Lean: Toronto -4': Which of the worse teams to side with? I'm not sure but based upon pure historical results i will have to choose the home team as the home team is 8-3 ATS. In addition the favorite is 80% winner ATS between these 2 teams. Toronto has won the last 5 home games in this series all were over the 4' here.
Lean: Philly +4: Philly has been playing great ball so far this season. Even in their losses, they have been very close. However, with NY we don't know what this team will bring every night. The consistent play of Philly has me lean towards them and with all of the athletic wing players they can throw at Melo and Amare' i am thinking that Philly can suffocate and contain the big 2. Unless NY has some perimeter shooters they will end up relying on Melo going Iso which plays into Philly's hands.
Lean: Boston -5': I probably wouldn't play this game but i lean towards the home team. No Jason Kidd and i'm not sure Delonte can handle Rondo. Boston lost their last game and had lots of time to practice and get things right. Take into account that Dallas hasn't played very well on the road yet. They have spurts and I think Boston has more to gain as they haven't beaten a playoff team yet.
Lean: Chi/Was UN 181: After running and chasing the Twolves i suspect that Chicago will slow the game down especially at home where they tend to keep their opponents under 70ppg. Also, Washington is 1-8 in the O/U so they aren't playing that great offensively either, which explains why they only have one win which was against one of the lowest scoring teams in Toronto. It will be fun to watch Rose and Wall go against one another. I just don't see Wall getting much support when he dishes the ball as Chicago has a defensive frontline to contest whatever Washington has to present.
Lean: None: I would like to take New Orleans as a home dog, but after looking at how they do at home, they have only covered once which was a SU win against Boston. This would make me lean towards OKC, but they can't win by more than 5 points on the road this season. I'm not sure where to side on the total since OKC is an uptempo team and NO is a defensive team. The last 5 games have gone under but those totals were 10 points higher than what the line is for tonight's game.
Lean: SAS -6': I don't like this line as it seems a little high. I know SAS is perfect at home, but they have no Ginobili and they are playing a fast paced team in the Rockets, that got their first road win, who will make Duncan ineffective in this game. It will be about tempo and lately SAS have sped things up which plays into Houston's hands. I still don't know how the Rockets will react after their first road win. Will the momentum carry them or will they revert to their DD ppg road loss average?
Lean: NJN +12: The Nets have a better road than home record. Deron Williams has plenty of experience playing against the Nuggets while in Utah and some of the other players on the Nets bench used to play in the Western Conference and are familiar with the thin air. Let's not forget we can't use historical data since all the previous meetings were before the Melo and Williams trade. Also, Denver has been playing pretty poorly the last 3 games and you still have a banged up Nene and Ty Lawson.
Lakers -2: I got to take my Lakers here. They have been pretty successful against Utah and this Utah team isn't as good as previous years. This will be a match of styles and this new Utah has a big frontline that will match up against the Lakers frontline. Bynum + Gasol against Jefferson + Millsap. Let's not forget the x-factor: Kobe Bryant, the Western conference player of the week. He has been on fire since his wrist injury and all these things that would keep other players down seem to make him play even better. I know the Lakers haven't won a road game yet and Utah hasn't loss, but both of those records will have to change and tonight will be the night.
Portland -3: This team is rolling right now and it's tough to play in Portland. Orlando isnt as good as last year and don't have the personnel to keep up with Portland. Portland has Camby, Thomas, Smith, and even Aldridge to help on Howard. Plus Portland has so many tweeners to cheat off their men and help on Howard (Matthews, Batum, Wallace). Plus Portland has lost yet and have played better competition this year than Orlando and when Orlando did play playoff teams, they have lost both games (Chicago and Atlanta).
Waiting for Mia-LAC and Ind-Atl lines. I am thinking LAC if they are a home underdog based upon the Miami collapse and LAC similar structure as GSW with guard play and the fact that LAC beat Miami at home last year.
Let me know your opinions and comments!