This is probably the closest I've seen all of my lines to the actual lines since I started using this. As of right now, there are only two games that meet my +/- 6 points criteria, and even they just barely eclipse it (Houston/OK City - no difference; LAC/Washington - 6.1 point difference). There are two games that don't have line out but you can see my estimate above. Had a good day yesterday and I'm not going to push it. I will need to see some of these lines move throughout the day otherwise, there may be a small one unit play or no plays at all.
This is probably the closest I've seen all of my lines to the actual lines since I started using this. As of right now, there are only two games that meet my +/- 6 points criteria, and even they just barely eclipse it (Houston/OK City - no difference; LAC/Washington - 6.1 point difference). There are two games that don't have line out but you can see my estimate above. Had a good day yesterday and I'm not going to push it. I will need to see some of these lines move throughout the day otherwise, there may be a small one unit play or no plays at all.
I'm going to lock this play in right now for 1 unit. Houston is actually pretty good with their defense at home (ranked 11th in home PPG defense). These are two top tier offenses and from some of the other lines I've seen thrown around, it seems like this one should be in the 205-207 range. The fact that it's not tells me something in favor of this under play. These teams have played twice this season, finishing at 203 points the first time around and 193 the second. As these teams become more familiar with each other, I expect the final score to be similiar to the most recent outing, rather than the first. Each offenses tendencies are becoming clear to the other, and I look for that to bring both of these teams' scoring averages down a few points tonight.
I'm going to lock this play in right now for 1 unit. Houston is actually pretty good with their defense at home (ranked 11th in home PPG defense). These are two top tier offenses and from some of the other lines I've seen thrown around, it seems like this one should be in the 205-207 range. The fact that it's not tells me something in favor of this under play. These teams have played twice this season, finishing at 203 points the first time around and 193 the second. As these teams become more familiar with each other, I expect the final score to be similiar to the most recent outing, rather than the first. Each offenses tendencies are becoming clear to the other, and I look for that to bring both of these teams' scoring averages down a few points tonight.
Cashin - that's exactly what I plan on doing. I locked in that Thunder line because I liked the under even before crunching my numbers. If yesterday was any indication, these totals probably won't be moving a whole lot. It seems to me like the totals only jump up or down significantly when there are a couple of games; we've got a full slate today and a lot of room for people to spread their money and bets around.
Cleveland/Indiana came out at 192, so not even a one-point difference from my projected totals. Minnesota/Charlotte is a line I will keep my eye on. I'm showing, per Covers, that DJ Augustin is listed as 'probable' for tonight, which may help ignite an otherwise helpless (they have yet to break 90, home or away, this month). However, there's also the risk that there will be some "shaking out of the cobwebs." We'll see - it's like you said, not a whole lot of value right now and the last thing I need to do is start pushing.
Cashin - that's exactly what I plan on doing. I locked in that Thunder line because I liked the under even before crunching my numbers. If yesterday was any indication, these totals probably won't be moving a whole lot. It seems to me like the totals only jump up or down significantly when there are a couple of games; we've got a full slate today and a lot of room for people to spread their money and bets around.
Cleveland/Indiana came out at 192, so not even a one-point difference from my projected totals. Minnesota/Charlotte is a line I will keep my eye on. I'm showing, per Covers, that DJ Augustin is listed as 'probable' for tonight, which may help ignite an otherwise helpless (they have yet to break 90, home or away, this month). However, there's also the risk that there will be some "shaking out of the cobwebs." We'll see - it's like you said, not a whole lot of value right now and the last thing I need to do is start pushing.
afgking4life - I don't normally deal with a whole lot of half-bets. It appears that the first two times these teams played this year, the first half total went flying over the posted line. Looking at the total game scores for those two games, we see totals of 208 then 200. The difference this time around is Denver is more limited than they have been before, considering that Nene & Mozgov are listed as doubtful and Gallinari is still out indefinitely.
All of that being said, I think that 100.5 line may not be a bad take. You can see from my numbers above that my line is several points below the listed total (which has since gone down to 197.5 or 198), so for the game, I would lean under. However, looking at the box scores from these teams' first two games against one another, the first halves were considerably higher than the second half scoring:
Game 1: First Half - 111; Second Half - 97
Game 2: First Half - 117; Second Half - 83
This tells me that the first half has a much different pace between these two than the second. However, seeing that the opening total for the game was less than 200, it tells me the lines-makers are expecting familiarity between the two to take it's toll on the scoreboard. I don't really have a lean one way or the other on your first-half bet, but this is just some of the information I'd take into account.
afgking4life - I don't normally deal with a whole lot of half-bets. It appears that the first two times these teams played this year, the first half total went flying over the posted line. Looking at the total game scores for those two games, we see totals of 208 then 200. The difference this time around is Denver is more limited than they have been before, considering that Nene & Mozgov are listed as doubtful and Gallinari is still out indefinitely.
All of that being said, I think that 100.5 line may not be a bad take. You can see from my numbers above that my line is several points below the listed total (which has since gone down to 197.5 or 198), so for the game, I would lean under. However, looking at the box scores from these teams' first two games against one another, the first halves were considerably higher than the second half scoring:
Game 1: First Half - 111; Second Half - 97
Game 2: First Half - 117; Second Half - 83
This tells me that the first half has a much different pace between these two than the second. However, seeing that the opening total for the game was less than 200, it tells me the lines-makers are expecting familiarity between the two to take it's toll on the scoreboard. I don't really have a lean one way or the other on your first-half bet, but this is just some of the information I'd take into account.
first off, thanks RL for the time and effort you put into these numbers to help give us and yourself a guideline i see you have okc game to go under today, gl to you but i am an overs man and i will use your numbers to find the highest margin on over totals you have,,,the highest margin games are orl/phi and minn/char. since orl/phi game starts at 4pmpst and minn/char at 5pmpst, i will be able to bet first half of orl/phi and search for value as night progresses. gl to all tonight.
first off, thanks RL for the time and effort you put into these numbers to help give us and yourself a guideline i see you have okc game to go under today, gl to you but i am an overs man and i will use your numbers to find the highest margin on over totals you have,,,the highest margin games are orl/phi and minn/char. since orl/phi game starts at 4pmpst and minn/char at 5pmpst, i will be able to bet first half of orl/phi and search for value as night progresses. gl to all tonight.
iaathgtsl - I don't know how much you pay attention to line movement, but just make sure you do your research on that Orlando/Philadelphia game. As of right now, I'm showing 76% of bets on the OVER, while the line hasn't budged at all; that seems odd to me. I think your OVER play on the Minnesota/Charlotte has some value - my numbers suggest that it does, but I also (again - just looking at line movement) am showing that 70% of bets are on the under, while the line has actually increased to 193.5 (from 190.5). If I had to pick a full-game total from those two, I'd go with Minnesota/Charlotte, but good luck with whatever you choose.
iaathgtsl - I don't know how much you pay attention to line movement, but just make sure you do your research on that Orlando/Philadelphia game. As of right now, I'm showing 76% of bets on the OVER, while the line hasn't budged at all; that seems odd to me. I think your OVER play on the Minnesota/Charlotte has some value - my numbers suggest that it does, but I also (again - just looking at line movement) am showing that 70% of bets are on the under, while the line has actually increased to 193.5 (from 190.5). If I had to pick a full-game total from those two, I'd go with Minnesota/Charlotte, but good luck with whatever you choose.
RL, i dont cap at all, i tail. this is a post from i wrote today on someone else's wall:
TURN THE PAGE PEOPLE, i tailed and i lost, boo fucking hoo. good thing i tailed like 7 different cappers yesterday and heres how it went:
chi bulls -12 (L)
miami heat (W)
phoe suns (L)
mem griz (W)
detroit 4th qtr (W) nice system there LC
utah (L)
george mason (W)
loyola chi (W)
vatech/clem under (W)
vtech/clem under fh (W)
fla/baba over (L)
osu/minn over (W)
osu/minn over fh (W)
9-4 ok in my book,,,,keep picking em smartbets, maybe you will have the win that will turn me a profit day when other cappers fail,,,,sports betting is like playing the stock market,,,never put all your eggs in one basket,,,i like to diversify lol
RL, i dont cap at all, i tail. this is a post from i wrote today on someone else's wall:
TURN THE PAGE PEOPLE, i tailed and i lost, boo fucking hoo. good thing i tailed like 7 different cappers yesterday and heres how it went:
chi bulls -12 (L)
miami heat (W)
phoe suns (L)
mem griz (W)
detroit 4th qtr (W) nice system there LC
utah (L)
george mason (W)
loyola chi (W)
vatech/clem under (W)
vtech/clem under fh (W)
fla/baba over (L)
osu/minn over (W)
osu/minn over fh (W)
9-4 ok in my book,,,,keep picking em smartbets, maybe you will have the win that will turn me a profit day when other cappers fail,,,,sports betting is like playing the stock market,,,never put all your eggs in one basket,,,i like to diversify lol
yes, i put my trust in cappers here and for the most part, its going well. your numbers i use as guidelines and if you put the time and effort into making these numbers, i trust you. if you lose or numbers are off, i don't bash, i can take the punches. but like i say, i diversify so unless everyone on covers has a shit day, then i will feel it,,,hasn't happened yet
yes, i put my trust in cappers here and for the most part, its going well. your numbers i use as guidelines and if you put the time and effort into making these numbers, i trust you. if you lose or numbers are off, i don't bash, i can take the punches. but like i say, i diversify so unless everyone on covers has a shit day, then i will feel it,,,hasn't happened yet
last time i checked, a 9-4 day is better than a 4-0 day right? imho, in this business, its quantity over quality. if i choose 4 games, i could lose all 4 easily. if i select 13 options, risk is lower. its like a mutual fund, if i but stock in coke, johnson&johnson, walmart and home depot. i will have alot of bad days and alot of good days. if i buy a mutual fund, i will own 30 to 40 different companies and others will do good when some do bad to even it out. i dont ask people to think like i do, just understand it. best of luck today RL
last time i checked, a 9-4 day is better than a 4-0 day right? imho, in this business, its quantity over quality. if i choose 4 games, i could lose all 4 easily. if i select 13 options, risk is lower. its like a mutual fund, if i but stock in coke, johnson&johnson, walmart and home depot. i will have alot of bad days and alot of good days. if i buy a mutual fund, i will own 30 to 40 different companies and others will do good when some do bad to even it out. i dont ask people to think like i do, just understand it. best of luck today RL
Technically, a 1-3 day could be better than a 4-0 day; it all depends on how you pick your spots. Best of luck to you and if you tail any of my bets, I hope they hit for you.
Technically, a 1-3 day could be better than a 4-0 day; it all depends on how you pick your spots. Best of luck to you and if you tail any of my bets, I hope they hit for you.
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