normal level. A final note about Alex Smith, as he seems to really struggle on the road. Looking at his split stats from last year, Smith threw for 12 TDs at home and only 5 TDs on the road. His YPA also drops over a yard on the road and his QBR drops nearly 20points. I expect this to be a very low scoring game, but I think Sanchez bounces back and at least keeps this within a FG.
- I really like the Cowboys in this spot. Their offense has failed to hit their stride yet, but I see them bouncing back against a Bears D that struggles on the road. I think DeMarco Murray could be the key here as I think he will be able to utilize his speed against an aging Bears D. As I've pointed out before, Jay Cutler is not very good on the road. Cutler has been sacked 9 times through 3 games this season, and I don't see this changing against a good Cowboys pass rush. I wouldn't be surprised to see DeMarcus Ware have a game similar to what Clay Matthews did 2 weeks ago. Forte is also reportedly out and his fill-in Michael Bush has struggled. He's averaging 3.4YPC this season, and if you take out his longest run from each game this number drops to 2.7 yards per carry. In sum, I think the Bears will struggle offensively and the Cowboys offense will be able to do enough to cover the points here.
Looking into the Giants and Titans, but outside of that this should do it for the week.
- I really like the Cowboys in this spot. Their offense has failed to hit their stride yet, but I see them bouncing back against a Bears D that struggles on the road. I think DeMarco Murray could be the key here as I think he will be able to utilize his speed against an aging Bears D. As I've pointed out before, Jay Cutler is not very good on the road. Cutler has been sacked 9 times through 3 games this season, and I don't see this changing against a good Cowboys pass rush. I wouldn't be surprised to see DeMarcus Ware have a game similar to what Clay Matthews did 2 weeks ago. Forte is also reportedly out and his fill-in Michael Bush has struggled. He's averaging 3.4YPC this season, and if you take out his longest run from each game this number drops to 2.7 yards per carry. In sum, I think the Bears will struggle offensively and the Cowboys offense will be able to do enough to cover the points here.
Looking into the Giants and Titans, but outside of that this should do it for the week.
Falcons/Panthers Over 49.5 4U (-110) Patriots/Bills Over 51 (-110) 4U Dolphins +6.5 (-110) 3U
Cowboys -3 (-120) 3U
LOVE THOSE PICKS
BUT SF IS SCARY TO ME..
BOL! HOPEFULLY THIS WEEK IS A CASH COWWW!! CHAAA CHINGGG!
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT OVER REDSKIN VS BUCCS??
I'm not sure on that game to be honest. The system is pointing towards the under, but the Redskins numbers imply the system is low-balling their offense. Last season they only outperformed their opponent's defense 4 times, while with RG3 they have outperformed every game this season. If this keeps up I could see them scoring about 27 to 33 points. The Redskins defense is pretty bad and Josh Freeman has handled himself well thus far so I could see the Bucs handling their end offensively. It will be a no play for me, but if I had to have a stake I would take the over.
Falcons/Panthers Over 49.5 4U (-110) Patriots/Bills Over 51 (-110) 4U Dolphins +6.5 (-110) 3U
Cowboys -3 (-120) 3U
LOVE THOSE PICKS
BUT SF IS SCARY TO ME..
BOL! HOPEFULLY THIS WEEK IS A CASH COWWW!! CHAAA CHINGGG!
WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT OVER REDSKIN VS BUCCS??
I'm not sure on that game to be honest. The system is pointing towards the under, but the Redskins numbers imply the system is low-balling their offense. Last season they only outperformed their opponent's defense 4 times, while with RG3 they have outperformed every game this season. If this keeps up I could see them scoring about 27 to 33 points. The Redskins defense is pretty bad and Josh Freeman has handled himself well thus far so I could see the Bucs handling their end offensively. It will be a no play for me, but if I had to have a stake I would take the over.
Be aware that the 49er's stayed and practiced in Ohio after the loss so traveling isn't a factor
Appreciate your post. Do you know if the 49ers always do this? The only prior precedent I would look at is the Panthers/Bucs game in Week 1. The Panthers had to practice away from their facilities the week before because of the DNC and they came out very flat.
The 49ers did the same thing last year when they played Cincinnati and turned around to play the Eagles. The 49ers appeared to come out flat as they were down 20-3 midway through the 3rd quarter. They ended up rallying to get the win, which was the 4th largest blown lead in Eagles history. This was a pretty odd game, with 4 turnovers and 3 missed FGs. I'm not sure if you can use this game accurately to predict this season.
I still like the pick though regardless. I think this is a big game for the Jets and they seem to play much better at home.
Be aware that the 49er's stayed and practiced in Ohio after the loss so traveling isn't a factor
Appreciate your post. Do you know if the 49ers always do this? The only prior precedent I would look at is the Panthers/Bucs game in Week 1. The Panthers had to practice away from their facilities the week before because of the DNC and they came out very flat.
The 49ers did the same thing last year when they played Cincinnati and turned around to play the Eagles. The 49ers appeared to come out flat as they were down 20-3 midway through the 3rd quarter. They ended up rallying to get the win, which was the 4th largest blown lead in Eagles history. This was a pretty odd game, with 4 turnovers and 3 missed FGs. I'm not sure if you can use this game accurately to predict this season.
I still like the pick though regardless. I think this is a big game for the Jets and they seem to play much better at home.
amd: Glad to see that you are on the Dolphins and Jets. What are your thoughts on USF +17? I like this spot just because FSU is coming off a huge win and this is USF's Super Bowl. Lots of Florida kids on USF's roster which were all passed over by FSU. QB BJ Daniels is actually from Tallahassee and willed them to victory a few years ago playing as a back-up. Good luck this week.
hosi: I always accept requests as I get them, if it didn't work just add me again and I will accept it.
amd: Glad to see that you are on the Dolphins and Jets. What are your thoughts on USF +17? I like this spot just because FSU is coming off a huge win and this is USF's Super Bowl. Lots of Florida kids on USF's roster which were all passed over by FSU. QB BJ Daniels is actually from Tallahassee and willed them to victory a few years ago playing as a back-up. Good luck this week.
hosi: I always accept requests as I get them, if it didn't work just add me again and I will accept it.
- I think this is just too many points. I have the Texans winning by 6, but could easily see this being a 10pt game. Matt Schaub, for whatever reason, just doesn't seem to play well at home. His TD-INT ratio at home last season was 5-5 compared with 10-1 on the road. Tennessee's defense is underrated in my opinion. Sure they have been abused this season, but they've also had to play Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, and Matthew Stafford. I think Matt Schaub is a good QB, but he doesn't have the same stuff as these three. Houston's offense doesn't put up the same stats at home compared to on the road. This is a product of their defense which seems to have a significant drop-off on the road in my opinion. I'm keeping this small because I don't trust Jake Locker and the Titans offensive line just yet. They did a good job last week though, allowing no sacks against a solid Lions D-Line. The bottom line is that I don't see Houston getting up for this game because they've been told this week how awesome they are for being 3-0 with many calling them the best team in the league. I don't see them keeping the peddle down offensively, and this could play out similarly to the Browns/Ravens game from last night. I honestly think this could be a major backdoor spot as well.
- I think this is just too many points. I have the Texans winning by 6, but could easily see this being a 10pt game. Matt Schaub, for whatever reason, just doesn't seem to play well at home. His TD-INT ratio at home last season was 5-5 compared with 10-1 on the road. Tennessee's defense is underrated in my opinion. Sure they have been abused this season, but they've also had to play Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, and Matthew Stafford. I think Matt Schaub is a good QB, but he doesn't have the same stuff as these three. Houston's offense doesn't put up the same stats at home compared to on the road. This is a product of their defense which seems to have a significant drop-off on the road in my opinion. I'm keeping this small because I don't trust Jake Locker and the Titans offensive line just yet. They did a good job last week though, allowing no sacks against a solid Lions D-Line. The bottom line is that I don't see Houston getting up for this game because they've been told this week how awesome they are for being 3-0 with many calling them the best team in the league. I don't see them keeping the peddle down offensively, and this could play out similarly to the Browns/Ravens game from last night. I honestly think this could be a major backdoor spot as well.
Sorry for the 5 posts, but I hadn't seen this line yet.
Adding:
Lions -4 (-110) 2U
- I think this is a big overreaction to last week. The Lions lost a crazy game to the Titans, and the Vikings caught the 49ers in a great spot. I think the Lions just have too much offense for the Vikings to keep this one close. The Vikings D has thrived on some pretty weak offenses, and I don't see them stopping Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford at home. Ponder has played very well this season, but I see him reverting back a little bit to last season's form. This is a divisional match-up and I see the Lions playing hard as they know they can't start the season 1-3.
That officially does it for the week. Sorry again for all of the posts, but BOL to everyone. Should be an interesting week.
Sorry for the 5 posts, but I hadn't seen this line yet.
Adding:
Lions -4 (-110) 2U
- I think this is a big overreaction to last week. The Lions lost a crazy game to the Titans, and the Vikings caught the 49ers in a great spot. I think the Lions just have too much offense for the Vikings to keep this one close. The Vikings D has thrived on some pretty weak offenses, and I don't see them stopping Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford at home. Ponder has played very well this season, but I see him reverting back a little bit to last season's form. This is a divisional match-up and I see the Lions playing hard as they know they can't start the season 1-3.
That officially does it for the week. Sorry again for all of the posts, but BOL to everyone. Should be an interesting week.
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