Hey Cover Brothers, long time viewer, first time poster. Looking for some insight on OKC v Utah game tonight. Started as pickem now @ Utah -1.5
With Utah being away and looking at the both recent wins/losses/schedule/talent for each team doesn't this line seem a bit off? OKC has owned Utah at home historically and has been playing great ball as of late. Lot of folks must think Utah is going to win this game for them to be giving point on the road no?
Well since I don't believe that many ppl are actually betting on Utah tonight, I am going to chalk it up as a Reverse Line Movement.
Utah covers and might WIN outright this evening, this line is begging for OKC $$$..... (What do you think boys!?!?!)
Hey Cover Brothers, long time viewer, first time poster. Looking for some insight on OKC v Utah game tonight. Started as pickem now @ Utah -1.5
With Utah being away and looking at the both recent wins/losses/schedule/talent for each team doesn't this line seem a bit off? OKC has owned Utah at home historically and has been playing great ball as of late. Lot of folks must think Utah is going to win this game for them to be giving point on the road no?
Well since I don't believe that many ppl are actually betting on Utah tonight, I am going to chalk it up as a Reverse Line Movement.
Utah covers and might WIN outright this evening, this line is begging for OKC $$$..... (What do you think boys!?!?!)
4 is too much. at least -2 or -3, but they opened at -1
the "pros" are definitely on Utah so i guess that's why there is reverse line movement. they came off an impressive win against the Wizards
the Jazz have the more impressive 3 game win streak going into this matchup faced against the Wiz, Bucks and Blazers 2 of them on the road, which is better than any opponent OKC has faced the last 3 games.. Knicks? Lakers? and Pelicans? all at home? easiest 3 game streak ever
but these are two good teams, i'd say they are about equal. it really comes down to this.. are the Jazz good enough to win their 3rd straight game on the road? they haven't done it this season or last
i'm taking the Thunder despite RLM and all the public being on them. maybe Oladipo plays and the line reverts back to -1. who knows this will be close
4 is too much. at least -2 or -3, but they opened at -1
the "pros" are definitely on Utah so i guess that's why there is reverse line movement. they came off an impressive win against the Wizards
the Jazz have the more impressive 3 game win streak going into this matchup faced against the Wiz, Bucks and Blazers 2 of them on the road, which is better than any opponent OKC has faced the last 3 games.. Knicks? Lakers? and Pelicans? all at home? easiest 3 game streak ever
but these are two good teams, i'd say they are about equal. it really comes down to this.. are the Jazz good enough to win their 3rd straight game on the road? they haven't done it this season or last
i'm taking the Thunder despite RLM and all the public being on them. maybe Oladipo plays and the line reverts back to -1. who knows this will be close
They have, but I think the Jazz are still the more well rounded team, and any given day don't need great offense to win.
OKC probably has the higher ceiling just due to their potential and usually having the best player on the court.
We all know how good OKC "can" be when everyone's playing well but we've seen too many times where Westbrook has gotten little to no help. It's a liability, bottom line.
They have, but I think the Jazz are still the more well rounded team, and any given day don't need great offense to win.
OKC probably has the higher ceiling just due to their potential and usually having the best player on the court.
We all know how good OKC "can" be when everyone's playing well but we've seen too many times where Westbrook has gotten little to no help. It's a liability, bottom line.
Hey Cover Brothers, long time
viewer, first time poster. Looking for some insight on OKC v Utah game
tonight. Started as pickem now @ Utah -1.5
With Utah being away and looking at the both recent wins/losses/schedule/talent for each team doesn't this line seem a bit off? OKC has owned Utah at home historically and has been playing great ball as of late. Lot of folks must think Utah is going to win this game for them to be giving point on the road no?
Well since I don't believe that many ppl are actually betting on Utah tonight, I am going to chalk it up as a Reverse Line Movement.
Utah covers and might WIN outright this evening, this line is begging for OKC $$$..... (What do you think boys!?!?!)
For
the first bolded part ... I don't think how a team has played in the
last few games is especially relevant, ESPECIALLY if we think Vegas is
already accounting for that line. Fading the hot team is often the
"pro" play. I disagree that Oklahoma is the more talented team without
Kanter and possibly Oladipo. I think you are just star-struck by
Westbrook. And also, how the Thunder have done historically at home
against the Jazz against the Jazz is completely irrelevant. It's a
throw-away stat. The Thunder have not even played the Jazz in OKC this
season even once. How the Durant teams did against a different cast of
characters from the Jazz in seasons past is irrelevant.
As for
the second bolded part, why are you dismissing this as reverse line
movement? What does that mean (not what does RLM mean, what do you mean
to simply "chalk it up to" RLM?") Dismissing RLM because "pro money
must be on the Jazz" is not a good strategy.
I bet player props for a living, but I take some MLs. I'd certainly lean Jazz tonight, if forced to pick a side.
Hey Cover Brothers, long time
viewer, first time poster. Looking for some insight on OKC v Utah game
tonight. Started as pickem now @ Utah -1.5
With Utah being away and looking at the both recent wins/losses/schedule/talent for each team doesn't this line seem a bit off? OKC has owned Utah at home historically and has been playing great ball as of late. Lot of folks must think Utah is going to win this game for them to be giving point on the road no?
Well since I don't believe that many ppl are actually betting on Utah tonight, I am going to chalk it up as a Reverse Line Movement.
Utah covers and might WIN outright this evening, this line is begging for OKC $$$..... (What do you think boys!?!?!)
For
the first bolded part ... I don't think how a team has played in the
last few games is especially relevant, ESPECIALLY if we think Vegas is
already accounting for that line. Fading the hot team is often the
"pro" play. I disagree that Oklahoma is the more talented team without
Kanter and possibly Oladipo. I think you are just star-struck by
Westbrook. And also, how the Thunder have done historically at home
against the Jazz against the Jazz is completely irrelevant. It's a
throw-away stat. The Thunder have not even played the Jazz in OKC this
season even once. How the Durant teams did against a different cast of
characters from the Jazz in seasons past is irrelevant.
As for
the second bolded part, why are you dismissing this as reverse line
movement? What does that mean (not what does RLM mean, what do you mean
to simply "chalk it up to" RLM?") Dismissing RLM because "pro money
must be on the Jazz" is not a good strategy.
I bet player props for a living, but I take some MLs. I'd certainly lean Jazz tonight, if forced to pick a side.
I don't think past history is irrelevant and should be taken into account for every sport and spot regardless of who is currently on the team, as well as a bunch of other factors. But agreed OKC is substantially different then last years team obviously.
I also think that both teams are both reasonably even talent wise (Both either Top of pact B's, or Bottom of pack A's) but not depth wise. Karma made a good point that Utah's 3 gm win streak was a bit better then OKC's which may explain the line a bit better so mayb RLM was not the case....Still think that the line is designed to get OKC $ though, and thus the play is Utah or no play.
I don't think past history is irrelevant and should be taken into account for every sport and spot regardless of who is currently on the team, as well as a bunch of other factors. But agreed OKC is substantially different then last years team obviously.
I also think that both teams are both reasonably even talent wise (Both either Top of pact B's, or Bottom of pack A's) but not depth wise. Karma made a good point that Utah's 3 gm win streak was a bit better then OKC's which may explain the line a bit better so mayb RLM was not the case....Still think that the line is designed to get OKC $ though, and thus the play is Utah or no play.
I don't think past history is irrelevant and should be taken into account for every sport and spot regardless of who is currently on the team, as well as a bunch of other factors. But agreed OKC is substantially different then last years team obviously.
I also think that both teams are both reasonably even talent wise (Both either Top of pact B's, or Bottom of pack A's) but not depth wise. Karma made a good point that Utah's 3 gm win streak was a bit better then OKC's which may explain the line a bit better so mayb RLM was not the case....Still think that the line is designed to get OKC $ though, and thus the play is Utah or no play.
I disagree because:
1) The Jazz only play 2 games a year in Oklahoma City, making the data not very useful based on sample size alone.
2) I see no evidence that suggests how previous "Jazz" teams did against previous "Thunder" teams is predictive. I use these team names in quotes because every year they are a completely different set of players. I would generally call this data from previous seasons "not very important". In this particular case, with the Thunder losing Durant and the Jazz getting much deeper and healthier, I would call this particular data point from last season "irrelevant". Here are the starting lineups from last year's Jazz-Thunder matchup on December 13:
Derrick Favors Gordon Hayward Rodney Hood Alec Burks Trey Lyles
Kevin Durant Russell Westbrook Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Andre Roberson
In my opinion, using this game as ANY part of your calculation for handicapping tongiht's game, you are making a mistake.
3) Unless you guys are using an incredibly precise algorithm, you have no idea if Vegas is already accounting for any narratives like this, anyway.
I don't think past history is irrelevant and should be taken into account for every sport and spot regardless of who is currently on the team, as well as a bunch of other factors. But agreed OKC is substantially different then last years team obviously.
I also think that both teams are both reasonably even talent wise (Both either Top of pact B's, or Bottom of pack A's) but not depth wise. Karma made a good point that Utah's 3 gm win streak was a bit better then OKC's which may explain the line a bit better so mayb RLM was not the case....Still think that the line is designed to get OKC $ though, and thus the play is Utah or no play.
I disagree because:
1) The Jazz only play 2 games a year in Oklahoma City, making the data not very useful based on sample size alone.
2) I see no evidence that suggests how previous "Jazz" teams did against previous "Thunder" teams is predictive. I use these team names in quotes because every year they are a completely different set of players. I would generally call this data from previous seasons "not very important". In this particular case, with the Thunder losing Durant and the Jazz getting much deeper and healthier, I would call this particular data point from last season "irrelevant". Here are the starting lineups from last year's Jazz-Thunder matchup on December 13:
Derrick Favors Gordon Hayward Rodney Hood Alec Burks Trey Lyles
Kevin Durant Russell Westbrook Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Andre Roberson
In my opinion, using this game as ANY part of your calculation for handicapping tongiht's game, you are making a mistake.
3) Unless you guys are using an incredibly precise algorithm, you have no idea if Vegas is already accounting for any narratives like this, anyway.
The Thunder are 1-1 in Utah this year. They won once by 2. They lost the other time by 20. The +18 point differential for Utah is much more useful than the 1-1 record from a data perspective. Those games are certainly relevant.
The problem with using some of these stats from past years - how a team did after 2 road wins, how a team did in a particular city, etc - is that either (1) the sample size is too small, or (2) you go so far back in time that the data becomes too skewed.
The Thunder are 1-1 in Utah this year. They won once by 2. They lost the other time by 20. The +18 point differential for Utah is much more useful than the 1-1 record from a data perspective. Those games are certainly relevant.
The problem with using some of these stats from past years - how a team did after 2 road wins, how a team did in a particular city, etc - is that either (1) the sample size is too small, or (2) you go so far back in time that the data becomes too skewed.
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