2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record: 3 - 2 @60%for+0.8 Units
Tue 04/19
#2: OVER 192.5 NYK/BOS
I wasn't going to make a play here but with Billups out (most likely) I like the OVER in this one. Why? Well, I think Toney Douglas will be a difference maker tonight. Billups prefers to slow-things down and play the half-court game. Douglas, on the other hand, is a young player who likes to 'run-and-gun'. Look at what he has done in the 6 games that Billups missed earlier this year in March: 16.8 ppg and 6.8 assists per game average, while shooting around 50% from the field. Those are impressive numbers. What is more impressive is that the Knicks averaged 111 points per game in those, with the O/U going 4-2. The OVER actually hit in 3 straight games prior to Billups coming back, indicating to me that he was more efficient running the team after a couple of games 'under his belt'. Here's the breakdown of Knicks' points in those games and their opponent:
vs NOH 107 points vs CLE 115 points @ ATL 92 points vs UTA 131 points @ MEM 110 points @ DAL 109 points
Sure, Utah and Cleveland are 'cup-cakes' when it comes to defense, but the other 4 are not. Still, Knicks averaged 105 ppg against those 4 squads with Douglas running the show. What else is interesting is that Douglas has the highest +/- number of any Knicks player this year. It's +110. Sure he's only been on the 'floor' for 50% of the total minutes and played a lot of those minutes against opposing teams' backups, but that's still impressive. The next closest was Walker at +90. Billups was on the floor for 16% of Knicks' minutes (he got traded mid-season, remember) and his +/- number was -15. Hmmm. When you look at Net48 (team's net points per 48 mins of playing time for the player) for each, Douglas is +2.7 while billups is -1.1 That's a variance of almost 4 additional points. It's pretty much tells us that Douglas increases New York's scoring by 4 points over Billups, in a 48 minute game. I don't expect him to play 48, but I wouldn't be surprised if he logs 40+ in this one tonight.
I don't think New York can win playing at Boston's tempo. I expect them to push the pace with Douglas in this one and look to run the ball any chance they have. Douglas should be able to generate a number of open looks for his teammates as I expect the Knicks to shoot a higher percentage in this one. I'm not really talking about the Celtics, as I expect them to get their points as well, going up against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The UNDER hit in the first game, but overall the O/U is actually 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
New York were held to 85 points in the first game of the playoffs. The O/U is 2-0 this year following a Knicks game where they've been held to 85 points or less. It's actualy 8-2 in the past couple of years in this scenario. The posted total was 197.5 in the first game. Now it's 192.5 for today's matchup. That's 3 buckets of 'value'! In my opinion people are expecting a lower scoring game because Billups is out. I actually expect it to be a higher scoring affair, for exactly the same reason.
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
-------------------------------------------------------------- 'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record: 3 - 2 @60%for+0.8 Units
Tue 04/19
#2: OVER 192.5 NYK/BOS
I wasn't going to make a play here but with Billups out (most likely) I like the OVER in this one. Why? Well, I think Toney Douglas will be a difference maker tonight. Billups prefers to slow-things down and play the half-court game. Douglas, on the other hand, is a young player who likes to 'run-and-gun'. Look at what he has done in the 6 games that Billups missed earlier this year in March: 16.8 ppg and 6.8 assists per game average, while shooting around 50% from the field. Those are impressive numbers. What is more impressive is that the Knicks averaged 111 points per game in those, with the O/U going 4-2. The OVER actually hit in 3 straight games prior to Billups coming back, indicating to me that he was more efficient running the team after a couple of games 'under his belt'. Here's the breakdown of Knicks' points in those games and their opponent:
vs NOH 107 points vs CLE 115 points @ ATL 92 points vs UTA 131 points @ MEM 110 points @ DAL 109 points
Sure, Utah and Cleveland are 'cup-cakes' when it comes to defense, but the other 4 are not. Still, Knicks averaged 105 ppg against those 4 squads with Douglas running the show. What else is interesting is that Douglas has the highest +/- number of any Knicks player this year. It's +110. Sure he's only been on the 'floor' for 50% of the total minutes and played a lot of those minutes against opposing teams' backups, but that's still impressive. The next closest was Walker at +90. Billups was on the floor for 16% of Knicks' minutes (he got traded mid-season, remember) and his +/- number was -15. Hmmm. When you look at Net48 (team's net points per 48 mins of playing time for the player) for each, Douglas is +2.7 while billups is -1.1 That's a variance of almost 4 additional points. It's pretty much tells us that Douglas increases New York's scoring by 4 points over Billups, in a 48 minute game. I don't expect him to play 48, but I wouldn't be surprised if he logs 40+ in this one tonight.
I don't think New York can win playing at Boston's tempo. I expect them to push the pace with Douglas in this one and look to run the ball any chance they have. Douglas should be able to generate a number of open looks for his teammates as I expect the Knicks to shoot a higher percentage in this one. I'm not really talking about the Celtics, as I expect them to get their points as well, going up against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The UNDER hit in the first game, but overall the O/U is actually 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston.
New York were held to 85 points in the first game of the playoffs. The O/U is 2-0 this year following a Knicks game where they've been held to 85 points or less. It's actualy 8-2 in the past couple of years in this scenario. The posted total was 197.5 in the first game. Now it's 192.5 for today's matchup. That's 3 buckets of 'value'! In my opinion people are expecting a lower scoring game because Billups is out. I actually expect it to be a higher scoring affair, for exactly the same reason.
Good luck!
_________________ '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
-------------------------------------------------------------- 'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
i thought it was kind of odd that the line went down so much just because Billups is out.
the NYK can shoot lights out and even with the BOS defense. BOS can score lights out too if they need to, they just prefer not to if they can avoid it.
Tony and Rondo running point should and could mean a lot of running.
i thought it was kind of odd that the line went down so much just because Billups is out.
the NYK can shoot lights out and even with the BOS defense. BOS can score lights out too if they need to, they just prefer not to if they can avoid it.
Tony and Rondo running point should and could mean a lot of running.
i thought it was kind of odd that the line went down so much just because Billups is out.
the NYK can shoot lights out and even with the BOS defense. BOS can score lights out too if they need to, they just prefer not to if they can avoid it.
Tony and Rondo running point should and could mean a lot of running.
i thought it was kind of odd that the line went down so much just because Billups is out.
the NYK can shoot lights out and even with the BOS defense. BOS can score lights out too if they need to, they just prefer not to if they can avoid it.
Tony and Rondo running point should and could mean a lot of running.
Now that the hype about Crafword record in Dallas games is on for an obvious reason (IMO) to balance the betting on Mavs - Blzs game - do you think Mavs 14-2 HR against the BLZs is a reason enough to back Mavs-3.5?
Now that the hype about Crafword record in Dallas games is on for an obvious reason (IMO) to balance the betting on Mavs - Blzs game - do you think Mavs 14-2 HR against the BLZs is a reason enough to back Mavs-3.5?
Now that the hype about Crafword record in Dallas games is on for an obvious reason (IMO) to balance the betting on Mavs - Blzs game - do you think Mavs 14-2 HR against the BLZs is a reason enough to back Mavs-3.5?
Careful, Refs bailed Dallas out last game, they should have lost straight up.
Now that the hype about Crafword record in Dallas games is on for an obvious reason (IMO) to balance the betting on Mavs - Blzs game - do you think Mavs 14-2 HR against the BLZs is a reason enough to back Mavs-3.5?
Careful, Refs bailed Dallas out last game, they should have lost straight up.
Now that the hype about Crafword record in Dallas games is on for an obvious reason (IMO) to balance the betting on Mavs - Blzs game - do you think Mavs 14-2 HR against the BLZs is a reason enough to back Mavs-3.5?
The 'value' is most definitely on the Mavs, but I'm not touching this game!
Now that the hype about Crafword record in Dallas games is on for an obvious reason (IMO) to balance the betting on Mavs - Blzs game - do you think Mavs 14-2 HR against the BLZs is a reason enough to back Mavs-3.5?
The 'value' is most definitely on the Mavs, but I'm not touching this game!
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