Last week was nice hitting my 3 team 10 point teaser and the 3 team 7 point teaser which paid me +150... So walking away with +2.5 units really helps and I hope to avoid giving it away over the season (as I typically do)...
WAS almost fucked as expected, but it was surprising how many favs hit and won their games.. I think that this shows the lack of parity int he league and how the bad teams are like KC, OAK, STL are just not competitive SU...
So we have what look like two obvious SU winners this week with NYG at home against OAK and PHI at home off of bye week against TB...
I have seen lines that put PHI at 13, which is fine +13 ATS... In fact anything under 15.5 points is decent because it gives you a -2.5 or less and you have the value of not passing the zero...
But I have already seen the NYG game going over 16 points, which is a significant number becasue not only does this hit -3 or more, but the reverse now gives you more then 4 TDs advantage which is a huge number... Which makes me wonder if OAK might be the play on this out of principle...
Other interesting Road fav mismatches are MIN@STL, PIT@DET and DAL@KC... which in theory might create a very scary 3 team 10 point teaser that in my mind is bound to fail... The reverse is that all of these homedogs can teased to get more then 21 points which is a nice number...
I would be interested to see what people think about this week... At first glance I thought it did not look that good, but mathematically I think there are some options out there...
Last week was nice hitting my 3 team 10 point teaser and the 3 team 7 point teaser which paid me +150... So walking away with +2.5 units really helps and I hope to avoid giving it away over the season (as I typically do)...
WAS almost fucked as expected, but it was surprising how many favs hit and won their games.. I think that this shows the lack of parity int he league and how the bad teams are like KC, OAK, STL are just not competitive SU...
So we have what look like two obvious SU winners this week with NYG at home against OAK and PHI at home off of bye week against TB...
I have seen lines that put PHI at 13, which is fine +13 ATS... In fact anything under 15.5 points is decent because it gives you a -2.5 or less and you have the value of not passing the zero...
But I have already seen the NYG game going over 16 points, which is a significant number becasue not only does this hit -3 or more, but the reverse now gives you more then 4 TDs advantage which is a huge number... Which makes me wonder if OAK might be the play on this out of principle...
Other interesting Road fav mismatches are MIN@STL, PIT@DET and DAL@KC... which in theory might create a very scary 3 team 10 point teaser that in my mind is bound to fail... The reverse is that all of these homedogs can teased to get more then 21 points which is a nice number...
I would be interested to see what people think about this week... At first glance I thought it did not look that good, but mathematically I think there are some options out there...
The other angle that has done well historically is the homedog of a bye scenario + 13 points ATS...
The logical rationale is that they are playing in a game after some rest and having an extra week to game plan for a match up at home that should be challenging... This angle went years with success and then last year did not when for the first time in 3 seasons... But this is a bread and butter angle that I have been using with the +13 point ATS since the 1990s...
Also this is the only angle that I know of from a historical perspective that hits over 90% (mind you, random picks hit about 85% +13 points ATS)... But in terms of home vs away, fav vs dog, even the variable of games with lower over/unders that I often talk about, just do not have the same historical numbers as this angle of what I call the homedog/byedog...
This week we have MIA which I am hoping with go up to +14.5...
Say what you want about match ups. QB situation, etc... The math behind the +13 points ATS would lead towards playing the homedog/byedog and hopefully at a +14.5 or better number...
The other angle that has done well historically is the homedog of a bye scenario + 13 points ATS...
The logical rationale is that they are playing in a game after some rest and having an extra week to game plan for a match up at home that should be challenging... This angle went years with success and then last year did not when for the first time in 3 seasons... But this is a bread and butter angle that I have been using with the +13 point ATS since the 1990s...
Also this is the only angle that I know of from a historical perspective that hits over 90% (mind you, random picks hit about 85% +13 points ATS)... But in terms of home vs away, fav vs dog, even the variable of games with lower over/unders that I often talk about, just do not have the same historical numbers as this angle of what I call the homedog/byedog...
This week we have MIA which I am hoping with go up to +14.5...
Say what you want about match ups. QB situation, etc... The math behind the +13 points ATS would lead towards playing the homedog/byedog and hopefully at a +14.5 or better number...
DAL +4... In some ways this line is scary because it is deja vu from last week with another NFC east team as a 9 point fav on the road... I might look at teasing this game again on a 6.5 point teaser down to -2.5, but I gotta admit this game scares me... There is also some thoughts that DAL will look to get Romo back on track in this game...
PHI -2... I like the number, I like the situation coming off of a bye... This is a nice +13 point ATS play IMO...
CIN +21.5... CIN got blew out last year @ BAL and perception with BAL is that they will bounce back as one of the best teams in the league... My thinking is that CIN should be able to put up enough points to stay with in 3 TDs... Other then blowing out CLE, BAL has allowed 24 or more points in every other game so far this season...
DET +23.5... I have mixed feelings on this as some of this play is betting against PIT's ability to win by that much on the road... I will probably talk myself out of this by sunday, but it is something to consider based on being a home dog at this number...
NYG -3/OAK +29... Tough number with NYG as a fav... an interesting angle on this is that if NYG gets up by alot of points, they might look at resting Manning with his plantar issues and slow the game down, thus giving the 4 TD cushion more value... But I can tell you if this line drops a half point, I will be all over NYG...
MIN +3.5/STL +22.5... I think that MIN is overrated right now, but in ways I might be smart to fade STL, especially getting an FG cushion... On the other side, getting more then 3 TDs might be a nice spot as MIN has not blown anyone out yet this season by more then 2TDs and with STL at home there might be more value ...
So this is what I am thinking so far... I am trying to pick 4 from...
DAL+4 PHI -2 DET +23.5 CIN +21.5
MIN +3.5/STL +22.5
NYG -3/OAK +29.
DAL +4... In some ways this line is scary because it is deja vu from last week with another NFC east team as a 9 point fav on the road... I might look at teasing this game again on a 6.5 point teaser down to -2.5, but I gotta admit this game scares me... There is also some thoughts that DAL will look to get Romo back on track in this game...
PHI -2... I like the number, I like the situation coming off of a bye... This is a nice +13 point ATS play IMO...
CIN +21.5... CIN got blew out last year @ BAL and perception with BAL is that they will bounce back as one of the best teams in the league... My thinking is that CIN should be able to put up enough points to stay with in 3 TDs... Other then blowing out CLE, BAL has allowed 24 or more points in every other game so far this season...
DET +23.5... I have mixed feelings on this as some of this play is betting against PIT's ability to win by that much on the road... I will probably talk myself out of this by sunday, but it is something to consider based on being a home dog at this number...
NYG -3/OAK +29... Tough number with NYG as a fav... an interesting angle on this is that if NYG gets up by alot of points, they might look at resting Manning with his plantar issues and slow the game down, thus giving the 4 TD cushion more value... But I can tell you if this line drops a half point, I will be all over NYG...
MIN +3.5/STL +22.5... I think that MIN is overrated right now, but in ways I might be smart to fade STL, especially getting an FG cushion... On the other side, getting more then 3 TDs might be a nice spot as MIN has not blown anyone out yet this season by more then 2TDs and with STL at home there might be more value ...
So this is what I am thinking so far... I am trying to pick 4 from...
DAL+4 PHI -2 DET +23.5 CIN +21.5
MIN +3.5/STL +22.5
NYG -3/OAK +29.
I was incorrect about the homedog/byedog as MIA played BUF last week, so this decreases the chances of playing this pick for me, but any homedog in the NFL at a decent number is worth a look...
I was incorrect about the homedog/byedog as MIA played BUF last week, so this decreases the chances of playing this pick for me, but any homedog in the NFL at a decent number is worth a look...
I think this looks like a great teaser mathematically in getting good numbers...
unfortunately I have MIN at +3... In some ways MIN has a positive perception while STL has a negative perception, so I feel like this line is somewhat inflated... I do like the idea tho of MIN on a SU win and getting an FG cushion...
I am actually on the other side of the BAL game, but I do think it is a decent bet with what you have with an FG cushion...
I think this looks like a great teaser mathematically in getting good numbers...
unfortunately I have MIN at +3... In some ways MIN has a positive perception while STL has a negative perception, so I feel like this line is somewhat inflated... I do like the idea tho of MIN on a SU win and getting an FG cushion...
I am actually on the other side of the BAL game, but I do think it is a decent bet with what you have with an FG cushion...
Sorry, that was a failed attempt at posting a spread sheet that I saw that talks about the importance of numbers and how the number 3 and 7 hit most frequently (25% of the time)...
I am having trouble coming up with a teaser this week...
I am pretty sold with CIN +21.5 and PHI -2.5
Right now the NYG game is off the board due to the QB situation...
I am starting to be drawn to a STL +23... This is a game of a huge number in what might be a lower scoring game with both teams running the ball...
I also find myself leaning towards TEN +17...
Both these 0-4 teams have played 3 of their 4 games on the road so far and are now getting a chance to play at home as an underdog and against opponents that are 4-0 and teams that people cashed in on last week, so perhaps I feel like I am getting some value here with these dogs...
The last game is DET +23.5... PIT lost both their games on the road so far, and although I am saying that SET will win SU... I could see them staying with 2 TDs and the number give you 3...
Sorry, that was a failed attempt at posting a spread sheet that I saw that talks about the importance of numbers and how the number 3 and 7 hit most frequently (25% of the time)...
I am having trouble coming up with a teaser this week...
I am pretty sold with CIN +21.5 and PHI -2.5
Right now the NYG game is off the board due to the QB situation...
I am starting to be drawn to a STL +23... This is a game of a huge number in what might be a lower scoring game with both teams running the ball...
I also find myself leaning towards TEN +17...
Both these 0-4 teams have played 3 of their 4 games on the road so far and are now getting a chance to play at home as an underdog and against opponents that are 4-0 and teams that people cashed in on last week, so perhaps I feel like I am getting some value here with these dogs...
The last game is DET +23.5... PIT lost both their games on the road so far, and although I am saying that SET will win SU... I could see them staying with 2 TDs and the number give you 3...
Right now the NYG game is off the board due to the QB situation...
I am starting to be drawn to a STL +23... This is a game of a huge number in what might be a lower scoring game with both teams running the ball...
I also find myself leaning towards TEN +17...
Both these 0-4 teams have played 3 of their 4 games on the road so far and are now getting a chance to play at home as an underdog and against opponents that are 4-0 and teams that people cashed in on last week, so perhaps I feel like I am getting some value here with these dogs...
I like these
All hit, or cross, important numbers with the right side
Right now the NYG game is off the board due to the QB situation...
I am starting to be drawn to a STL +23... This is a game of a huge number in what might be a lower scoring game with both teams running the ball...
I also find myself leaning towards TEN +17...
Both these 0-4 teams have played 3 of their 4 games on the road so far and are now getting a chance to play at home as an underdog and against opponents that are 4-0 and teams that people cashed in on last week, so perhaps I feel like I am getting some value here with these dogs...
I like these
All hit, or cross, important numbers with the right side
I really think that the value of teasers comes from doing the math and hitting the numbers... The picking is about the capping...
So true teaser picking is a art of using both to give you the best chances each week...
NYG opened up at -2.5, so I am taking that along with PHI -2.5 and CIN +21.5...
I just need to figure out my final pick... I am actually feeling better about this week and might look at playing 1.25 units...
any more ideas or suggestions?
I liked the ones you had before...
TEN +17 is 3 scores for a desperate divisional home dog in a primetime game.
STL +23 is another good home dog, assuming you could catch the Vikes sluggish/slow to start off a short week & emotional divisional win, in a game that features a lot of smash-mouth, downhill running... tick tick tick right.
Nothing's easy, but I like all 5 of those potential plays, and there are good numbers on all of em
I really think that the value of teasers comes from doing the math and hitting the numbers... The picking is about the capping...
So true teaser picking is a art of using both to give you the best chances each week...
NYG opened up at -2.5, so I am taking that along with PHI -2.5 and CIN +21.5...
I just need to figure out my final pick... I am actually feeling better about this week and might look at playing 1.25 units...
any more ideas or suggestions?
I liked the ones you had before...
TEN +17 is 3 scores for a desperate divisional home dog in a primetime game.
STL +23 is another good home dog, assuming you could catch the Vikes sluggish/slow to start off a short week & emotional divisional win, in a game that features a lot of smash-mouth, downhill running... tick tick tick right.
Nothing's easy, but I like all 5 of those potential plays, and there are good numbers on all of em
But i did the most retarded thing ever and did a four team parlay instead with my last 400 bucks.
One thing that I have learned over the years is that NFL is a long season and really a marathon rather then a sprint... Also NFL is a slower paced betting rhythm (unlike daily baskets or bases), so you do not need to make any bets you should reget by being impulsive or impatient (other then half time bets)...
But i did the most retarded thing ever and did a four team parlay instead with my last 400 bucks.
One thing that I have learned over the years is that NFL is a long season and really a marathon rather then a sprint... Also NFL is a slower paced betting rhythm (unlike daily baskets or bases), so you do not need to make any bets you should reget by being impulsive or impatient (other then half time bets)...
TEN +17 is 3 scores for a desperate divisional home dog in a primetime game.
STL +23 is another good home dog, assuming you could catch the Vikes sluggish/slow to start off a short week & emotional divisional win, in a game that features a lot of smash-mouth, downhill running... tick tick tick right.
Nothing's easy, but I like all 5 of those potential plays, and there are good numbers on all of em
BOL this weekend dl
I am hoping all 5 win becasue I am going to pick 4 out of those 5...
What do you think about NYG -2.5? am I better off with the other picks?
Do you like STL or TEN better?
I like STL because of the number being much better... But TEN is probably the better team...
TEN +17 is 3 scores for a desperate divisional home dog in a primetime game.
STL +23 is another good home dog, assuming you could catch the Vikes sluggish/slow to start off a short week & emotional divisional win, in a game that features a lot of smash-mouth, downhill running... tick tick tick right.
Nothing's easy, but I like all 5 of those potential plays, and there are good numbers on all of em
BOL this weekend dl
I am hoping all 5 win becasue I am going to pick 4 out of those 5...
What do you think about NYG -2.5? am I better off with the other picks?
Do you like STL or TEN better?
I like STL because of the number being much better... But TEN is probably the better team...
I am hoping all 5 win becasue I am going to pick 4 out of those 5...
What do you think about NYG -2.5? am I better off with the other picks?
Do you like STL or TEN better?
I like STL because of the number being much better... But TEN is probably the better team...
What do you think?
Tough to call... I normally don't like teasing in the opposite direction of my pick (OAK) although NYG -2.5 seems like a no brainer so I can't argue with that.
I feel the same way as you about STL/TEN... Those are both my sides, there are good reasons why both should scare us, but I guess that's why they call it gambling...if you want to make money, you have to go against the BF's and Mannings of the world.
Put it this way, their both home dogs vs. public teams, and although one is in a good situational spot and gets more than 3 TD's, the other has Jeff Fisher as the coach and is divisional.
I'm sold on both, but not sure one is much better than the other.
I am hoping all 5 win becasue I am going to pick 4 out of those 5...
What do you think about NYG -2.5? am I better off with the other picks?
Do you like STL or TEN better?
I like STL because of the number being much better... But TEN is probably the better team...
What do you think?
Tough to call... I normally don't like teasing in the opposite direction of my pick (OAK) although NYG -2.5 seems like a no brainer so I can't argue with that.
I feel the same way as you about STL/TEN... Those are both my sides, there are good reasons why both should scare us, but I guess that's why they call it gambling...if you want to make money, you have to go against the BF's and Mannings of the world.
Put it this way, their both home dogs vs. public teams, and although one is in a good situational spot and gets more than 3 TD's, the other has Jeff Fisher as the coach and is divisional.
I'm sold on both, but not sure one is much better than the other.
Sorry, that was a failed attempt at posting a spread sheet that I saw that talks about the importance of numbers and how the number 3 and 7 hit most frequently (25% of the time)...
I am having trouble coming up with a teaser this week...
I am pretty sold with CIN +21.5 and PHI -2.5
Right now the NYG game is off the board due to the QB situation...
I am starting to be drawn to a STL +23... This is a game of a huge number in what might be a lower scoring game with both teams running the ball...
I also find myself leaning towards TEN +17...
Both these 0-4 teams have played 3 of their 4 games on the road so far and are now getting a chance to play at home as an underdog and against opponents that are 4-0 and teams that people cashed in on last week, so perhaps I feel like I am getting some value here with these dogs...
The last game is DET +23.5... PIT lost both their games on the road so far, and although I am saying that SET will win SU... I could see them staying with 2 TDs and the number give you 3...
Any more ideas or suggestions?
Detroit lose by 24 last week vs. the Bears after playing their hearts out in the 1st half. Now they play imo a better Steelers team with Culpepper under center. They could easily get blow out like 38-10 or something like that. As far a teasing dogs I would tease Cincy +24 which I think is a live dog. Even the Jets +11 looks good as I see that game being a grind it out type of affair with that Jets D as an ace in the hole.
I'm playing a 3 team 10.5 pt teaser Vikings -1, Steelers -1.5 and Pats +7.5
Sorry, that was a failed attempt at posting a spread sheet that I saw that talks about the importance of numbers and how the number 3 and 7 hit most frequently (25% of the time)...
I am having trouble coming up with a teaser this week...
I am pretty sold with CIN +21.5 and PHI -2.5
Right now the NYG game is off the board due to the QB situation...
I am starting to be drawn to a STL +23... This is a game of a huge number in what might be a lower scoring game with both teams running the ball...
I also find myself leaning towards TEN +17...
Both these 0-4 teams have played 3 of their 4 games on the road so far and are now getting a chance to play at home as an underdog and against opponents that are 4-0 and teams that people cashed in on last week, so perhaps I feel like I am getting some value here with these dogs...
The last game is DET +23.5... PIT lost both their games on the road so far, and although I am saying that SET will win SU... I could see them staying with 2 TDs and the number give you 3...
Any more ideas or suggestions?
Detroit lose by 24 last week vs. the Bears after playing their hearts out in the 1st half. Now they play imo a better Steelers team with Culpepper under center. They could easily get blow out like 38-10 or something like that. As far a teasing dogs I would tease Cincy +24 which I think is a live dog. Even the Jets +11 looks good as I see that game being a grind it out type of affair with that Jets D as an ace in the hole.
I'm playing a 3 team 10.5 pt teaser Vikings -1, Steelers -1.5 and Pats +7.5
Carolina +9-like this one alot against a bad wash offense
Eagles -2.5-key number off 3
Steelers 2.5-see minny
going to hit one of these teasers for the 1st round of games...not sure about the later ones
I like the way you are thinking about it... I guess I would caution against too many picks... If you play 2 teasers, you can go 7-1 and end up just paying juice going 1-1 on your teasers...
Mathematically if you were to pick randomly you should go about 11-2 if you were to pick 13 games... So if you play 3 teasers (12 picks)...there is a good chance of going 1-2 or even worse 0-3...
So I would advise picking your strongest 4 picks (regardless of time of game) for the week and sticking with it when dealing with 4 team 13 point teasers...
I actually like the CAR pick and seeing value against a WAS team that has not been able to put up points... WAS has not put up more then 20 points so in theory if CAR can put up at least 2 TDs in the game you should be good...WAS games have also been every close (win or lose) so once again putting more value on getting 9 points...
Carolina +9-like this one alot against a bad wash offense
Eagles -2.5-key number off 3
Steelers 2.5-see minny
going to hit one of these teasers for the 1st round of games...not sure about the later ones
I like the way you are thinking about it... I guess I would caution against too many picks... If you play 2 teasers, you can go 7-1 and end up just paying juice going 1-1 on your teasers...
Mathematically if you were to pick randomly you should go about 11-2 if you were to pick 13 games... So if you play 3 teasers (12 picks)...there is a good chance of going 1-2 or even worse 0-3...
So I would advise picking your strongest 4 picks (regardless of time of game) for the week and sticking with it when dealing with 4 team 13 point teasers...
I actually like the CAR pick and seeing value against a WAS team that has not been able to put up points... WAS has not put up more then 20 points so in theory if CAR can put up at least 2 TDs in the game you should be good...WAS games have also been every close (win or lose) so once again putting more value on getting 9 points...
Tough to call... I normally don't like teasing in the opposite direction of my pick (OAK) although NYG -2.5 seems like a no brainer so I can't argue with that.
I feel the same way as you about STL/TEN... Those are both my sides, there are good reasons why both should scare us, but I guess that's why they call it gambling...if you want to make money, you have to go against the BF's and Mannings of the world.
Put it this way, their both home dogs vs. public teams, and although one is in a good situational spot and gets more than 3 TD's, the other has Jeff Fisher as the coach and is divisional.
I'm sold on both, but not sure one is much better than the other.
There is a part of me that agrees with you about teasing OAK for more then 4 TDs with NYG's QB situation that even if manning plays they might limit his play and eat clock running the ball and giving the +13 points ATS more value...
Thanks for your help and please continue to posting on this weekly thread as I can tell you know what you are doing with the "art" of teasers...
Tough to call... I normally don't like teasing in the opposite direction of my pick (OAK) although NYG -2.5 seems like a no brainer so I can't argue with that.
I feel the same way as you about STL/TEN... Those are both my sides, there are good reasons why both should scare us, but I guess that's why they call it gambling...if you want to make money, you have to go against the BF's and Mannings of the world.
Put it this way, their both home dogs vs. public teams, and although one is in a good situational spot and gets more than 3 TD's, the other has Jeff Fisher as the coach and is divisional.
I'm sold on both, but not sure one is much better than the other.
There is a part of me that agrees with you about teasing OAK for more then 4 TDs with NYG's QB situation that even if manning plays they might limit his play and eat clock running the ball and giving the +13 points ATS more value...
Thanks for your help and please continue to posting on this weekly thread as I can tell you know what you are doing with the "art" of teasers...
Detroit lose by 24 last week vs. the Bears after playing their hearts out in the 1st half. Now they play imo a better Steelers team with Culpepper under center. They could easily get blow out like 38-10 or something like that. As far a teasing dogs I would tease Cincy +24 which I think is a live dog. Even the Jets +11 looks good as I see that game being a grind it out type of affair with that Jets D as an ace in the hole.
I'm playing a 3 team 10.5 pt teaser Vikings -1, Steelers -1.5 and Pats +7.5
I will take DET off of consideration as I think I can find better picks this week...
GL on your teaser... You have some great numbers and seemed to have done the math/numbers well even though you had to cross the zero on NE...
Detroit lose by 24 last week vs. the Bears after playing their hearts out in the 1st half. Now they play imo a better Steelers team with Culpepper under center. They could easily get blow out like 38-10 or something like that. As far a teasing dogs I would tease Cincy +24 which I think is a live dog. Even the Jets +11 looks good as I see that game being a grind it out type of affair with that Jets D as an ace in the hole.
I'm playing a 3 team 10.5 pt teaser Vikings -1, Steelers -1.5 and Pats +7.5
I will take DET off of consideration as I think I can find better picks this week...
GL on your teaser... You have some great numbers and seemed to have done the math/numbers well even though you had to cross the zero on NE...
And wake up tomorrow morning to put the plays in when I am more clear minded then forcing a decision when I am tired...
But I am worried that I will wkae up tommorow morning and find that PHI and/or NYG shifted to -3 or are off the board/circled... So I feel some pressure to lock in plays tonight...
But I figure if I wake up and my picks arent there, I will simply adjust and decrease my bet...
And wake up tomorrow morning to put the plays in when I am more clear minded then forcing a decision when I am tired...
But I am worried that I will wkae up tommorow morning and find that PHI and/or NYG shifted to -3 or are off the board/circled... So I feel some pressure to lock in plays tonight...
But I figure if I wake up and my picks arent there, I will simply adjust and decrease my bet...
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.