We all love home dogs in the NFL and looking back long term on this situational angle it looks like she has merit.This could put me into a game with a higher percentage of a cover and we all like winning here.
STEP ONE FOR NFL HANDICAPPING:
ISOLATE THE 'PUBLIC' TEAMS
The single most important thing you can do as an NFL handicapper is to bet against the public. You don't have to know the players, or the coaches. You don't even have to pay that much attention to the point spreads. I'm convinced that blindly betting against public teams will GET THE BEST OF IT in most years all by itself.
Now, I've been around a long time. I've added some nuances. I tend to go against public teams HARD as big favorites, because that's when the line is most inflated against them. Public teams, if they're any good, will actually show up well as underdogs. I'm less concerned about fading them then. And, there are some situations where you want to step in early in a season (for last year's Super Bowl teams for example), but the edge gradually disappears later in the season.
Working list for PUBLIC teams in the NFL this coming season.
THE SUPER BOWL TEAMS
Defending NFL champion NEW
ORLEANS, and runner-up INDIANAPOLIS, are going to be expensive to back
this season. Everyone wants to ride a winner. Both teams have great
quarterbacks, and bettors always think the best quarterbacks will bail
them out.
THE TV TEAMS
DALLAS is still America's Team in
terms of TV ratings, and they generate a lot of public betting action
as a result. Brett Favre has become America's quarterback, meaning
lines for MINNESOTA will be high as well if he's able to come back from
his ankle injury and start this season.
Do you remember the last time Dallas won a Super Bowl? Do you remember the last time Favre won one? It doesn't matter. The public bets like they win it every year.
THE BLOWOUT TEAMS
NEW ENGLAND still gets respect
because they were so dominant three years ago. That's worn off a bit
because Brady looked like he got old last season. Still, the public
likes betting the Patriots, so I expect the Patriots to be a public
team again in 2010.
SAN DIEGO has a reputation as a team that wins big when things are going well. That's created some very high home field lines for them in recent seasons. I think they're typically overpriced by 2-3 points as home favorites. I don't expect that to change this year.
THE NEW YORK TEAMS
Even though Las Vegas is a
long way away from the Big Apple, that New York money seems to find its
way into the pointspread. The New York JETS are an up-and-coming team
under media friendly coach Rex Ryan. After making the playoffs, they're
going to be a public team this year. The GIANTS won the Super Bowl two
years ago. Plus, Eli Manning has had some of that Eli Manning aura rub
off on him in terms of the public mindset.
STEP ONE FOR NFL HANDICAPPING:
ISOLATE THE 'PUBLIC' TEAMS
The single most important thing you can do as an NFL handicapper is to bet against the public. You don't have to know the players, or the coaches. You don't even have to pay that much attention to the point spreads. I'm convinced that blindly betting against public teams will GET THE BEST OF IT in most years all by itself.
Now, I've been around a long time. I've added some nuances. I tend to go against public teams HARD as big favorites, because that's when the line is most inflated against them. Public teams, if they're any good, will actually show up well as underdogs. I'm less concerned about fading them then. And, there are some situations where you want to step in early in a season (for last year's Super Bowl teams for example), but the edge gradually disappears later in the season.
Working list for PUBLIC teams in the NFL this coming season.
THE SUPER BOWL TEAMS
Defending NFL champion NEW
ORLEANS, and runner-up INDIANAPOLIS, are going to be expensive to back
this season. Everyone wants to ride a winner. Both teams have great
quarterbacks, and bettors always think the best quarterbacks will bail
them out.
THE TV TEAMS
DALLAS is still America's Team in
terms of TV ratings, and they generate a lot of public betting action
as a result. Brett Favre has become America's quarterback, meaning
lines for MINNESOTA will be high as well if he's able to come back from
his ankle injury and start this season.
Do you remember the last time Dallas won a Super Bowl? Do you remember the last time Favre won one? It doesn't matter. The public bets like they win it every year.
THE BLOWOUT TEAMS
NEW ENGLAND still gets respect
because they were so dominant three years ago. That's worn off a bit
because Brady looked like he got old last season. Still, the public
likes betting the Patriots, so I expect the Patriots to be a public
team again in 2010.
SAN DIEGO has a reputation as a team that wins big when things are going well. That's created some very high home field lines for them in recent seasons. I think they're typically overpriced by 2-3 points as home favorites. I don't expect that to change this year.
THE NEW YORK TEAMS
Even though Las Vegas is a
long way away from the Big Apple, that New York money seems to find its
way into the pointspread. The New York JETS are an up-and-coming team
under media friendly coach Rex Ryan. After making the playoffs, they're
going to be a public team this year. The GIANTS won the Super Bowl two
years ago. Plus, Eli Manning has had some of that Eli Manning aura rub
off on him in terms of the public mindset.
Is this a recent trend or has this stood the test of time?
Is this a recent trend or has this stood the test of time?
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