It's no secret that when the Warriors and Knicks get together, the result is usually a high-scoring affair. Thus, we have one of the highest over/under totals of the season given by Vegas, which I believe actually is in the top three of highest spreads for the entire 2009-2010 campaign. So, right away we know Vegas is anticipating a very extremely high-paced matchup, which usually bodes well for the backer of the over.
Even before gathering any stats or player notes, there's one key component that I look at before any other in coming to a conclusion with any given bet - the psychological approach. Luckily for us, both teams are basically on the same mindset.
The Warriors were just blown out on national television two nights ago on the road in Utah, whereas the Knicks suffered the same fate in Portland at almost the same exact time on the same exact night, although that wasn't broadcasted nationally. Nonetheless, that last part doesn't matter. The fact remains that the season is just about over for two teams who had much higher expectations.
Throw in their usual tendencies to score points in bunches and you have the players on each side collectively thinking, "Fuck it, it's the end of the year, we're out of it, let's just have fun." That said, you can bet that this will be another one of those Warriors contests where each side is just running back-and-forth at "100 miles-an-hour" (To quote Warriors great play-by-play announcer Bob Fitzgerald) while dropping in buckets.
If it's stats you want, there are some glaring trends to note. For example, the over in Warriors games is 8-0 in their last eight games playing on one day's rest. It is also 6-1 in their last seven homes (The one under being that curious, rare off game against Dallas last weekend). Another trend I like is that the over is 9-2 in the Knicks' last 11 games against teams with losing records. That is a pretty underrated telling statistic because it gives you the approach the Knicks go into a game against a team on their own level.
As for injuries, it is unlikely Al Harrington will play, which hurts our bet a tad bit, given Harrington's history in Golden State, and the fact that he's a proven scorer. Obviously, you like to have as much as those guys as you can on the floor. Even so, it helps us at the same time because if he doesn't play, the Knicks will only have two guys playing that are over 6'8, which makes it a perfect matchup for the Warriors, thereby forcing the Knicks to go at their pace. On the flip side, MY BOY Ronny Turiaf and Chris Hunter are questionable... but those are the two biggest guys on the Golden State roster. Without them, you have 6'9 Anthony Tolliver (Who has really come a long way, by the way) as the tallest guy. Need I say more?
Yes, the 235.5 is very high to bite on, but I feel in this situation, it's worth it. I anticipate at least one team scoring in the mid-to-high-120's, if not both, which is actually what I predict: a score closely resembling 128-121, in favor of the Warriors, actually. Remember, if you're looking for a winner here, the Warriors have much more to play for, considering most of these guys want to be in "that game" where Nellie breaks the coaching record. If not, most of these underrated Warriors players will fall into obscurity as early as next season (Which I would hate to see happen).
Oh, and perhaps most importantly, it's in Oracle. I don't know what it is, whether it be in the air or caused by those great fans by the Bay, but there's always some sort of special aura when it comes to overs in Oracle. Maybe my biggest bet of the year (And I've been betting on NBA almost every single day over the past two seasons) happens right here.