Record: 14-18
The Pick:
Nuggets -4 over Thunder
The Nuggets almost certainly won't make the playoffs now that the Blazers won last night. They'd have to win out and the Blazers have to lose out.
But that hasn't dampened the spirits of the Nuggets who are on a nice little roll and can get us a cover here against a team that has almost nothing to play for.
And what they are playing for is an affront to the Nuggets making it MORE likely the Nuggets come out extra motivated.
1. The Nuggets
Do they have the motivation. Yes, it is a must win. And I love the "underdog mentality" (powerful) lip service Coach Malone is playing this up as:
"We're still alive and we're going to fight and fight and fight until they tell us to go home," Nuggets coach Michael Malone said after the 122-106 win over the Pelicans. "It's funny, we lose a game in Charlotte and everybody is ready to say we're done. We're not done."
Believing the world thinks you have no chance is very powerful, especially to egomaniacs on the hardwood.
The Nuggets are also on a covering hot streak in their last 4 as they ride this underdog wave:
@Miami 116-113 W +3.5 (outright win)
@New Orleans 134-131 W+2.5 (outright win)
@Houston 104-110 W+7.5 (lost game but covered)
vs. New Orleans 122-106 W -7.5 (outright win)
2. The Thunder
Amazingly, and you know I love streaks, they've lost NINE in a row to OKC and are 2-7 ATS against them.
That is a GOOD thing as there is pent up frustration here and now the Nuggets are on the bring of being eliminated and OKC plays with the 6th seed locked up. That is a spot you should win in and end this streak against a common WC opponent.
Moreover OKC has sputtered to the finish line going 2-3 ATS in their last 5 and 2-3 SU.
And this also included being against an injured Memphis team that couldn't play Conely (they played a rookie at PG that game and only won by 3 in the final seconds) because of an eye injury. They could easily be 1-4 as that game came down to a few Westbrook BOMB threes.
So we take the hotter team vs. a team with everything locked up limping home.
3. Westbrook's Triple Double record.
He needs one more to break Oscar Robertson's record.
So we have two forces working FOR US in taking Denver.
ONE - The Thunder will be looking to get Westbrook that record. That is a good thing. They did the same thing against the lowly Suns. Here was Russ' line:
6-25 2-12 3pters and 5 personal fouls with 23 points.
That's not efficient folks. When teams defer to ONE player for a record, they usually do not come away victorious.
We know it because they lost to the worst team in the league by 21 points (the Nets are not worse all healthy right now).
For god's sake, Russ was attempting to assist and rebound himself in that game and openly admitted it.
I look for a similar thing to happen tonight.
And wouldn't it be great for the Nuggets to take offense to this and swarm him to prevent it from happening on their floor as his teammates defer open shots just to get him the record?
That's a perfect scenario for an even more motivated Nuggets team.
3. The final home game
FINALLY, this if the final home game for the Nuggets.
Even with this slim outside shot, do you want to be eliminated on your home floor?
Do you want the Thunder, with nothing to play for but one players record, which should disrupt all their play, beating you in this game?
That is powerful. The very last game of the season has meaning. People turn out. And they'll turn out to see Russ. And don't think these players don't take offense to potentially some of their home fans cheering him on.
Lots of little pieces here put together like a jigsaw puzzle to get us an outright win with a reasonable line to cover. The season is coming to an end and I don't prefer playoff basketball over the regular season. Playing ONE game a day max hasn't been working this year. I won't be a madman and continue down the same path. Like poker, to win you have to mix it up against your opponent (the book is the opponent here).