Does anyone else see some value in the Under at 206?
-Looking back at all Thursday Night games this season (based on Covers closing line) the Under has cashed 24 times versus 11 times for the Over. Linesmakers do not give away money in heavily bet games and most people will want to bet an Over on a Nationally televised game.
-In their last three games before the break, the Cavs have gone over three in a row, while Denver has gone over in three of their last four before the break possibly increasing the total in tonight's tilt and giving further value to the Under.
-In their last match-up on Jan. 8th at Denver, the total closed at 202 and the final score was 99-97 with the Nuggets winning, a final total of 196. Both teams shot a respectable 45% from the field, over 40% from 3-point land, and put in 40 points from the charity stripe and still went under by 6. Yes Carmelo Anthony was out but I still don't think he is worth 4 points on a total. Add that this low scoring game was played at Denver where the Nuggets average roughly 5 more points per game than on the road.
-Last season, with a lot of the same cast of characters, these two teams played to a total of 193 and 209. In the game where they went over the total, the Cavs shot a ridiculous 57% from the field, while the Nuggets shot roughly 48% and put in 21 points from the charity and it still only eclipsed tonight's total by 3 points.
Does anyone else see some value in the Under at 206?
-Looking back at all Thursday Night games this season (based on Covers closing line) the Under has cashed 24 times versus 11 times for the Over. Linesmakers do not give away money in heavily bet games and most people will want to bet an Over on a Nationally televised game.
-In their last three games before the break, the Cavs have gone over three in a row, while Denver has gone over in three of their last four before the break possibly increasing the total in tonight's tilt and giving further value to the Under.
-In their last match-up on Jan. 8th at Denver, the total closed at 202 and the final score was 99-97 with the Nuggets winning, a final total of 196. Both teams shot a respectable 45% from the field, over 40% from 3-point land, and put in 40 points from the charity stripe and still went under by 6. Yes Carmelo Anthony was out but I still don't think he is worth 4 points on a total. Add that this low scoring game was played at Denver where the Nuggets average roughly 5 more points per game than on the road.
-Last season, with a lot of the same cast of characters, these two teams played to a total of 193 and 209. In the game where they went over the total, the Cavs shot a ridiculous 57% from the field, while the Nuggets shot roughly 48% and put in 21 points from the charity and it still only eclipsed tonight's total by 3 points.
We spend an hour or two, talk to a few people (maybe) and then start a thread just like this one and 'think' we have the answer... IMO if the line looks fishy and you are not a quality capper (i.e. don't or can't make a living from gambling) then the millions of dollars that are put into making lines will simply make you look stupid if not in the short term then over a long period of time.
hmmm....
Agree with J-T here and if there is a play for me it will be on the Over as it looks like the least obvious play, just a wait and see now until game time for a line movement for I 'lock it in Eddie' (Australian term there boys and gals)
We spend an hour or two, talk to a few people (maybe) and then start a thread just like this one and 'think' we have the answer... IMO if the line looks fishy and you are not a quality capper (i.e. don't or can't make a living from gambling) then the millions of dollars that are put into making lines will simply make you look stupid if not in the short term then over a long period of time.
hmmm....
Agree with J-T here and if there is a play for me it will be on the Over as it looks like the least obvious play, just a wait and see now until game time for a line movement for I 'lock it in Eddie' (Australian term there boys and gals)
I thought the same thing at first. I thought all the stats pointed to an under and they put out a total at 206 which should probably be a sign to take the over. However there is a reason why this line is set a tad higher and it has nothing to do with the rather short history these two teams have with each other over the past two seasons.
In the Cavs last six games which happen to be their last six home games they are averaging 108.8 point per game. In their last five games they are shooting 51.7% from the field. In three of their last six home games, the Cavs have scored more than 113 and in those games they have shot a very high % from either the field and/or 3-pt. Also it should be noted that these high scoring games were against the Magic, Knicks, and Clippers respectively.
Denver averages 107.2 per game and is averaging 109.6 in their last five games.
If anything, the stats point to a clear over based on how these teams have been playing right before the break.
What I'm betting on is the following:
1) The over will be a popular side in a heavily bet game so I should be getting a somewhat favorable line. 2) In their brief history over the past two seasons, these teams have played each other at a slower pace and lower scoring total. 3) The total may be inflated somewhat due to the high scoring these two teams posted before the all-star break. 4) The Nuggets score less on the road than they do at home. 5) These teams will not keep shooting at the high pace they were before the break, which is well above their season averages, and may be a little bit rusty and out of sync coming off such a long break.
This is not a record setting bet for me by any means. It is just another game that I see enough of an edge that I would be willing to make a 1-2 unit bet. I know that these teams are more than capable of coming out and playing at a fast pace and shooting the lights out to the tune of a 220 point total. I also know that posting such a write-up for me is usually the kiss of death but I will try not to be superstitious. I just thought I would share my angle and information with the board. Good luck with whatever you play.
I thought the same thing at first. I thought all the stats pointed to an under and they put out a total at 206 which should probably be a sign to take the over. However there is a reason why this line is set a tad higher and it has nothing to do with the rather short history these two teams have with each other over the past two seasons.
In the Cavs last six games which happen to be their last six home games they are averaging 108.8 point per game. In their last five games they are shooting 51.7% from the field. In three of their last six home games, the Cavs have scored more than 113 and in those games they have shot a very high % from either the field and/or 3-pt. Also it should be noted that these high scoring games were against the Magic, Knicks, and Clippers respectively.
Denver averages 107.2 per game and is averaging 109.6 in their last five games.
If anything, the stats point to a clear over based on how these teams have been playing right before the break.
What I'm betting on is the following:
1) The over will be a popular side in a heavily bet game so I should be getting a somewhat favorable line. 2) In their brief history over the past two seasons, these teams have played each other at a slower pace and lower scoring total. 3) The total may be inflated somewhat due to the high scoring these two teams posted before the all-star break. 4) The Nuggets score less on the road than they do at home. 5) These teams will not keep shooting at the high pace they were before the break, which is well above their season averages, and may be a little bit rusty and out of sync coming off such a long break.
This is not a record setting bet for me by any means. It is just another game that I see enough of an edge that I would be willing to make a 1-2 unit bet. I know that these teams are more than capable of coming out and playing at a fast pace and shooting the lights out to the tune of a 220 point total. I also know that posting such a write-up for me is usually the kiss of death but I will try not to be superstitious. I just thought I would share my angle and information with the board. Good luck with whatever you play.
I thought the same thing at first. I thought all the stats pointed to an under and they put out a total at 206 which should probably be a sign to take the over. However there is a reason why this line is set a tad higher and it has nothing to do with the rather short history these two teams have with each other over the past two seasons.
In the Cavs last six games which happen to be their last six home games they are averaging 108.8 point per game. In their last five games they are shooting 51.7% from the field. In three of their last six home games, the Cavs have scored more than 113 and in those games they have shot a very high % from either the field and/or 3-pt. Also it should be noted that these high scoring games were against the Magic, Knicks, and Clippers respectively.
Denver averages 107.2 per game and is averaging 109.6 in their last five games.
If anything, the stats point to a clear over based on how these teams have been playing right before the break.
What I'm betting on is the following:
1) The over will be a popular side in a heavily bet game so I should be getting a somewhat favorable line. 2) In their brief history over the past two seasons, these teams have played each other at a slower pace and lower scoring total. 3) The total may be inflated somewhat due to the high scoring these two teams posted before the all-star break. 4) The Nuggets score less on the road than they do at home. 5) These teams will not keep shooting at the high pace they were before the break, which is well above their season averages, and may be a little bit rusty and out of sync coming off such a long break.
This is not a record setting bet for me by any means. It is just another game that I see enough of an edge that I would be willing to make a 1-2 unit bet. I know that these teams are more than capable of coming out and playing at a fast pace and shooting the lights out to the tune of a 220 point total. I also know that posting such a write-up for me is usually the kiss of death but I will try not to be superstitious. I just thought I would share my angle and information with the board. Good luck with whatever you play.
this is well thought out
last years game where denver went in there and scored at will is in my memory
someone posted the heat vs denver in their next game as a monster play and hit it
I was thinking about that game last night when the heat opened at right around the same number that denver opened in miami
I thought the same thing at first. I thought all the stats pointed to an under and they put out a total at 206 which should probably be a sign to take the over. However there is a reason why this line is set a tad higher and it has nothing to do with the rather short history these two teams have with each other over the past two seasons.
In the Cavs last six games which happen to be their last six home games they are averaging 108.8 point per game. In their last five games they are shooting 51.7% from the field. In three of their last six home games, the Cavs have scored more than 113 and in those games they have shot a very high % from either the field and/or 3-pt. Also it should be noted that these high scoring games were against the Magic, Knicks, and Clippers respectively.
Denver averages 107.2 per game and is averaging 109.6 in their last five games.
If anything, the stats point to a clear over based on how these teams have been playing right before the break.
What I'm betting on is the following:
1) The over will be a popular side in a heavily bet game so I should be getting a somewhat favorable line. 2) In their brief history over the past two seasons, these teams have played each other at a slower pace and lower scoring total. 3) The total may be inflated somewhat due to the high scoring these two teams posted before the all-star break. 4) The Nuggets score less on the road than they do at home. 5) These teams will not keep shooting at the high pace they were before the break, which is well above their season averages, and may be a little bit rusty and out of sync coming off such a long break.
This is not a record setting bet for me by any means. It is just another game that I see enough of an edge that I would be willing to make a 1-2 unit bet. I know that these teams are more than capable of coming out and playing at a fast pace and shooting the lights out to the tune of a 220 point total. I also know that posting such a write-up for me is usually the kiss of death but I will try not to be superstitious. I just thought I would share my angle and information with the board. Good luck with whatever you play.
this is well thought out
last years game where denver went in there and scored at will is in my memory
someone posted the heat vs denver in their next game as a monster play and hit it
I was thinking about that game last night when the heat opened at right around the same number that denver opened in miami
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