GB opens up as an 11 pt fav. Currently around 10. As you can see GB is better in all categories - O. rush, Pass, def. rush, pass and sagarin rank and sched. strength. This is what I call an 0/6 situation. Historically when you have a line around 10/11/12 points for the home team and the home team is better in every category - it means vegas has over valued the home team therefore you bet the away team. Also, what's interesting - these teams don't typically score many points - thus an under play is the way to go as well. Good luck all.
GB opens up as an 11 pt fav. Currently around 10. As you can see GB is better in all categories - O. rush, Pass, def. rush, pass and sagarin rank and sched. strength. This is what I call an 0/6 situation. Historically when you have a line around 10/11/12 points for the home team and the home team is better in every category - it means vegas has over valued the home team therefore you bet the away team. Also, what's interesting - these teams don't typically score many points - thus an under play is the way to go as well. Good luck all.
The home team is better in every category yet they overvalued at -10? So if they were only better in 3 out of 6 categories would they be severely overvalued....if they were better in only 1 out of 6 categories would they be completely and overly overvalued beyond belief? I just am not following this logic
The home team is better in every category yet they overvalued at -10? So if they were only better in 3 out of 6 categories would they be severely overvalued....if they were better in only 1 out of 6 categories would they be completely and overly overvalued beyond belief? I just am not following this logic
Pix: i have a clue; however, you may be right but i'd rather go with the numbers and history vice what you have seen since preseason. If football worked based on what we witnessed- we would all be millionaires but there is more to the story when you uncover and look at the numbers/nuts and bolts of a team and comparing that with the line.
Pix: i have a clue; however, you may be right but i'd rather go with the numbers and history vice what you have seen since preseason. If football worked based on what we witnessed- we would all be millionaires but there is more to the story when you uncover and look at the numbers/nuts and bolts of a team and comparing that with the line.
I agree with Pix here. Its all gonna come down to if the bears can stop the run and if GB can stop the run and with the bears being completely undersized on one end and GB quietly being a great run stopper, they should win both of those battles and it "should" be enough to cover the big line.
I'm just afraid McCarthy doesn't do his "we are dominating the game to the tune of 23-3 and I'm gonna take my foot off the gas and play prevent late in the 3rd quarter" and Chicago scores a couple late TD for a back door.
I agree with Pix here. Its all gonna come down to if the bears can stop the run and if GB can stop the run and with the bears being completely undersized on one end and GB quietly being a great run stopper, they should win both of those battles and it "should" be enough to cover the big line.
I'm just afraid McCarthy doesn't do his "we are dominating the game to the tune of 23-3 and I'm gonna take my foot off the gas and play prevent late in the 3rd quarter" and Chicago scores a couple late TD for a back door.
vegas - based on the numbers and categories i look at along with the lines- when the home team is better in all 6 catgeories - often the away team gets the cover and occasionally the win. That means to me - that vegas looks at a game like this and gives the weaker team more points and the team that looks like they will get crushed ends up covering. When it comes to 3/3 situations - you see smaller lines - like in the case of the jets/no-3.5;tenn/stlouis-3; i don't bet based on the line - but rather what each scenario has done previously compared to that line. I go with the percentages - that's why i said Pix may be right - however, based on my data - the team to go with is the bears in this situation.
vegas - based on the numbers and categories i look at along with the lines- when the home team is better in all 6 catgeories - often the away team gets the cover and occasionally the win. That means to me - that vegas looks at a game like this and gives the weaker team more points and the team that looks like they will get crushed ends up covering. When it comes to 3/3 situations - you see smaller lines - like in the case of the jets/no-3.5;tenn/stlouis-3; i don't bet based on the line - but rather what each scenario has done previously compared to that line. I go with the percentages - that's why i said Pix may be right - however, based on my data - the team to go with is the bears in this situation.
Sharky - i'm thinking a backdoor cover as well - sort of how the lions got the bears last year.
Jonblaze - it can be confusing because - everything is numbers and patterns - i take bias, visionary, injuries other than qb out of the equation. I do all right - still gotta work but i'm getting paid Tuesday either way.
Glyde - you and Pix may be right - that's why it's called gambling.
Sharky - i'm thinking a backdoor cover as well - sort of how the lions got the bears last year.
Jonblaze - it can be confusing because - everything is numbers and patterns - i take bias, visionary, injuries other than qb out of the equation. I do all right - still gotta work but i'm getting paid Tuesday either way.
Glyde - you and Pix may be right - that's why it's called gambling.
Buddah...I pretty much agree with you in terms of the numbers. I heard today from a sharp that there giving the Bears and additional 3 points for there QB. If cutty was playing it would be GB -7.
I might just drink the GB koolaid...but leaning to the Unders..
Buddah...I pretty much agree with you in terms of the numbers. I heard today from a sharp that there giving the Bears and additional 3 points for there QB. If cutty was playing it would be GB -7.
I might just drink the GB koolaid...but leaning to the Unders..
GB opens up as an 11 pt fav. Currently around 10. As you can see GB is better in all categories - O. rush, Pass, def. rush, pass and sagarin rank and sched. strength. This is what I call an 0/6 situation. Historically when you have a line around 10/11/12 points for the home team and the home team is better in every category - it means vegas has over valued the home team therefore you bet the away team. Also, what's interesting - these teams don't typically score many points - thus an under play is the way to go as well. Good luck all.
These teams don't typically score many points??? Don't know what football you're watching, but these two teams have been putting up ridiculous points, even when they lose.... And your stats are irrelevant, because it is a different QB now and not Cutler.. Different QB, different strategy.. This game is a no play.
GB opens up as an 11 pt fav. Currently around 10. As you can see GB is better in all categories - O. rush, Pass, def. rush, pass and sagarin rank and sched. strength. This is what I call an 0/6 situation. Historically when you have a line around 10/11/12 points for the home team and the home team is better in every category - it means vegas has over valued the home team therefore you bet the away team. Also, what's interesting - these teams don't typically score many points - thus an under play is the way to go as well. Good luck all.
These teams don't typically score many points??? Don't know what football you're watching, but these two teams have been putting up ridiculous points, even when they lose.... And your stats are irrelevant, because it is a different QB now and not Cutler.. Different QB, different strategy.. This game is a no play.
vegas -Basically. I use to follow consensus - won a lot then lost a lot - started collecting this and eventually began uncovering patterns in the numbers - been collecting and comparing since 2006 - so i do have history to refer to. Good luck to you.
vegas -Basically. I use to follow consensus - won a lot then lost a lot - started collecting this and eventually began uncovering patterns in the numbers - been collecting and comparing since 2006 - so i do have history to refer to. Good luck to you.
JohnnyT - it's not that they don't score many points but when you have these numbers with a vegas line of 11 (opening line) - teams typically won't go over the total 50.5 in this game. The chnage in Qb is reflected in the line - if he had not played a lot in the previous game against wash. i'd agree that it's a game to avoid but he played a good enough portion, so i'm going with them.
JohnnyT - it's not that they don't score many points but when you have these numbers with a vegas line of 11 (opening line) - teams typically won't go over the total 50.5 in this game. The chnage in Qb is reflected in the line - if he had not played a lot in the previous game against wash. i'd agree that it's a game to avoid but he played a good enough portion, so i'm going with them.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.